Today I look at “The Brain Drain” – the net loss of skilled people to out-migration; particularly the under-40s – and the impact this has on the Welsh economy and society.
It’s something the powers that be in Wales accept is a problem, yet have done little to date to address.
Stressing that this is under the banner of “Devil’s Advocate”, this piece will argue that a “Brain Drain” from Wales is unavoidable and – if for purely self-interest by those who move away – would be wrong to interfere with.
There’s one of those sayings: “To get on, you need to get out”.
The implication is that anyone with serious ambitions or talent shouldn’t stay in Wales if they have any hope of living up to their potential – whether that’s talent potential or earning potential.
There’s an element of truth to it.
A recent report by the Wales Governance Centre1 concluded that the growth of middle-to-higher earning roles in Wales has remained stagnant since 2000-01. Also, the roles with the highest median pay are those associated with natural resources and utilities.
The report also includes figures – taken as a snapshot in July 2023 – that suggest job vacancies in Wales are dominated by healthcare, administration and retail; the latter having some of the lowest median pay rates and a high proportion of part-time work.
There were comparatively few vacancies in mid-to-higher range service sector roles such as banking, finance, insurance and management. The only exceptions were legal/HR, social services as well as IT.
Looking at the accompanying figures for what people are studying at university, some things stand out.
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Those studying medicine – or a subject allied to medicine, like nursing – probably have a good chance of finding work in Wales.
All those studying business, creative subjects (like architecture) and liberal arts – the kind of things that form the backbone of the white collar service sector in advanced economies – might struggle.
Taken together it suggests that Wales has a significant problem with graduate underemployment. That means people taking roles that are below their level of education or skills.
ONS figures published in 20232 revealed that 36.3% of all graduates employed in Wales during 2022 were working in non-graduate roles. While this is above the UK average (32.9%) it’s similar to most nations and regions outside London and was lower than Scotland (38.9%).
However, the more worrying thing is that the proportion of recent graduates working in non-graduate roles in Wales (48%) was higher than all nations and regions except the East Midlands (48.8%). It was also a whopping 22 percentage points higher than London.
1. Wales Fiscal Analysis, Wales Governance Centre (13th November 2023). “Labour Market Update for Wales, 2023). Available at: https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/2779882/20230920_Labour-Market_27oct.pdf
2. Office of National Statistics (August 2023). “Employed graduates in non-graduate roles in parts of the UK, 2021 to 2022”. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/adhocs/1443onslocalemployedgraduatesinnongraduaterolesinpartsoftheuk2021to2022
