(Title Image: BBC Wales)
With the Senedd election “well underway” (and that’s stretching it), over the final two-and-a-half weeks of the campaign or so I’ll be looking at each of the races in the forty constituencies and five regional lists. I’ll also be looking at the content of the manifestos (though some parties better get a move on to publish theirs), as well as a run down of the Police & Crime Commissioner elections.
That’s all coming up, but today I’ll look at perhaps the easiest set of seats to predict – in the South Wales West region.
At the end of each summary for the constituencies I’ll offer my verdict on which way I think things might go as things stand:
- Safe – The named party will be expected to hold the seat comfortably. If they don’t it’ll be one of the shocks of the election.
- Likely – You can make an educated guess that the named party will keep/win the seat but not as comfortably as a safe seat.
- Lean – One party will perhaps have an advantage over the others, but the margin of victory will likely be under 10%.
- Toss-Up – These are the contests to look out for when the votes are counted on Friday 7th May and are likely to be close (under 5% margin of victory) or are seats likely to change hands.
Ones to Watch
I took a more detailed look at this one at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr last week.
The Conservatives took the Westminster seat in 2019 to the surprise of most people living outside Bridgend (but few living here; it was coming for a while). The Senedd seat, however, has remained consistently Labour with little to no challenge from the other parties.
Some of that may be down to Carwyn Jones’s personal vote and/or prestigious position as First Minister. With him standing down and being replaced with a relatively low-profile candidate, that may have presented the best chance for another party – namely the Conservatives – taking the seat for themselves.
Unfortunately for the Conservatives, a last-minute candidate change sucked a lot of energy out of their campaign which is noticeably lower-key than in 2019 – perhaps as the party eyes the more realistic target of two regional list seats, rather than trying to secure a 10%+ swing in Bridgend.
It’s the sort of seat which, if Labour lost, means they’re in for a bad result nationally. Labour are well aware of the potential threat (particularly given the large numbers of candidates standing) and have been getting a bit twitchy recently but as long as they can get their vote out they should hang on.
Verdict: Lean Labour.
Once Edwina Hart’s seat, the winning margin for Labour in 2016 fell back to the point where the Conservatives are in touching distance. The Tories very briefly held the Westminster seat between 2015-2017, but Tonia Antoniazzi retook it convincingly for Labour.
Similarly, while Rebecca Evans stood in the seat in 2016 as a relative unknown (having previously been a list member for Mid & West Wales), she’s since risen to hold one of the high-profile roles in the Welsh Government as Finance Minister and has performed relatively well.
This seat has been predicted in some polls to change hands. You would expect a close-ish result, but with local factors at play, Rebecca Evans probably has an advantage due to her increased profile. I’d err on the side of caution and presume in favour of Labour, but it’s probably the only constituency race in the region worth keeping an eye on.
Verdict: Lean Labour.
The Race Elsewhere
Anything less than a 25% majority would be a poor result for Labour here.
Verdict: Safe Labour.
While recently-published comments by the former leader of Neath Port Talbot Council will hardly have helped matters for Labour, Plaid Cymru has always talked up their prospects here without threatening to win. It’ll also be interesting to see where the 2016 UKIP vote goes; if it goes to the Tories there’s a chance they might push to finish second.
Plaid Cymru would need a swing to themselves from Labour of around 6% to win the seat. While that’s possible, it’s perhaps unlikely given the relatively crowded candidate list. Now that Jeremy Miles is a bit more well known – and likely to be one of the frontrunners to succeed Mark Drakeford as Labour leader in the future – you would expect an incumbency advantage. Like Bridgend, it’s the sort of seat which – if Labour lost -means they’re on course for a bad election.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
Previewed in more detail at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr.
If Huw Irranca-Davies loses here, the Sun will turn black and the seas will boil.
The more interesting race is for second place. Plaid Cymru will be expecting a good second place here, but if the large UKIP vote in 2016 goes mainly to the Tories they could face a challenge. This may also be a seat where Propel may do relatively well given the high local profile and electoral experience of their candidate.
Verdict: Safe Labour.
It would take something special to unseat Mike Hedges and his closest challenger in 2016, from UKIP, still finished miles behind.
Verdict: Safe Labour.
Likely to be a bit closer than 2016 perhaps, but Labour has maintained a reasonably advantage over the challenging parties. Like many other seats in the region, it’ll be a more interesting race to finish second, with Dr Dai Lloyd standing here for Plaid Cymru (and having previously performed well in this seat when standing in previous elections) and both the Lib Dems and Conservatives still having a fairly strong presence.
Verdict: Likely Labour.
The Conservatives will likely be favourites in the race to win two list seats as UKIP voters “come home” – though they’ll face more competition from the likes of Reform UK, continuity UKIP and Abolish the Assembly.
Plaid Cymru will also be guaranteed one list seat, but they’ll be desperate to keep hold of two and will be counting on large numbers of Labour voters giving them their list vote (as explained in the graphic at the top, if Labour wins all or most of the constituencies here they don’t stand a chance of winning a regional list seat).
The Lib Dems have won and kept list seats in the region before, but they’re a shadow of their former selves. I doubt Abolish the Assembly stand a realistic chance of winning a seat here (though they do on other lists), ditto the Greens.
