The previous two parts in this mini-series looked at sport more generally – including how to boost participation amongst as many people as possible. This final part looks at the sporting elite and how an independent Wales can approach developing the next generation of Welsh sporting talent.
How many athletes would Wales send to a (Summer) Olympics & Paralympics?
Ultimately, it depends on talent and finances.
The Commonwealth Games squads aren’t a good benchmark to make an estimate from as Wales sends 150-200+ athletes. Also, the Commonwealth Games includes sports that Wales has traditionally performed strongly in – such as bowls – which aren’t included at the Summer Olympics or Paralympics.
One way to estimate how big a Welsh squad would be is to see how many athletes countries with populations similar to that of Wales (roughly 2.5-3.5million people1) have sent to the most recent Summer Olympics and Paralympics (2004-2024 period).
The mean average size of an Olympics team from these countries was 24 athletes and Paralympics was 6 athletes.
The range of average Olympic squad sizes was more varied (between 5 and 59 athletes). Paralympic squads tend to be smaller but there was the same big variation (1 to 15 athletes). This will probably be down to country-specific factors such as the availability of finance and quality of coaching/training.
According to Sport Wales, 33 Welsh-qualified athletes took part in the 2024 Olympics2 as part of Team GB and BBC Wales reports3 that 22 Welsh-qualified athletes took part in the 2024 Paralympics.
So if (independent) Welsh squads were at the higher end of the average for a country of our size they would likely take 50-60 athletes to a Summer Olympics and 30-40 to a Paralympics.
What about Winter Olympics & Paralympics?
Despite lacking a proper winter, it doesn’t mean Welsh people don’t take part in winter sports – and Welsh athletes have won medals at Winter Games in the past.
Squad sizes would be much smaller than those of summer games and the bar for selection and support is likely to be (proportionally) higher too as there will be a smaller pool to choose from.
You would assume anyone aspiring to represent Wales at a Winter Games would at least have a competitive track record in their chosen discipline.
What strategy should Wales have for the Olympics and Paralympics?
Ultimately, it’s up to (what will be) the Welsh equivalent of an Olympic Committee or Paralympic Committee. Some of the questions and priorities they would need to consider include:
- Should public funding be targeted towards Olympic and Paralympic sports rather than popular mass-participation team sports like rugby and football?
- Should there be tiered and targeted support for potential Olympians and Paralympians – with greater support given to those deemed to have a good chance of winning a medal?
- Alternatively, should support be open-ended to ensure Wales can send large squads?
- How many Olympic rounds should specific sports and athletes be supported, without measurable success, until funding is wound down or withdrawn completely?
- Should we offer cash incentives or other prizes to medal winners (i.e. £50,000 for a gold)? Or should we follow Team GB’s example and offer an annual stipend to enable athletes to train?
How many Olympic and Paralympic medals can Wales realistically expect to win?
How long is a piece of string?
People may like to point to how many medals “Wales” won at the Olympics, Paralympics etc. as part of Team GB.
It’s a stretch to say Welsh athletes would have won medals “for Wales” if they won them as part of a team, duo or relay alongside athletes from the rest of the UK; solo disciplines are fine.
On the solo front, a “Welsh Olympic squad” would have won 4 medals at Paris 2024 (2 silver, 2 bronze). A Welsh cycling team would have likely been competitive and potentially added another medal or two to the total.
Along similar lines, a “Welsh Paralympics squad” would have won 12 medals in Paris (5 gold, 4 silver, 3 bronze) and would have been pushing towards the top 25 on the medal table – and that’s discounting medals won as part of a team event.
That doesn’t sound like much, but pound-for-pound – even when discounting team medals – Welsh athletes perform very well for a country of our size.
1. Full list: Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Botswana, Gambia, Georgia, Jamaica, Lithuania, Moldova, Mongolia, Namibia, Qatar, Uruguay
2. Sport Wales, “Welsh Olympic Athletes at Parid 2024”. Available at: https://www.sport.wales/performance-sport/welsh-olympic-athletes/
3. BBC Wales (8th September 2024). “Welsh para-athletes enjoy best medal haul in 20 years”. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/cq5dnez4n54o
