Following neatly on from last week’s look at alcohol policy and independence, it’s time to look at one old vice (smoking) alongside a much newer one (vaping).
The Welsh Government has a vision of Wales being “smoke-free” by 2030. By their definition, that means 5% or fewer of the adult population smoking by that point.
Based on the current rate of smoking decline, that’s unlikely to be achieved before the 2050s.
As noted, the Tobacco and Vaping Bill will ban sales of tobacco products to those born after January 2009 from 2027. In that respect, a partial ban on tobacco is coming to Wales.
However, legal sales of tobacco would feasibly continue (for those born before January 2009) for a long time. If the last “legal smoker” started smoking on their 18th birthday on 31st December 2026, then they would be aged 92 at the start of the 22nd century (assuming they live that long having taken up smoking).
The question is, then, could/should tobacco be completely banned before that?
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As far as I know, there are few/no plans anywhere in the world for a total and immediate ban on tobacco, only the phasing out of legal sales based on age (as proposed in the UK).
Once the proportion of smokers reaches the point where smoking is effectively non-existent in public life (currently sometime in the 2050s in Wales’ case), then a total ban might be a realistic option.
We should, nonetheless, heed lessons from our approach to illegal recreational drugs – which was looked at over the summer. Even if it’s well-meaning, prohibition often doesn’t work as intended. The entire tobacco trade would be pushed underground.
I’ve seen the kind of damage smoking does to members of my family, so my heart says “ban it”, but my head says, “a ban wouldn’t work”.
Either way, a debate on whether to completely outlaw tobacco and smoking will happen sometime in the not-too-distant future.
