(Title Image: South Wales Argus)
Part three of the examination of the constituency and regional list races focuses on constituencies in the former county of Gwent (Newport, Torfaen, Monmouthshire etc.) as well as the remainder of Caerphilly and Merthyr Tydfil.
Here’s a reminder of what the “verdict” means at the end of each summary:
- Safe – The named party will be expected to hold the seat comfortably. If they don’t it’ll be one of the shocks of the election.
- Likely – You can make an educated guess that the named party will keep/win the seat but not as comfortably as a safe seat.
- Lean – One party will perhaps have an advantage over the others, but the margin of victory will likely be under 10%.
- Toss-Up – These are the contests to look out for when the votes are counted on Friday 7th May and are likely to be close (under 5% margin of victory) or are seats likely to change hands.
Here’s a further reminder of how the electoral system works:
Ones to Watch
A seat high up the Plaid Cymru target list. While there’s been an attempt to try and get a proper campaign off the ground, the pandemic restrictions mean there may not have been enough time for Delyth Jewell to build up up the necessary local profile needed to challenge Hefin David properly in the same way Leanne Wood did with Leighton Andrews in 2016. That said, she only needs a swing of around 3% from Labour – which is achievable.
It’s assumed to be a straight Labour-Plaid Cymru fight, but there’s another factor everyone’s ignoring too: the large UKIP vote in 2016. If the bulk of that goes to the Conservatives (it certainly won’t go to Plaid Cymru) and there’s a moderate swing away from Labour to the Tories then this could turn into an unexpected three-horse race.
I’d say Hefin David has an advantage by being the incumbent and more well known now, but I’d expect the result to be even more of a bum-squeaker than last time.
Verdict: Toss-Up.
This one is being included as a one to watch based mainly on the 2016 result. I don’t think anyone – particularly Plaid Cymru – should get too excited about a victory this year.
Blaenau Gwent has developed a reputation for protest votes, particularly during the 00s. I suspect the big Plaid Cymru vote in 2016 was more to do with the candidate than the party (much like Cardiff West and Neil McEvoy). Despite recent polls, Caerphilly is perhaps a better bet for a Plaid constituency gain than Blaenau Gwent.
Given the sizable UKIP vote in 2016, this may be one of the constituencies where Abolish the Assembly does well (at the very least a retained deposit). The constituency also has a history of voting in large numbers for Independents too – finishing in second place in 2011 – so a decent performance there can’t be ruled out either.
I doubt Alun Davies will be unseated, even if he should perhaps have been put out to pasture, but it might not be as comfortable as he’d like.
Verdict: Lean Labour.
While Nick Ramsay’s decision to stand as an Independent means he wins either way (due to a large pay off for losing a seat), if he has a personal vote of any kind amongst Tories then it could cause Peter Fox problems. Similarly, a poor performance on Nick Ramsay’s part may be personally embarrassing and kind of prove the local Conservative branch’s point in their quarrel with him.
This is one of the parts of Wales where you would expect Abolish the Assembly to perform strongly. Traditionally, the English Democrats have stood here on a ticket of annexing Monmouthshire into England. This year Mark Reckless is doing that on their behalf and might do well given his relatively high profile. I’d expect a retained deposit at the very least.
A major splitting of the vote between the Tories, Nick Ramsay, Abolish and the other right-wing parties could – stress could – allow Labour to come up through the middle; but I suspect the chances of that happening are slim and it would take a brave person to bet against the Conservatives winning here.
Verdict: Likely Conservative.
The Race Elsewhere
The first Senedd member for Islwyn was from Plaid Cymru, but since then they’ve slowly faded away (as is the case in other parts of the Valleys). While Rhianon Passmore is a bit better than her illustrious predecessors, she’s hardly set the world alight herself but shouldn’t expect any problems. Maybe the only interesting thing here would be Neil Hamilton’s performance.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
There’s enough of a gap to ensure Labour retains the seat. It would take something big to change that.
Verdict: Safe Labour.
Except for 2007, John Griffiths had won comfortably at every election and it would be a surprise if he didn’t do the same again this year – albeit with a reduced majority when UKIP votes go back to the Conservatives/Abolish etc.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
This one might be going under the radar a little bit. The cancellation of the Newport bypass perhaps will play a bigger role in this particular contest than in Newport East; most of the problems with the local road network seem to be in the western half of the city.
Jayne Bryant has spoken out in favour of the bypass in the past, but with the Conservatives and other parties pledging in their manifestos to re-launch the project, it may place them at an advantage.
The Conservatives were within touching distance of winning the Westminster seat in 2019, but they need an ~8% swing from Labour to win the Senedd seat and that might just be beyond them. The Greens will be looking to do well here too with their EnglandandWales deputy leader, Amelia Womack.
Verdict: Lean Labour.
If the 2016 UKIP breaks to the Conservatives in significant numbers then that might cause Lynne Neagle some problems, but I’d still expect her to be comfortably re-elected.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
From the outset, there’ll probably be at least one Conservative and one Plaid Cymru member elected on the list (that may change if Plaid wins Caerphilly and Blaenau Gwent – though that’s unlikely).
The Conservatives will probably be favourites to win a second seat, which would result in Natasha Asghar becoming the first woman of colour elected to the Senedd.
The final seat could end up being a straight fight between Plaid Cymru and Abolish the Assembly, with the Greens, Lib Dems, UKIP and possibly even Reform UK working their way into that fight too as it could come down to hundreds of votes or less.
If Abolish the Assembly is going to have any success in the south it’ll happen here. While a recent poll suggests the south east is warmer to devolution than people might think, it’s where UKIP consistently polled well in 2016, the Brexit Party/Reform UK did well in 2019 and where you would expect a bit more hostility towards the Senedd due to the region being fairly Anglicised outside the valleys (and on top of hot button issues like the Newport bypass).
