Next, a look at the four very large councils covering central Wales and the west.
- Current Administration: Plaid Cymru-Independent coalition.
- Current Leader: Cllr. Emlyn Dole (Plaid).
- Number of Seats (2022): 75 (+1).
- Current Seat Distribution: Plaid Cymru (37), Independents & Non-Affiliated (18), Labour (17), Conservative (1), Vacant seat (1).
Previous Results:
- 1995 – No Overall Control.
- 1999 – No Overall Control.
- 2004 – No Overall Control.
- 2008 – No Overall Control.
- 2012 – No Overall Control.
- 2017 – No Overall Control.
Control over Carmarthenshire Council has historically been decided by the overall balance between three usually relatively equally sized groups – Plaid Cymru (which tends to do well in Carmarthen itself and the heartland), Labour (which tends to do well in Llanelli and the Amman Valley) and the Independents (who have historically done well in the former Dinefwr District and western towns like St Clears and Whitland).
What this has usually meant is that control of the council often comes down to whether Labour or Plaid Cymru form a coalition with the Independents. In 2017, Plaid Cymru almost broke this model by performing massively over expectations and coming very close to securing a majority.
Boundary reorganisations come into play once again. Some of the smaller wards have been merged with neighbouring ones and Carmarthen – where Plaid have traditionally done well – has lost a councillor. Bynea – where Labour usually does well – has gained a councillor and two wards have merged in Ammanford, which is shaping up to be a close contest between Labour and Plaid for the two seats on offer.
If Plaid does somehow manage to get a majority it would be a significant achievement. It’s more likely that they’ll remain the largest group, with Labour potentially making some gains.
Given Sian Caiach’s previous high profile, Carmarthenshire may also prove to be Gwlad’s best (perhaps only) chance of securing county-level representation.
