As if you didn’t already know, last week Labour and Plaid Cymru announced a co-operation agreement in up to 50 policy areas. The full agreement is available here (Cymraeg – pdf; English – pdf).
The agreement will last three years and guarantees the Welsh Government will be able to pass their budgets during that period.
It’s not a formal coalition and is similar to previous budget agreements. Plaid Cymru won’t have ministers and neither will they be expected to back Labour in every Senedd vote.
As Labour doesn’t have a majority in the Senedd, it’ll add a bit of stability and certainty to decision-making in those areas where both parties have agreed to co-operate.
If you’ve been on Twitter the last few days you could be forgiven for thinking this is the most important development in Welsh political history. It’s not, but it’s significant enough to take a closer look; and it needs a closer look because it’s perhaps not quite as transformational as the puff pieces suggest.
It’s a budget deal. It’s not that different to the many previous budget deals between parties in the Senedd, but it’s decent enough on its own merits.
The commentariat got overexcited as usual. There have been a lot of articles and hot takes – just like this one – on what was in the agreement as it’s written and the accompanying PR/press releases. There’s been little in the way of objectivity, only nauseatingly smug self-fart-huffing about “grown-up politics” that’s been undermined by the tug-of-war between the two parties on social media over who’s allowed to take credit for what.
There are plenty of good things in there even if they are in policy areas where there was already common ground between Labour and Plaid Cymru. The difference is some things that were “nice to haves” in the Fifth Senedd – like extended free school meals – are now firmly on the agenda.
What usually happens is the Welsh Government prioritises the parts of an agreement that will make the biggest impact in the short term then take full credit. They can stall anything that proves too difficult to deliver, or only deliver it on a piecemeal basis. The smart move by Plaid to try and prevent that from happening is negotiating in the appointment of special advisors to the government.
Plaid Cymru haven’t sold themselves short in the same way they have in previous budget agreements as a lot of these measures come with a big bill. Maybe they could’ve demanded more in terms of legislation – a definite timetable for a Clean Air Act, for example, or regulation of NHS managers. There’s also surprisingly little relating directly to the economy or pandemic recovery.
There are pet capital spending projects individual Plaid MSs could’ve shoehorned in too – namely new roads – but that wouldn’t have been a good look in the current climate-conscious environment (and I think Lee Waters would’ve resigned on principle if that had happened). Maybe it’s something that will happen later, but it doesn’t look like that’s the case.
Now the politics.
Adam Price had to show progress to his own party after Plaid failed to live up to the hype at the last Senedd election (though I would argue they met realistic expectations). On most measures you can say he’s demonstrated progress. Based on what I’ve seen so far this has gone down well amongst the rank and file.
You can’t blame him for rightly making the most of it. In many respects it’s a triumphant relaunch of his leadership, but “down payment on independence” it ain’t. There are also still some very harsh truths to take and lessons to learn from Plaid’s election campaign which I fear will now be quietly buried under ticker tape and Twitter image macros.
These agreements almost always come across as short-term moral victories for Plaid Cymru but longer-term strategic victories for Labour. You can argue Plaid Cymru is nobly putting the national interest first, but at heart it’s just pragmatism – it’s better to get some of your agenda on the table than none of it and risk becoming a third wheel.
The agreement helps Mark Drakeford by partially neutralising Plaid Cymru on some political sore points that could’ve caused Labour problems this term – free school meals/tackling poverty, second homes, post-Brexit measures relating to farming, the Welsh language and some aspects of the response to climate change. The agreement could suddenly end of course (like the 2016-17 compact), but Labour shouldn’t have to fight as many political battles on two fronts for the next few years.
The First Minister will have more time and space to target the Conservatives in the Senedd and the UK Government with a reinvigorated Adam Price at his side on some occasions – and that’ll suit both of them because “socialist solidarity” and all that. However, whenever Welsh politics is framed as Labour vs Conservatives – as it increasingly will be for the next few years – Plaid Cymru are usually the ones who are squeezed out.
Plaid got quite a lot out of the budget agreement this time around. That said, as with previous agreements Labour will be happy for Plaid to take credit where they want to because Plaid speaks to an echo chamber anyway; it’ll be the “Welsh Government” dishing out all of those free school meals in primary schools.
