The previous pieces in this series on local government have focused on what we would traditionally consider “local government”: county councils, community councils and all their variations.
Local government doesn’t necessarily end there. It can go further and deeper through things like devolution and federalism; Wales is itself an example of a partially self-governing territory within another nation-state.
So the next few pieces are going to examine what devolution or federalism would look like within Wales if we decided to do that after independence.
To start, here’s a look at the arguments for and against.
Unitary Nation-State vs Federal Nation-State
The terms “unitary state” and “federal state” are used to describe the basic power structure within a nation.
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Nearly all of the nations of the world are either unitary nation-states states or federal nation-states.
Unitary nation-states are more common – though they may grant different levels of autonomy to different regions through processes such as devolution (A Federal Wales Part II).
As noted in the graphic above, federal nation-states split powers between the national level of government and the regional/state level in their constitutions.
There are fewer federal nation-states globally. While it’s a power structure usually exclusive to physically large nations, it’s also a popular power structure in smaller multi-national and multi-ethnic nation-states with strong regional identities (Belgium and Switzerland, for example).
I guess the majority of people reading this who support independence (or even those who don’t but could at least imagine it) would assume an independent Wales would be a unitary state. That would be the default position, with at most some form of regional government (Part VI).
My view is that independence shouldn’t just be about the Senedd taking on all of the additional powers currently exercised by the UK and that being the end of it. There’s more than enough scope to move powers out of Cardiff Bay too.
Homogeny & Population Distribution
While a federal system would allow regional differences – not tied to nationality or any other defining characteristics – to find expression politically, are Welsh regions different to each other to that degree?
The biggest differences are perhaps levels of Welsh-speaking ability, some aspects of demographics (like the percentage of over-60s) and population density.
Other than those, one part of Wales isn’t that dramatically different from another to the extent of justifying separate laws and policies beyond those which would be provided through stronger local government.
There’s also the related issue of population distribution. The vast majority of people in Wales live either within 30-40 miles of Cardiff or in a strip a few miles wide running along the northern coast from Wrexham to Llandudno.
A federal arrangement where you would have to account for very low population densities in places like Ceredigion and Powys may lead to it becoming lop-sided.
There’s no issue with this in principle as many federal and devolved states allow the separate units to have different population and population densities. What we wouldn’t want to do is create a situation where one region is more powerful and influential than the rest (much like England within the UK). So they would somehow have to be similar sizes and that could prove difficult to achieve without creating artificially large regions (one covering the entirety of central and western Wales, for example).
If an independent Wales adopted a federal power structure then only three others around the world would be smaller in terms of population and land area: the island states of Micronesia, St. Kitts & Nevis and Comoros.
Duplication & Bureaucracy
This is the most compelling argument against federalism within Wales (and often used as an argument against devolution within the UK). You wouldn’t have to deal with a single government in Cardiff making laws and regulations, but the federal states/regions too.
This would need to be carefully balanced with the argument – made earlier – about regional/state legislatures being quicker to respond to local needs that require changes to laws and regulations. What that also means is that you’re going to have multiple legislatures making laws in different areas at the same time.
Each would need a government/executive, a group of elected legislators (likely to be full-time), a meeting place or headquarters/parliament building, a parliamentary support service, government departments and various civil service officials.
In one way this could be spun as a positive, as it would guarantee that many jobs currently undertaken by Welsh and UK civil servants (mainly headquartered in Cardiff) can be spread around the county. This means some better-paid jobs would be created closer to regions that might not otherwise attract them.
It also means more duplication. Under a federal or devolved system, Wales could end up with completely separate health systems in each state/region – not just health boards. You would be creating harder borders between different parts of Wales that don’t currently exist or only do so in red tape terms (i.e. moving jobs between health boards).
Sometimes “one size fits all” is the most efficient way to do things.
Policy Drift
Neatly following on is the problem (though once again it could be interpreted as a positive) of separate regions/states doing things radically different to each other in unintended ways.
If the regional legislatures had control over the school curriculum, for example, then you would end up with as many school curriculums in Wales as there are states/regions.
While there’s a social capital argument in favour of federalism – touched on earlier – it could also empower fringe groups concentrated in particular areas to lobby regional/state legislatures to make ever more extreme changes to suit their ends, with legislators arguably far easier to influence.
Returning to the curriculum example, a regional legislature could decide to only do the bare minimum to support Welsh-medium education because it’s a largely Anglophone area.
There could be more serious problems. One state may take a more conservative line on sexuality & relationship education because of a campaign led by a populist member of the state legislature….then a few years later you see a spike in teenage pregnancies and homophobic bullying.
In a nation-state with a single law-making legislature, this may be easier to control because you’ll only have one set of lawmakers, ministers and civil servants and there may not be time or the will to do anything too extreme.
That kind of natural control could become more difficult with multiple legislatures.
Internal Competition & “The Race to the Bottom”
Federal states/regions won’t just be neighbours anymore. To an extent, they’ll be competitors too.
Competition isn’t always a bad thing and policy experiments that work in one region/state can be exported to others as a means of “learning best practice”. But you can “learn bad practice” too and bad policy and law-making is far more difficult to undo when you’re dealing with separate legislatures.
It becomes a further problem when all the regions try to outdo each other in – for example – cutting taxes or offering ever more generous subsidies etc. to boost their economies at the expense of everywhere else.
It could lead to more risk-taking by regional governments and legislatures – such as borrowing too much (if such powers were available), pork barrel projects or building white elephants.
It could lead to more “quick win” populist policies being proposed and introduced without appropriate background work just “to be the first” out of all of the states/regions.
It could also result in the state/regional legislatures passing more “framework laws” (outlining general principles but leaving most of the implementation to regulations and government bodies). The Senedd has often been criticised for doing that.
Conflict of Authority
This is something we’re already familiar with in Wales given the number of disputes between the Senedd and UK Government over the years – some going in Wales’ favour, but many not doing so.
Federalism and devolution would inevitably lead to – on occasion – friction between the central/national and the regional legislatures, between the regional legislatures and local government (councils), or between all of them at the same time.
You can also picture – for want of an example – radically different rules on something like second homes. In one state/region, they could effectively be banned or severely curtailed; in another state/region a few miles down the road, there may be no restrictions.
This kind of thing would inevitably end up in the courts, putting pressure on the Welsh constitution or leading to the Senedd stepping in and over-ruling the state legislatures anyway.
There would need to be some form of remedy system – whether in a written constitution or via UK-style “conventions”. There would also be a need for partnership working and informal working between the various tiers of government – a continuation of the WLGA, for example (Part VIII).
Political Apathy
Are we that interested in politics and the constitution in Wales to want another tier of politicians that can make laws? I’m expecting some backlash for even bringing up the idea of federalism/devolution post-independence.
If turnout in Senedd elections is already low, can you imagine what it would be like for elections to a state/regional legislature? I’m sure party staffers and stalwarts would be delighted because it’s another election they can stand in and set of expenses they can claim, though it would no doubt come at an additional cost and chore to the parties as well.
Independence could make a difference to political apathy if the Senedd was the only game in town of course, but it’s not a guarantee. You need to get the financial arrangements (Part VII), voting systems, the number of elected members and constitutional arrangements (Part IX) right beforehand so people are willing to buy into it.
A lack of interest in the idea of a federal Wales after independence (even before considering the independence question itself) would be one of its biggest stumbling blocks. A stronger version of local government than we currently have will be more than enough for most people.
