Now that the world’s most expensive game of musical chairs is out of the way, it’s worth picking up on a report that did the rounds before Chuckles’ coronation.
YouGov polling on attitudes towards the monarchy was reported as showing that Wales is – to quote The i – a “republican heartland”.
However much I’d like to believe that, it didn’t quite ring true. So I decided to look at it myself, my chin growing ever itchier.
Much like those who support Welsh independence, republicans are a sizable minority whose views have gone mainstream – but a minority they remain and Wales most certainly isn’t a republican heartland. I don’t see how it could be interpreted as such for the time being.
There’s the outside chance that a big scandal could bring the whole thing down, or the UK might elect a republican government at some point. The more likely scenario is a gradual deflation of support and what might clinch it in the end is apathy.
No matter how hard the mainstream British media might try, they can’t make you care about the institution.
The House of Windsor has a strong survival instinct that republicans may be under-estimating, but not caring is the monarchy’s kryptonite. To paraphrase the late Queen, the monarchy “has to be seen to be believed”. They have to come to you. The moment they’re not seen, not available or nobody cares about them anymore is the moment they’re in trouble.
That said, there’s a bit of a “one last push” trope amongst sections of the Welsh political scene where they point to one poll and think momentum is with them, but they ignore the longer-term trend, which may not have changed very much in a long time. Case in point.
