At the start of 2022, I posted “My Nationalist No-No Confessions“, which proved to be one of the more popular posts of the year.
The point was to prove that personal views don’t invalidate the views of other people or necessarily undermine support for a cause.
I did this by putting forward some views and opinions that I hold that may go against the grain of mainstream nationalist thought. The first time around that included my indifference towards a republic, a belief that the Welsh are too easy to wind up and that radical ideas aren’t always good ideas.
So I thought, “Why not come back to it and ostracise myself further?”
The thing that keeps me up at night about independence isn’t the indy movement flatlining and never being spoken about again, losing an independence referendum by a narrow margin, or winning a referendum by a big margin but being unable to deliver anything.
It’s becoming independent out of the blue with little warning, without any sort of plan in place and decades before we’re ready.
Picture this: rampant inflation; an energy and pollution crisis; a self-serving political system that doesn’t work; forced privatisation of healthcare after decades of planned neglect – and softheaded romanticism for the 1950s leading to resistance to reform; mass inequality; not receiving a state pension until you’re 80 and unemployment at 25%. Then a humiliated government has to go cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout on unfavourable terms because we have a diminished international standing.
That’s enough about the UK’s future, what about Wales?
I’ll say it if nobody else is willing to: we’re nowhere near ready for the practicalities of independence. We’re there in heart. There’s no question that in terms of spirit, we’re already independent.
It’s all the “boring stuff” that doesn’t tug at heartstrings, doesn’t appeal to blind patriotism, isn’t a quick soundbite to get clicks or a 2 minute viral Youtube clip that will determine whether or not Wales becomes independent and avoid a scenario like that outlined above.
The idea that we’re prepared for an independence referendum, let alone prepared for some of the choices that would need to be made, is a complete fantasy. I still expect independence to happen in my lifetime but I’ll probably be very old when it does happen. Independence has often been portrayed as a lifeboat of some kind, offering us a chance to escape the HMS United Kingdom rapidly disappearing beneath the Atlantic. The lifeboat is only there if we know what we’re doing; if we don’t know what we’re doing, it’s no better than jumping off the side.
Any roadmap for Welsh independence needs to be specific to our circumstances, not just a copy-and-paste of what’s happening in Scotland because that’s not going to work.
Wales is far more small-c conservative than our political thinkers like to believe it is. While being let down so many times by the UK Government and Welsh Government alike probably means we have far better bullshit detectors than we’re given credit for.
So any case for Welsh independence has to speak plainly, be honest and grounded in reality with a clear timetable and costings. We’re not getting that at the moment – including here at State of Wales but I can only do so much and I don’t intend to do it forever.
I started the Devil’s Advocate series because there’s far too little self-critique and refinement of pro-independence arguments. We’re in danger of walking into a similarly-sized hole the Leave campaign dug for itself with Brexit – and look at how that’s turned out. If you fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
If it was a choice between remaining in a dysfunctional failing state like the UK (where we at least know why, when and how the shit will hit the fan) or becoming independent – based on a plan of forming committees to form committees while singing folk songs – then I’ll pick the shit hitting the commemorative Union flag fan every time.
