Now, onto the meat of drug policy – what an independent Wales could do differently.
Let’s assume that recreational drugs which are currently illegal remain illegal after independence. What strategies would be available to an independent Wales in order to to “win” the domestic front in the War on Drugs?
Firstly, it’s worth deciding what “winning” the War on Drugs looks like.
How do you win a war against a behaviour or a concept?
We should first judge how successful the current approach – prohibition and an emphasis on criminalising the drug trade – has been so far.
Are there fewer people accessing and using illegal drugs?
The use of certain drugs has declined, but the market itself is resilient. The number of people actively seeking out recreational drugs is a small section of the population too. With earlier intervention and counselling, there’s a good chance some people might be directed away from drug use.
Verdict: Hard to call it a success, but it’s not been a complete failure either. Stalemate.
Has the threat of criminal penalties deterred people from getting involved in drug-related crime?
As mentioned in Part II, there are still strong perceptions that drug-related crime and drug use are serious problems in some Welsh communities. Also, lots of criminal cases are dropped due to a lack of evidence or prosecution problems.
Verdict: Unsuccessful.
Are fewer people dying from drug-related incidents or developing addictions?
A mixed bag. The number of hospital admissions relating to drug abuse seems to have dropped recently,, but the number of drug-related deaths in Wales has been gradually increasing year-on-year since the 1990s. The latter may well be down to long-term health problems caused by addiction – which accelerated from the 1980s.
Verdict: Another one where it’s hard to call it a success.
Has the global trade in narcotics been disrupted?
Every police force and agency can point to a successful seizure here and there, putting “drugs on the table” in front of the cameras (as in the title picture). These may cause speed bumps for criminal gangs in certain areas, but I don’t think there’s any way you can argue that all of this law enforcement work has seriously disrupted the global trade.
Verdict: Some local successes, but globally unsuccessful.
Have organised criminal gangs in charge of the global drugs trade been brought to justice and weakened?
A few heavy hitters have been taken out or taken down, but due to the money involved all that means is someone else pops up to take their place. You can make the case that in some parts of the world – like northern Mexico – state agencies are losing the shooting war despite killing and imprisoning scores of cartel members.
Even in a country that retains the death penalty for drug trafficking – Singapore – over 3,000 people were arrested for drug-related crimes in 2023.
Verdict: Unsuccessful.
So it’s going well so far, isn’t it?
