(Title Image: visitnorthwales.co.uk)
The penultimate look at the constituency and regional races reaches arguably the most keenly-contested part of Wales – the north – which includes all five of the mainland northern local authorities (except for most of Gwynedd) and Anglesey.
Here’s a reminder of what the “verdict” means at the end of each summary:
- Safe – The named party will be expected to hold the seat comfortably. If they don’t it’ll be one of the shocks of the election.
- Likely – You can make an educated guess that the named party will keep/win the seat but not as comfortably as a safe seat.
- Lean – One party will perhaps have an advantage over the others, but the margin of victory will likely be under 10%.
- Toss-Up – These are the contests to look out for when the votes are counted on Friday 7th May and are likely to be close (under 5% margin of victory) or are seats likely to change hands.
Ones to Watch
Perhaps the only genuine three-way marginal seat in the election. Plaid Cymru will have placed it towards the top of their target list. However, Janet Finch-Saunders is proving stubborn to shift, while the demographics in the area are increasingly moving against Plaid. The small number of candidates and lack of UKIP and Abolish the Assembly options is probably a good thing for the Conservatives.
Labour has always performed relatively well here, but haven’t finished higher than third since they won the old Conwy constituency in 2003. You would expect something similar.
This is probably Plaid Cymru’s best chance of a constituency gain in the region – and they don’t have the likes of Propel or Gwlad standing in the constituency – so it could be a nail-biter.
Verdict: Toss-Up.
Most polls predict this seat is going to change hands, though the same thing was said in 2016 and Ann Jones managed to hang on by the slimmest of margins. If the Conservatives don’t win the Senedd seat now, I don’t see when they’ll ever win it; it’s their best opportunity in years.
The short candidate list may help Labour if they turn it into an “us or the Tories” style contest as the margins are likely to be very fine yet again. The Tories only won the Westminster seat by a whisker in 2019 and regardless of who wins I suspect it’ll be in recount territory once more.
Verdict: Toss-Up.
Wrexham was one of the most keenly-contested seats at the 2019 Westminister election and is probably the jewel in the crown of the Conservatives Welsh “red wall”. Since then, however, it seems to have gone downhill with regular protests taking place outside Sarah Atherton’s constituency office on a large number of issues.
Now, that may be a noisy minority and the “Shy Tory” phenomenon is a thing. Additionally, Lesley Griffiths has a very patchy record as a minister. Plaid Cymru – while making some serious missteps of their own here -will be looking to build on recent local by-election successes and gain a foothold in a major urban area by pushing for third place ahead of next year’s local elections.
There is a sense from recent polls that this may have drifted away from the Conservatives, which would be a big disappointment to them but a relief to Labour.
Verdict: Lean Labour.
The Race Elsewhere
Probably the safest of the Labour seats in the north east, but I doubt Jack Sargeant’s expected victory will be as emphatic as the 2018 by-election.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
Plaid candidates have always won this seat fairly comfortably in Senedd elections. It would be a surprise if Sian Gwenllian’s majority was anything under 15%.
Verdict: Safe Plaid Cymru.
For some reason, this is one of those seats where the opposition feels they have a chance. Do people in places like Llangollen and Chirk tell every canvasser, regardless of party, that they’re voting for them or something?
Plaid Cymru clearly thinks they can do something here by putting forward a senior member in Llyr Gruffydd, while the Conservatives will be buoyed after taking the Westminster seat in 2019. One of the founding members of Abolish the Assembly is standing here too as well as sitting regional list member, Mandy Jones, for Reform UK.
Maybe there’s some internal polling somewhere that suggests it’s up for grabs, but common sense suggests it isn’t. Will “Hard Hat Ken’s” famous grin turn into a frown? Probably not, but I doubt it’ll be comfortable.
Verdict: Lean Labour.
This one is being talked up by other parties, but I honestly don’t see why it would change hands. It would take something big to get close to Darren Millar; if anything I’d expect his share of the vote to increase.
Verdict: Safe Conservative.
Despite coming close to losing the seat in 2007, Labour has always had enough in the tank to get this over the line in Senedd elections. Even though the Conservatives won the seat in the 2019 UK election, it was a close-run thing.
I’d expect a fairly sizable swing towards the Conservatives – and it’s the sort of seat the Tories need to win to have a very good night – but I doubt it’ll be enough.
Verdict: Lean Labour.
Rhun ap Iorwerth seems a fairly popular MS and the constituency has a long history of backing incumbents until they stand down. While the Conservatives are making up ground here and took the Westminster seat in 2019, I don’t see any other winner; maybe a reduced majority but still comfortable.
Verdict: Safe Plaid Cymru.
The only thing you can perhaps say with certainty is that Plaid Cymru will likely keep their current seat and will be odds-on to pick up a second if they don’t win Aberconwy or lose any of their other seats.
As for the other three parties, it’s all up for grabs.
If Labour does lose multiple constituencies, then you would expect them to pick up at least one list seat. Likewise, if the Conservatives fail to win any constituencies and lost Aberconwy, then they might keep their existing list seat and pick up a second one.
Like South Wales East, this is somewhere where you would expect Abolish the Assembly to do well, feeding off the “the WAG doesn’t do anything up here” vote. The fact their Vale of Glamorgan based leader, Richard Suchorzewski, picked this region to stand suggests they think they can win a seat. Polls suggest they might.
The Lib Dems have won list seats here in the past, though it may be a stretch for them, the Greens, the likes of Reform UK and UKIP. It’ll probably come down to hundreds of votes in the end.
