(Title Image: Walters Group)
Next in my look at the seat-by-seat guides, it’s the South Wales Central region, which includes constituencies in Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan and Rhondda Cynon Taf.
Here’s a reminder of what the “verdict” means at the end of each summary:
- Safe – The named party will be expected to hold the seat comfortably. If they don’t it’ll be one of the shocks of the election.
- Likely – You can make an educated guess that the named party will keep/win the seat but not as comfortably as a safe seat.
- Lean – One party will perhaps have an advantage over the others, but the margin of victory will likely be under 10%.
- Toss-Up – These are the contests to look out for when the votes are counted on Friday 7th May and are likely to be close (under 5% margin of victory) or are seats likely to change hands.
Ones to Watch
The only Labour-Lib Dem marginal in the election, it’ll probably be the Lib Dems best chance of winning a seat outside of Brecon & Radnor. They’ve selected a relatively high-profile candidate in former leader of Cardiff Council, Rodney Berman, who will no doubt come across as far more dynamic than Jenny Rathbone.
While Jenny has been caught up in two high-profile “incidents” this term – one her fault (suspension for antisemitism), the other not her fault (“f**kgate”)- I doubt that would have much bearing on the election itself.
Cardiff Central remains fiercely competitive and for the last two elections, Jenny Rathbone has won by 38 and 817 votes respectively. I’d say she still has the slimmest of advantages here as an incumbent but I’d expect another close result.
Verdict: Toss-Up.
A race where local issues may feature prominently, particularly the perceived over-development of Cardiff’s green belt and suburbs – in particular the proposed new Velindre Cancer Centre at Whitchurch.
Plaid messed things up here when they might’ve been in with a sniff of third place. The Tory vote here has been falling back in previous Senedd elections, but they still only need a 5% swing from Labour and that’s well within reach; the only thing that could scupper that may be a few hundred votes going to the Abolish candidate.
Verdict: Toss-Up.
Probably the seat in the region most likely to change hands. Even in the good polls for Labour it’s being listed as going to the Conservatives.
Earlier in the year, there were rumours Jane Hutt was going to announce her intention to stand down and the decision not to could be a mistake.
It’s reminiscent of Madeline Moon’s decision not to stand down in Bridgend in 2019 which partly contributed to the loss of the Westminster seat to the Tories; there comes a point in all politicians lives where their shelf life runs out and the party needs new blood and Jane Hutt is one of the Labour MSs who’ve long gone past that point.
That doesn’t mean Labour couldn’t pull off another narrow victory here – and a large number of alternative candidates from the right-leaning parties could help. The Tories seem to have their act together this time though, though it’s cowardly of Andrew RT Davies not to have run here himself.
Verdict: Toss-Up.
The Race Elsewhere
18 months ago this race would have been interesting, but due to global events and the increased profile of Mark Drakeford it’s perhaps more predictable. He should win far more comfortably than in 2016. It goes without saying how embarrassing it would be for Labour if he didn’t.
Attention here will focus on how well Neil McEvoy does relative to Plaid Cymru. Neil McEvoy is more than capable of finishing a decent if distant second place if everything goes well for him. Just finishing ahead of Rhys ab Owen will be treated as a major moral victory for Propel going into next year’s local elections.
If it’s the other way around though, then it’ll no doubt be greeted with amusement by large sections of the Welsh Twitterati and the memes will start appearing fairly quickly I presume.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
It seems everyone wants to give the Health Minister a kicking and given his high profile during the Covid-19 pandemic it’s not unexpected that he’s been picked out like this. In 2016 there were only six candidates; this year there are twelve.
You would expect a lot of the candidates for the smaller parties to receive two or three-figure votes, but combined with a low turnout that could distort the overall shares perhaps. Nonetheless, the gap between Vaughan Gething and the rest is big enough to absorb it.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
Plaid Cymru was once competitive in this seat – coming very, very close to winning the seat in 1999 – but that’s gradually waned away to the point where I doubt Vikki Howells has anything to worry about.
Verdict: Safe Labour.
Another seat where Plaid Cymru (and the Lib Dems) have done well in the past – and where they (Plaid) might be expecting a good second place this time around – but has remained solidly Labour.
The gap is too far for anyone else to overcome barring something big happening locally. That may be dissatisfaction with the Welsh Government’s handling of the 2020 floods or long-standing questions over the future of services at the Royal Glamorgan Hospital.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
I was tempted to include this as a one to watch. It’s shaping up to be a bit of a nasty one with reports of Plaid Cymru signs being ripped down and defaced (garden placards should be banned in my opinion) and Labour skullduggery in nominating their candidate for a St David’s Day Award.
This is perhaps the only seat Labour stands a realistic chance of gaining. While Leanne Wood’s calls for a public inquiry into the 2020 floods will have gone down well and she’s produced a detailed paper on the future of the Rhondda, Plaid Cymru’s vote has started to fall back here, dropping by up to 9% at the 2019 UK election.
There’s enough goodwill towards Leanne Wood personally to enable her to hang on, but it’ll probably be with a significantly reduced majority, putting the seat firmly back in play for 2026.
In previous elections there’ve been two seats for the Conservatives and at least one for Plaid Cymru. You would expect both parties to be guaranteed at least one seat each in 2021.
As for the third and fourth seats, it’ll come down to how the Cardiff North, Rhondda and Vale of Glamorgan constituency races go.
If the Tories win either or both of their targets, then you would put Plaid ahead of them in the race for a second seat. If the Tories don’t win any additional constituencies then they should keep their second list seat.
Abolish the Assembly, Lib Dems and Greens will likely be in the frame for the fourth seat depending on the mathematics. It’ll also be interesting to see how Propel does on the list. While Neil McEvoy certainly has a high profile in western Cardiff, he probably doesn’t across the region as a whole. The irony is that Leanne Wood would have to lose Rhondda to reduce the chances of Propel gaining/retaining a list seat.