For far too long, most of my independence-related work on State of Wales has focused on the arguments in favour of independence and possible options around that.
In this new feature (“Devil’s Advocate”), I’ll be taking a different line and start looking at the arguments against independence even if I don’t support that position.
Nobody needs to panic about me going Benedict Arnold. This doesn’t affect any of the other work. So you’re probably asking, “Why?”
Fortunately, I don’t give a shit about popularity contests so I can do something like this with a clear conscience.
The case for independence can’t be made without understanding and addressing valid arguments against it. Those valid arguments exist and are too easily written off or not discussed in any real detail because they’re “off message”. Even I have reservations about independence and the national movement more generally – and that’s OK.
Put it like this: If you were about to get on a plane and notice that it’s seen better days and the wings are about to fall off, surely you wouldn’t get on board until it was fixed and passes a rigorous inspection? You wouldn’t take someone’s word for it.
If you do take someone’s word for it, then you could find yourselves in a situation where the majority of passengers drag everyone on board that plane based on blind faith and optimism alone, then the plane slams into the side of a mountain. I can’t possibly think of any recent event that resembles that.
Your remains could fit in a padded envelope. A blue clown car is phut-phut-phutting its way up the burning mountainside. It carries the Pennywise chucklefucks selected to lead the investigation into the crash and put the fires out. The result: “What crash?” * Honk-honk *
Despite the lengthy intro this time, I want “Devil’s Advocate” to be a bit more quickfire – simple questions, simple answers.
The detailed stuff can be left for the usual series of articles. This will at least let me cover bits and pieces I haven’t got around to yet.
To start, I look at one of the more popular arguments against independence: the everyday impact of creating an international border between Wales and England.
First off, the obvious one: it could be a pain in the arse because of new administrative requirements. Just another annoyance that didn’t exist before, much like some of the new rules and regulations concerning Brexit.
Depending on how “soft” or “hard” the Anglo-Welsh border would be, you may end up not having to do anything at all (soft/open border) right through to having to show a passport, pull over for a customs inspection or show some other form of paperwork like a work permit just to get to and from work in the morning and evening.
There would need to be mutual recognition of driving licences and car insurance and some measure of co-operation for things like cross-border rail travel. The issue would become even more complicated if, for example, Wales rejoined the EU after independence and England stayed out (or vice versa).
If Wales and England adopted different currencies and you still use cash, then you would have to change currencies (or keep an eye on exchange rates if you’re going cashless). That comes with various fees and commissions that you didn’t have to consider before.
In different currency scenarios, it may affect the pay and banking needs of cross-border commuters. You pay things like income tax based on where you live (and there is already a separate Welsh tax identifier based on residency). Being paid in one currency but spending in another may come with various transfer fees and alike. That could mean having to open separate bank accounts for separate currencies (which is what many cross-border workers in Northern Ireland do). It’s not a deal-breaker and may even have some advantages if exchange rates were favourable – but it’s still an annoyance.
Economically, an international border may change employment practices and employment patterns. English-based firms may be more reluctant to hire Welsh employees (and vice versa) if there were additional paperwork requirements. This may limit opportunities and lead to workers having different rights on both sides of the border in a way that (to a large extent) doesn’t happen now.
Differing immigration and nationality policies (such as dealing with asylum cases) between England and Wales could cause issues too. Some undocumented migrants who arrive in England could be moved on towards Wales. Vulnerable people would be left in limbo as governments fight over who can stay, who can’t and where.
Then there are the broader social and psychological impacts to consider as well. Some people may feel “cut off” from friends and family if they have to cross an international border to see them (even if the borders were “open” and largely in name only). The idea may be genuinely scary to those who are comfortable with the idea of the UK having hard borders with everywhere else but have never even thought of it ever happening here.
The Anglo-Welsh border is fairly irregular and usually based on farm ownership, old parish boundaries and rivers. There’s often no “buffer zone” where you can put in the sort of infrastructure needed for a “hard border” (if a hard border was deemed necessary). It even goes down the middle of the street in places like Saltney and Llanymynech.