(Title Image: Holiday Property Bond)
Last but not least in this “After the UK” series, a look at some of the potential intended and unintended consequences of independence – some of which might be addressed in greater detail at a later date if not already touched on previously.
It’s impossible to predict the future, but you can look at trends and the experiences of other nations to give hints as to what might happen if/when Wales becomes independent.
The obvious ones like currency, defence, cross-border cooperation, welfare, healthcare, tax etc. need a detailed look to do them justice (and I either already have or will do in the future). For this exercise, it’s worth focusing on those smaller issues which might not have crossed many people’s minds before.
Social & Household Impact
“Blood is thicker than water”, cross-border family ties would likely be unaffected but administratively different – Almost everyone reading this will have family or friends living in either, or more than one of, England (myself included), Cornwall, Scotland and Northern Ireland. People stop being family or friends because of an international border and civic nationalists don’t see anything wrong in being “foreign”. As long as the Common Travel Area remains intact in some form, you should be able to cross the border as many times as you like without passport checks.
We can learn a lot from the experiences of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. If you want one example, access to benefits (like child benefit) is generally based on residency and/or residency of children, but this may become complicated in a two-parent household where one works or lives in Wales and the other works in England.
A loss of British national identity may be difficult for some groups to accept – “Britain” isn’t going away and never will, but one phenomenon that’s emerged in some post-independence states is a nostalgia for what went before (Yugo-nostalgia, Soviet nostalgia, Ostalgie in East Germany, “West Brits” in the Irish Republic and Cultural Cringe in Australia, New Zealand and Canada). Wales has an inferiority complex, but it could be amplified (ironically) after independence and that may have important political consequences as I return to later.
Immigration and emigration patterns might change – This would be partly dependent on what immigration policies Wales adopts, but an international border with England is unlikely to end cross-border movement (particularly by students), while immigration from the rest of the world could increase (assuming Wales remains outside the EU) if Wales sets its own rules to fill labour shortages. I doubt the “brain drain” would completely stop, though it would be largely dependent on economic conditions at any given time and how porous the Anglo-Welsh border would be.
Racism, sexism, disability discrimination, homophobia etc. would still exist but would (hopefully) be easier to deal with – Wales won’t be a utopia after independence and it never will be, but the low political centre of gravity might make difficult social issues easier to deal with without the distractions of Westminister politics and with no room to hide for political leaders.
Cultural Impact
Independence might start a (brief) cultural renaissance – Independence could be the spark needed to foster increased creativity, innovation and risk-taking in the arts. You do get a sense that English-language culture in Wales is focused on achieving success and proving its worth at the UK level, or playing to stereotypes, instead of existing for its own sake. Independence would force us to look at ourselves through more critical eyes, which would have implications for politics, literature, performing arts, music and broadcasting.
English newspapers and news outlets might (but not necessarily would) start producing Welsh editions (The Welsh Media XI: The Press, Journalism & Independence) – Assuming newspapers still existed at the point of independence then, like the Republic of Ireland, the Fleet Street papers would have to have Welsh editorial teams to properly cover politics, general current affairs and sport – which could be a boost to national journalism. Despite this, it’s likely that English editions of newspapers would still be sold; you doubt the likes of The Telegraph, The Guardian and maybe even the Daily Express and Daily Mail would bother with Welsh editions.
Cross-border sporting competitions would likely be unaffected (IndyWales & The Football Exiles) – You would expect the Welsh football teams playing in the English pyramid to stay there until they voluntarily decided to change things (which is unlikely to happen for the foreseeable future). It’s the same for the Cardiff Devils, Celtic Dragons (netball) and the semi-pro Welsh rugby league sides. Maybe Wales-only competitions will develop gradually over time as development/B-leagues, though preferably as strong national competitions in their own right.
The most popular UK TV shows would still be available, though Welsh broadcasters would gradually develop a stronger Welsh identity (The Welsh Media XIIc – Radio, Television & Independence) – The switch from UK to Welsh public broadcasters would likely be a gradual process (probably undertaken during any transition period). As in the Republic of Ireland, it’s likely the most popular UK TV shows would still be broadcast (though possibly at different times). Commercial channels (ITV Wales, Channel 4) may be completely unchanged until Welsh licensing requirements force them to do so or they’re sold off (much in the same way Virgin Media owns the Irish Channel 3 licence). The main difference would be a greater or total Welsh focus in terms of current affairs, news, sport and some aspects of advertising. If you want another small example, then online, the .co.uk subdomain would become redundant, meaning more Welsh websites might switch to .wales and .cymru.
Many UK and Commonwealth traditions would still take place – The big one is Remembrance Sunday (which is a Commonwealth commemoration anyway) and you would expect the Royal British Legion to still exist – though instead of Whitehall, the focus in Wales would be at the Alexandra Gardens memorial. If Wales retained the monarchy then major royal events (weddings, coronations, jubilees and state funerals) would still be observed/”celebrated” and I think they still would be followed closely even if Wales became a republic.
The Welsh language wouldn’t necessarily resurge – Believing independence would lead to a resurgence of the Welsh language in and by itself is too optimistic. Irish is compulsory in the Republic of Ireland education system until the equivalent of A-Level and Irish language courses are routinely available at university and college level. However, outside of the education system, daily use is at lower levels than that of Welsh and some of the mandatory Irish language requirements for public-facing jobs have been rolled back.
Economic Impact
See also: “The Welsh Economy“
There probably would be an economic shock (but maybe not as bad as people would expect) – Welsh independence could spook the markets, though perhaps not as much as Brexit or Scottish independence due to the structure of the Welsh economy and, to be blunt, the stakes are lower. If there isn’t a clear pathway of transition to independence economically-speaking then the uncertainties may affect consumer confidence (i.e. people may put off making a big purchase like a house or car until they know what will happen). Nonetheless, you would still shop at the big supermarkets, the high street banks and building societies would still be there (perhaps eventually being required to open small Wales-based HQs is financial regulations diverge) etc.
Any issues can be mitigated given that Wales is a developed market economy, there are high levels of cross-border trade and movement of capital (which would be in the best interests of everyone to keep moving smoothly) and there’s a common legal system which wouldn’t need to be completely reconstructed after independence. It wouldn’t be like the collapse of the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia and would more likely resemble the Czechoslovakian “Velvet Divorce” or the creation of the Irish Free State.
The Welsh public deficit would initially be smaller than within the UK but would still exist and need to be dealt with (Wales’ Fiscal Future – Public Finances within the UK & Independence) – Current estimates for the national deficit are based on spending within the UK and are predominantly the result of lower tax revenues (nearly all taxes being set at the UK level) as a proportion of contributions to UK-wide spending (welfare, defence, debt etc.). The deficit on day one of independence would almost certainly be lower – though it’s hard to say precisely by how much – because of different spending priorities, savings as a result of apportionment of debt repayments, sovereign borrowing, tax powers and one-off issues like state and public pension liabilities. Short-term it wouldn’t be a problem. The issue is how to reduce it to a sustainable level (annual deficits of £2-3billion) – a subject worthy of an entire series of posts in its own right.
It’s likely Wales would still use the pound (at least temporarily) – Even if it’s only a stop-gap measure until a longer-term solution is found, Wales would probably continue to use the pound for several years after independence. If a formal currency union develops it could become a permanent fixture, though a Welsh currency ought to be the eventual aim to give us as much flexibility in monetary policy as is necessary.
We might end up adopting tax and economics policies we’ve never contemplated before – Full economic powers would bring a great deal of flexibility. It would be worth playing it safe immediately after independence. Once the administrative capacity and economic intelligence gathering are there, we would be able to try new things. That could include policies such as a carbon tax, local income tax and sales tax (to replace council tax), negative income tax, the reintroduction of working tax credits and policy options like PAYG road pricing (recently raised by the Plaid Cymru Independence Commission). From the opposite political direction, it could include a flat income tax, cuts to corporation tax and the elimination of smaller-yielding taxes (capital gains tax, inheritance tax, APD, stamp duty on shares).
The post-independence Welsh public sector would likely create as many jobs as would be potentially lost from UK operations in Wales – While it’s right to say major branch operations like the DVLA, Companies House, Land Registry, Patent Office, ONS etc. would likely relocate to England in the event of independence, their functions would still need to be carried out by an equivalent organisation for Wales.
Additionally, many of the state functions currently located in London (MoD, Foreign Office, large parts of HMRC, various regulatory bodies and inspectorates) would need a Welsh equivalent and could be staffed through redeployment/internal recruitment. This would need to be carefully planned for, though.
Political Impact
The Senedd will be the biggest game in town – Cardiff Bay would become the focal point of political discourse within Wales (aside from local government, which could be radically reformed), as Westminister largely becomes an irrelevance; you would probably only hear about English politics post-independence if it directly impacts Wales in some way. Independence would put Welsh politicians under both a very bright spotlight and more pressure than they’ve ever faced before. That may alter how political parties select people to run for office at a national level. Republicanism (if applicable), rejoining the EU or EFTA and immigration patterns (particularly the brain drain) would likely be the next big national questions after independence.
“It’s the UK Government/Westminister’s fault” would eventually die out – This is the political consequence of independence I’m looking forward to the most. The Senedd has had it far too easy since 1999. There would be no cover or wriggle room for Welsh ministers and political parties to blame everything under the sun on the UK Government and/or the UK/English. They would have to take 100% responsibility for their decisions and actions – though it would need a domestic media with the necessary reporting capacity and resources to hold them properly to account. You can donate to Senedd Home here. Just saying.
Plaid Cymru might cease to exist (see also: What might party politics look like in an independent Wales?) – I’ve touched on this previously, but independence could – if not straight away – result in a realignment of Welsh party politics as has happened in some newly post-independence states in Europe. Depending on electoral methods and the size of the Senedd itself, new parties may emerge from existing ones. That would probably be a process started by Plaid Cymru separating into its mainstream social democrat, cultural nationalist and green republican-socialist wings. We would likely end up with a choice between a broad centre-left coalition (Labour or its successor and smaller left-leaning parties) or a centre-right coalition (Conservatives or its successor and smaller cultural nationalist and populist parties).
The Welsh centre-right might (ironically) be the big winners of independence – Without the ideological and historical baggage of Unionism, the centre-right in Wales could end up becoming a major political force. If we assume the post-independence landscape is shaped through “loser’s consent”, then the centre-right (nominally the present Conservatives) would play a big part in that work, potentially resulting in the retention of the monarchy, a parliamentary system of government (rather than a move to an American-style republican government) and the pound.
Longer-term, Welsh conservatives wouldn’t have to adopt the Social Darwinist policies of the UK Conservative Party. A continental European-style Christian democratic party (similar to Germany’s CDU or Ireland’s Fine Gael), or a party with centrist policies similar to the US Democrats under Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, should be capable of winning national elections by striking a chord with the community-focused but small-c conservative Wales that so many of us keep denying we live in.
There would almost certainly be an organised “Re-establish the UK” movement (possibly even a political party) – Much in the same way as the “Remoaners” continued to campaign after the 2016 EU referendum, there’s no reason to assume that Unionism would fade away if they lost a future referendum on Welsh and Scottish independence. It may force a rethink of how they view the UK (meaning federalism and confederalism would likely be front and centre of a restoration-unionist platform), but every mistake, crisis and piece of bad news post-independence would be framed as an argument to bring the “broad-shouldered” UK back together.
Relations with the Republic of Ireland might become closer – England would almost certainly be Wales’ most important foreign relationship. That could equally be said of the Republic of Ireland and we would have a lot to learn from their experiences of independence from the UK. Relations with the Republic are already seen as a high priority by the Welsh Government, with Ireland recently re-opening a consulate in Wales. Depending on how post-Brexit trade patterns settle, close relations with Ireland would be important in bilateral terms and with one eye on the EU.