(Title Image: Manfred Heyde under Creative Commons Licence BY-SA-3.0)
This is the final look at the constituency and regional races, focusing on the largest region which includes constituencies in Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Powys, Pembrokeshire and most of Gwynedd.
Here’s one last reminder of what the “verdict” means at the end of each summary:
- Safe – The named party will be expected to hold the seat comfortably. If they don’t it’ll be one of the shocks of the election.
- Likely – You can make an educated guess that the named party will keep/win the seat but not as comfortably as a safe seat.
- Lean – One party will perhaps have an advantage over the others, but the margin of victory will likely be under 10%.
- Toss-Up – These are the contests to look out for when the votes are counted on Friday 7th May and are likely to be close (under 5% margin of victory) or are seats likely to change hands.
Also, one last reminder of how the electoral system works:
Ones to Watch
Likely to be high up the list of Conservative targets, the Westminister seat did – for the briefest of times – go back to the Lib Dems during 2019 only to be promptly lost again by the end of the year.
In the Senedd, however, it’s a very different story with Kirsty Williams holding the seat convincingly since 1999. Her decision to stand down presents a challenge to William Powell – who was a regional list member from 2011-2016 – to retain her personal vote for himself.
He seemingly hasn’t featured in much in the Lib Dems national electoral material – Jane Dodds (the #1 candidate on the Mid & West Wales list) has, while they’ve kept Kirsty Williams in there despite her decision to stand down. Maybe they think the list seat is more/equally likely. That’s a bit of a gamble as keeping this seat is perhaps easier given the large number of smaller right-wing parties standing here angling for their share of the Tory and 2016 UKIP vote.
Verdict: Lean Liberal Democrat.
A close-run thing in pretty much every single Senedd election (understatement), though the only person to have ever won the seat with a convincing majority was Helen Mary Jones in 2007.
Both Lee Waters and Helen Mary Jones are gaffe-prone. Lee Waters has built up a national profile now and that could help him but it also means when he shoves his foot in his mouth more people see it. While being a relatively strong communicator in general, Helen Mary Jones actively courts bad publicity and has caused a split amongst some nationalists for her stance on (some would argue prejudice against) transgenders.
The perceived wisdom is that Labour does better in Llanelli itself, while Plaid Cymru hoover up votes in the surrounding rural area and smaller towns and villages.
This may also be the only place where Gwlad – in the form of the perennial thorn in Plaid Cymru’s side, Sian Caiach – influences the result. Even a few hundred votes could put Labour at an advantage and similar scenarios have seemingly cost Helen Mary Jones victory in 2011 and 2016 (assuming Sian Caiach voters would otherwise have voted for Plaid).
It’s another seat where there was a sizable UKIP vote in 2016, but even if all of that went to the Conservatives the best they could expect is third place.
I’d expect another close result in recount territory. It’s impossible to call.
Verdict: Toss-Up.
The Race Elsewhere
The Plaid vote here did take a bit of a hit during 2019, but given Adam Price’s high profile and good reputation, it’s unthinkable that he would do anything other than win comfortably.
Verdict: Safe Plaid Cymru.
In the past this has been a three-way marginal, but Angela Burns extended her majority in the last election to comfortable levels. With her decision to stand down, it presents the best opportunity yet for Labour or Plaid Cymru to make inroads. Plaid Cymru has been within spitting distance several times in the past, while Labour won the seat in 1999.
There are some challenges for all three of the top parties – the Tories lose a highly thought-of incumbent member for someone who sounds like they could prove to be an embarrassment; the Labour candidate lives in Swansea and its unclear what experience he has of rural issues; Plaid Cymru’s vote has fallen right back and it will be difficult to make up ground.
The Tories probably have the advantage by the fact they’re increased their grip on the Westminster seat and there are UKIP voters from 2016 who are likely to return in droves.
Verdict: Likely Conservative.
While there’s always a distant threat from the Liberal Democrats here, you would expect Elin Jones to win but not by a stupendous margin. It would be a shock if she didn’t, but the majority is small enough that an upset can’t be ruled out.
Verdict: Likely Plaid Cymru.
Despite Plaid’s falling out with Dafydd Elis-Thomas during the last term, it’s difficult to see anyone other than Mabon ap Gwynfor winning this one – perhaps by a smaller margin given the relatively large number of candidates.
Verdict: Safe Plaid Cymru.
The Lib Dems are probably the only serious challenger to Russell George here, but given the Tories have solidified their support in the Senedd and at Westminster then you wouldn’t expect any change.
Verdict: Likely Conservative.
There have been suggestions that Labour is quietly confident they can do something here – and they’ve won/held it in the past – but I just don’t see it. It’s the sort of seat Labour and Plaid Cymru should be targeting in the long run, but it’ll probably require the kind of swing they’re unlikely to get.
Verdict: Likely Conservative.
This is perhaps the only region where voting Labour on the list matters.
Labour will certainly keep both of their current list seats except in the unlikely event they win Preseli Pembrokeshire and/or Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire.
Some polls even suggest Labour could win three list seats here (particularly if they lose Llanelli). The Conservatives have done it before, though given the ludicrous mechanics of the voting system it would still be quite an achievement.
Plaid Cymru should keep their list seat too seeing as they’ve held it even after winning Llanelli in the past. The Conservatives tend to dominate the constituencies in the region, so it’s unlikely they’d be in with a chance of a list gain unless they lost one of their Pembrokeshire constituencies.
This may be the most promising opportunity for the Greens to win a list seat if the Lib Dems keep Brecon & Radnor and Plaid Cymru win Llanelli. Given the UKIP list seat win in 2016, you might expect Abolish the Assembly to challenge for the fourth seat as well.
