(Title Image: BBC Wales)
Key Events of the Fifth Senedd involving parties outside the “Big Three”
Wales votes to Leave the EU – To the shock of the Welsh political establishment, Wales joined England (though not to the same extent) in voting to leave the European Union in June 2016. This was just weeks after a Senedd election which saw UKIP burst onto the scene having finally come to terms with devolution (ha) and running a fairly professional campaign backed by a proper manifesto.
Although without UKIP there would never have been a referendum in the first place (because there would have been nothing to scare the Tories into holding one), it’s somewhat ironic that UKIP played a fairly minor role in the Leave campaign itself. It was won by Tory and Labour voters in the main – which is why the Senedd election result should have rung alarm bells within the Welsh Remain campaign yet didn’t.
There was a wasted week/fortnight of campaigning in Wales caused by a failure to settle the post of First Minister immediately following the election. There was also a distinct lack of energy by the Remain campaign on the streets and online, with the Leave campaign being far savvier in targeting voters and getting their case out.
The four years following the referendum was dominated by the fallout, including failed attempts to get a second referendum, a pretty disastrous set of negotiations by the UK Government and a Senedd trying to – perhaps for the first time since devolution – implement something they never believed in.
Kirsty Williams and Dafydd Elis-Thomas become ministers – Two non-Labour ministerial appointments and largely for the same reason – to ensure a working majority in the Senedd. Kirsty Williams was brought in perhaps by accident, or because she demonstrated the leverage she had by guaranteeing Carwyn Jones would be appointed First Minister.
Other than the position of First Minister itself, given the numbers she probably could’ve picked whatever role she wanted. The two poison chalices in Welsh politics are health (for obvious reasons) and at the tail end of the Fourth Senedd education became one as well due to pressure to reform student finance, the furore over slipping standards and Wales’ performance in OECD PISA tests.
Politically, the move ensured that despite almost being wiped out in Wales, the Lib Dems would continue to remain relevant. I mentioned the list of policy achievements in a previous piece, but the new National Curriculum – the first designed in Wales since 2008 – will probably be considered her legacy achievement.
While Kirsty Williams has been one of the better ministerial performers of the Fifth Senedd, in the case of Dafydd Elis-Thomas it’s been not so much poor but unremarkable.
It was long rumoured that once he left Plaid Cymru he would be brought into the Welsh Government. The opportunity presented itself at the ill-fated November 2017 reshuffle when a deputy ministerial position for culture was created – ironically, in part at Plaid Cymru’s request.
Probably his single biggest achievement in office was the establishment of Creative Wales, which played a key role in supporting the arts sector through the pandemic and has been well-received (albeit with criticism over the delays in setting it up).
While politicians don’t necessarily have to fix anything that isn’t broken – and it’s sometimes a good idea to leave something alone than give in to the temptation to interfere – Dafydd Elis-Thomas seemingly went out of his way to avoid making big decisions. His tenure as Llywydd will likely be more keenly and fondly remembered than a rather forgettable ministerial stint.
The Disintegration of UKIP – It didn’t take too long for UKIP to fall apart in the Senedd, starting within a few weeks of the election with Nathan Gill ousted as group leader by Neil Hamilton.
Anyone familiar with populist and hard-right groups would’ve seen it coming. UKIP have a track record of splits and defections. There’s usually a conflict between purists who want the party to take a harder line on some subjects (and to hell with the consequences) and the more professional success-oriented members who want to win elections or retain their seats by being a bit more flexible. As a result, these parties are usually left floundering when they have to consider anything serious and that’s been the case in the Senedd to an extent.
The “professionals” who got UKIP into the Senedd (or joined not long afterwards) went their separate ways once the Brexit Party was founded and, unsurprisingly, that trio – David Rowlands, Mandy Jones and Caroline Jones – included the more productive members of the UKIP intake (albeit unspectacular). Mark Reckless hedged his bets until he was able to openly commit to abolishing devolution, while Michelle Brown was seemingly not popular amongst either group. That left the purist wing-nuts Neil Hamilton and Gareth Bennett, who saw abolishing devolution as a new post-Brexit cause albeit with two separate vehicles.
Perhaps UKIP’s single biggest contribution to the Senedd – because of their own musical chairs – is a cast-iron case to reform or scrap the list member system.
Neil McEvoy Propel-ed from Plaid Cymru – Some people are team players, some people aren’t. Some people think they are the team. From the moment Neil McEvoy was returned on the regional list in 2016, there was a countdown to some sort of confrontation.
Plaid Cymru has long tried to shake off its reputation in some of the south as being a party for the Welsh-speaking professional classes. Under Leanne Wood’s leadership, the party threw its backing behind broad causes of the liberal left, some of which clashed with McEvoy’s (and others) style as a “pavement pounder” who would use his new national platform to champion local causes and casework – particularly cases where an individual or group are deemed to be on the receiving end of unjust treatment by the authorities.
People may scoff at his efforts, but there hasn’t been a single member of the Fifth Senedd as effective in generating headlines from very little. For every member of the Twitterati who gets stuffy about the social media videos on fly-tipping, or issues with social services, there’ll be someone who sees McEvoy as standing up for them. The detractors ought to know that these things can seriously impact people’s lives, which is something those in Labour and Plaid Cymru have forgotten.
Being a marmite figure has its good side, but it also has a bad side. There are clear temper issues and he’s gone way too far on more than one occasion. As with all populists, there’s a very fine line between being a political maverick and a disruptive influence on democracy.
Given his Propel party/limited company already has around a half dozen defectors in local government, it’s not this election people should be focusing on – although Cardiff West will still likely be in play – it’s next year’s council elections. That will determine whether Propel is a fleeting project of one man’s ego, or are going to be around for a while longer.
(Note for the graphic below: It was before Gareth Bennett “left” Abolish).
LIKELY TO WIN SEATS
- Positives: The most recognisable minor party in Wales and have a track record in government with genuine and meaningful achievements they can point towards.
- Negatives: The last 11 years. Where do you want me to start?
Perhaps there’ll be a bit of backlash for describing the Lib Dems as a minor party, but it’s not a joke. Barring the fact their only Senedd member was a minister, why should they be considered anything else? They desperately need a new niche.
While 2016 was a humiliating year for the party, Kirsty Williams made the best of a bad situation. They perhaps have more cause to be optimistic this time around than last time. They did OK during the 2017 local elections and there was something of a mini-recovery during the 2019 UK election – though that was perhaps a last hurrah of the Remainers than anything else.
They should be optimistic about their chances of holding on to Brecon & Radnor, are capable of challenging Labour in Cardiff Central and will always be competitive in Montgomery, Ceredigion and a few regional list contests. On a very good night, they might win 2 or 3 seats, but as things stand it’s looking like William Powell will make a return to the Senedd by himself.
- Positives: A very sizable proportion of the population support direct-rule from London for a multitude of reasons, ranging from those who don’t believe Wales should exist politically to those angry at the Welsh Government’s pandemic measures being different to England. Direct-rule is at least as popular as independence and the atmosphere is perfect for a very large protest vote.
- Negatives: Some “characters” are involved and their Facebook page is a sewer. They can very easily have the anti-Welsh tag stuck to them, will struggle to bring anything positive to the table and have to feed the Welsh inferiority complex in order to be successful (which, sadly, will work).
Some people are writing them off given recent revelations on last-minute candidate drop-outs and Gareth Bennett’s seeming departure, but that would be a mistake. They are still set to have a full slate of candidates for the regional lists and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t win seats; at the very least Mark Reckless stands a good chance of returning to Cardiff Bay. They don’t need the backroom support, resources or publicity of the bigger parties because of the name – people know exactly what they’ll be voting for (or against in this case). Given they were very close to winning a seat in 2016, they ought to have an idea as to what they need to do this time around.
While you wouldn’t expect them to do much in the constituencies they’re standing in (though even there I’d expect them to do better than expected), if the election went perfectly for them they could easily do something similar to UKIP in 2016 – pushing for two seats on each of the lists (though that would almost certainly come at the expense of the Conservatives).
The only things which may scupper their chances are a low turnout (people inclined to vote Abolish might not be too bothered about voting in a Senedd election, ironically); a split in the anti-devolution/Wales vote between themselves, Reform UK and UKIP, or that too many 2016 UKIP voters switch (back) to the Tories.
WILL BE COMPETITIVE/COULD WIN SEATS
- Positives: The environment is increasingly at the forefront of people’s concerns and given the high priority placed upon it by young people, they could benefit from the reduction in the voting age to 16.
- Negatives: They’re entirely reliant on the regional lists yet have never come close to winning any seats that way. Plaid Cymru occupies the same ground far more successfully.
There have been some interesting developments within the Greens over the last few years. Despite rejecting the chance to become a stand-alone Welsh party, they have agreed to support independence if a referendum is held in the future – in line with their Scottish sister party. Maybe after years of having Plaid fight on their turf as one of the more ecologically-minded parties in Wales, they’ve decided to fight on Plaid’s turf for the (progressive) nationalist vote.
As always, there are several challenges facing them. They’re standing in constituencies again which, time after time, has been a waste of money and campaign resources as they’re still in the “retaining their deposit would be a good result” phase. A list-only strategy would perhaps be better.
Additionally, there aren’t enough seats on the regional lists to allow them to sneak in; if there were six seats on each list instead of four they might be in with a shout. They would need to at least double their regional list vote share in 2016 to stand a chance. While their polling figures look to be a significant improvement on 2016, they’re still likely to fall short – but given the crazy circumstances the election is being fought in, who knows? Mid & West Wales and South Wales East are perhaps the most promising avenues.
- Standing in: Aberavon, Arfon, Blaenau Gwent, Brecon & Radnor, Bridgend (x2), Cardiff South & Penarth, Cardiff West, Cynon Valley, Islwyn, Llanelli, Monmouth, Neath, North Wales (regional list), Pontypridd, South Wales Central (regional list), South Wales West (regional list), Torfaen, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan.
While Wales has a tradition of electing Independents at local authority and community council level, Independents don’t have a particularly good track record of winning seats in Senedd elections. The only example of note is John Marek (2003), while even the likes of Trish Law had (minor) party backing.
The most interesting twist is Nick Ramsay’s recent decision to leave the Conservatives and stand as an Independent in Monmouth after a lengthy falling-out with the Conservative branch in Wales and his constituency party.
What would have otherwise been a relatively routine win for the Conservatives has now become a race to keep an eye on, perhaps. While this may – in an extreme scenario – end up splitting the Conservative vote and potentially allowing Labour through the middle, he’s gambling on his own popularity (and this is likely to be – as many people have suggested – a move to secure a lost seat payout). Given that Peter Fox is highly thought of, the Conservatives will still be clear favourites in Monmouth.
- Positives: Neil McEvoy has a relatively high profile/personal vote and will be a genuine challenger in Cardiff West.
- Negatives: Neil McEvoy has a relatively high profile….for the wrong reasons. They’re over-reliant on Cardiff West and it’s hard to see them making in-roads anywhere else.
As mentioned earlier, Propel’s goal this year will be to ensure Neil McEvoy remains in the Senedd. Despite standing list candidates, it’ll ultimately be about Cardiff West and nowhere else. The goal of the lists is, I suspect, to raise profiles ahead of next year’s council elections where Propel could potentially win several seats with the right candidates.
At the moment they’re not even registering on opinion polls (presumably because they’re not being included on the questions), but Neil McEvoy could easily win 20%+ of the vote in Cardiff West – though that campaign will decide once and for all whether he needed Plaid Cymru and their organisational ability more than they needed him.
I’ll be looking at policy proposals in more detail in the coming weeks, but there have been some some strange noises coming from their direction, including support for coal bed methane extraction (not strictly fracking, but a gateway to it), opposition to lockdowns, cutting the number of councils to eight (seemingly a Swiss-style canton system) and reintroducing Right to Buy. While it’s certainly populist, it’s also relatively conservative. Are Propel going for their share of the 2016 UKIP vote?
- Positives: They proved in 2016 that they’re capable of winning large numbers of seats off the back of very little. They still have brand name recognition.
- Negatives: They’re directionless and under previous leadership there was very little separating them from the likes of the BNP and National Front, plus they’re competing in a crowded marketplace for “the gammon vote”.
UKIP are a shadow of their former selves and having split into several different parties, the chances of them repeating 2016 are slim. That said, they’ve done well to put up a full slate of candidates on the regional lists and are standing in quite a few constituencies too.
Some polls have suggested they may pick up a seat in South Wales East. That isn’t impossible, but it would be very surprising given that following the 2019 European Election UKIP’s brand standing is somewhere between the Natural Law Party and the National Front. Abolish the Assembly are a “purer” form of the old UKIP.
- Positives: Nigel Farage (if he can be bothered to get involved) would give them serious air time.
- Negatives: They don’t seem to stand for anything anymore given that Brexit is done and dusted.
For Reform UK, see UKIP (but a bit more palatable and presentable). Seeing as Nigel Farage has walked away from politics (for now), it’s difficult to see why people would vote for Reform UK. You can see how much of a “flash in the pan” they were from the chart above.
Committing to reform of the UK isn’t necessarily a bad idea, but it’s unlikely to get the juices flowing in the same way as Brexit. Technically, the party has members in the Senedd, with David Rowlands a confirmed Reform UK candidate at least despite sitting as an Independent in the Senedd. Caroline Jones is standing in Bridgend and on the South Wales West list as an Independent though. It’s all a bit confusing.
OTHERS
Gwlad – Propel has seemingly stolen their thunder a little bit (and an eventual merger or formal electoral pact surely isn’t off the cards at some point), but the establishment of the party was driven by a sense amongst some Welsh nationalists that Plaid Cymru didn’t represent them (namely those on the centre-right). Their manifesto is fairly extensive, albeit with some strange ideas for a post-independent Wales. Like Propel, as they’re not featuring in the polls it’s difficult to determine how well they’ll do – though there’s no obvious route towards winning a seat. As usual, you would expect Sian Caiach to do reasonably well in Llanelli and cause problems for Plaid Cymru.
Llais Gwynedd – They have long-standing local government experience and have been going for some time with an element of organisation behind them. However, Plaid can blow them out of the water and have been making more noise on their natural turf (i.e. second homes). Also, they’ve been in gradual decline for several years. They’ve only confirmed a candidate for Dwyfor Meironnydd at the moment, while one of their (former) well-known personalities – Louise Hughes – is standing for Reform UK.
Freedom Alliance/No More Lockdowns – Seemingly two separate parties campaigning on an anti-lockdown ticket. Combined, they’re standing candidates on every regional list and in some constituencies.
Socialist & Far-Left – TUSC (Trade Union & Socialist Coalition), the Workers Party and the Communist Party will be standing candidates on some or all of the regional lists. Socialist Party GB have at least one constituency candidate.
Christian Party – Standing candidates on the Mid & West Wales regional list.
Some of the parties seemingly not running this year after running in 2016 (subject to confirmation) include: Monster Raving Loony Party (Lily the Pink remains a heroine), English Democrats (Abolish the Assembly are doing the heavy lifting there now), Women’s Equality Party, Sovereign Wales, National Front & Vapers in Power.