(Title Image: South Wales Argus)
Five Key Events of the Fifth Senedd
Plaid-Labour Compact – Negotiated following the 2016 Senedd election and Brexit referendum results, the compact (which fell short of a formal confidence-and-supply agreement) saw Plaid Cymru offer input into two Welsh budgets and a joint Labour-Plaid Cymru position on Brexit. There were also privileged conversations between the two parties at a ministerial level.
Plaid got there by playing hardball. Perhaps still sore from Leighton Andrews’ infamous “cheap date” jibe at the tail end of the Fourth Senedd (which seems tame given the last five years), the opposition parties backed Leanne Wood’s first ministerial nomination at the first post-election Senedd meeting. This resulted in a surprise tied-vote, though it was unclear what the reasoning behind this was as there was no formal move to form a coalition of opposition parties.
One of the legacies from the compact is also one of the big – yet quiet – success stories of the Fifth Senedd: the establishment of the Development Bank (Banc), which has come into its own during the pandemic. The National Infrastructure Commission, by contrast, appears to have not lived up to expectations.
The conclusion of the compact in 2017 – while at the time a relatively amicable end – resulted in a gradual cooling of relations between Labour and Plaid Cymru as the Fifth Senedd continued; Labour tried to shake off claims of being soft-nationalists and Plaid tried to put distance between themselves and Labour to present themselves as a genuine alternative government.
Continuity Act & Death of Steffan Lewis – With the Remain parties having lost the “war” over Brexit as a result of the 2016 referendum there was at least an attempt by the late Steffan Lewis to win the peace. The fear from the nationalist side, post-Brexit, was that Wales would lose the safety net the EU provided. As part of that safety net, a multi-national, multi-layered political union which allowed different levels of self-government could work. With that safety net taken away, there was a risk that the traditionally high-handed government machinery in London would reassert their authority through the centralisation of power; “Take Back Control” was exclusive to Westminster.
The idea behind the Continuity Act would be that it would protect the devolved settlement from any attempt by the UK Government to take back EU powers (which before Brexit were exercised by the Welsh Government on Brussels’ behalf) for themselves. The idea had the backing of the Remain-supporting portion of the Senedd, but in the spirit of being seen to be “good Unionists”, the Welsh Government eventually agreed to repeal the law to avoid being challenged in the Supreme Court. Within a few years, the UK’s Internal Market Act and “Shared Prosperity Fund” proved that Steffan Lewis’ far-sighted fears were completely reasonable.
The loss of Steffan Lewis to bowel cancer in January 2019 hit the Senedd on an intellectual level, as well as on a personal level for many who worked with him. Fortunately, his successor Delyth Jewell has managed to play a key part in the healing process by complementing Steffan’s legacy whilst setting a stall out for herself.
Adam Price elected party leader – This was always on the cards at some point given the esteem he’s long been held in by nationalists, but when the opportunity presented itself in 2018 he won fairly convincingly.
Despite the happy-clappy stuff on social media, when you drill down into Plaid Cymru’s electoral performances since 2012 the picture is far from rosy. They didn’t go backwards under Leanne Wood’s leadership by any means but made little progress too despite Leanne being given a higher level of media coverage than any Plaid leader in history. It was increasingly hard to determine what Plaid Cymru was for and what strategy they had to get into a position to lead a government when the wider left – despite membership surges, Corbynism and new movements to rally behind – were being pummeled by a successful wave of right-wing populism.
Being someone who seemingly relishes these strategic challenges, Adam Price set to work ordering a review of the party by the SNP’s Angus Robertson. A new think tank was established, a name change proposed and independence was moved further towards the front of Plaid’s USP than at any time in the previous 30-40 years.
Unfortunately, reform of the party quickly fell by the wayside. The Nova Cambria think tank seemingly hasn’t done anything since it first launched in 2019. There hasn’t been a name change. Adam Price has also been unconvincing when trying to (or not doing anything at all) sort out some of the party’s serious internal problems. Where there have been noticable improvements they’ve come in terms of the scrutiny of the government and presentation of policy positions. It’s a question as to whether that’s only a half-done job because all those other issues haven’t gone away.
Outflanked by YesCymru on the National Question – The growth in support for Welsh independence has largely come about despite Plaid Cymru than because of them. Some of that increase is down to external factors (Brexit, muscular Unionism); some of it is because of the non-partisan position taken from the start by YesCymru which has allowed affiliated groups like Undod, Labour for an IndyWales and, yes, the likes of Gwlad, to find a place and niche under the umbrella.
In the days of Ieuan Wyn Jones and Dafydd Wigley, you got the impression even mentioning independence as a word was considered electoral suicide by Plaid Cymru. For a long time it’s been couched in euphemisms like “eventual self-government in a Europe of nations and regions”. You can still see the party’s traditionally cautious approach to independence in their relatively sober Independence Commission report.
While Leanne Wood gave enough of a nod towards independence to sound serious without needing to make any real commitment, it wasn’t until the AUOB marches started in 2019 that Plaid perhaps realised that they were losing control of the reins a little bit.
Plaid Cymru certainly wants to be the vanguard of the independence movement (I don’t think anyone can dispute their support for independence on an individual level, they just didn’t think it would get to this stage this quickly), yet simultaneously have long wanted to keep the question itself at arm’s length for practical reasons (such as economics). That’s perhaps because their aims have long been based around cultural than constitutional nationalism, meaning they’ve never needed to be a broad church. If they want to prove they’re up to the task of leading Wales to independence and hold a referendum by 2026 (far more ambitious that they’ve been previously), then they have to demonstrate they’re a genuinely all-Wales party in the same way the SNP have in Scotland. Easier said than done.
Departures, splits and off-the-field scandals – Away from the social media bubble, it’s been a very difficult five years for Plaid Cymru. The internal tensions and groupthink that emerged at the tail end of the Fourth Senedd carried over. Neil McEvoy was looking for a fight from day one while Dafydd Elis-Thomas long had one foot out the door; their eventual departures/expulsions were not unexpected.
There have been big slip-ups on social media (contempt of court; accusations of transphobia and antisemitism) and administrative problems (a large Electoral Commission fine for poor accounting practices; in-fighting in local branches). That’s before mentioning criminal investigations into individuals, none of which is Plaid Cymru’s fault but bad PR nonetheless.
Key Strengths
They have capable candidates and provided the most consistently constructive scrutiny of the Welsh Government’s response to Brexit and Covid-19. This sometimes led to big concessions. Some Plaid backbenchers give the impression of having a higher public profile than their Labour counterparts (especially Labour backbenchers), while during the One Wales coalition they proved they were capable of holding office competently. You can certainly picture them as a government-in-waiting more so than their counterparts on the Conservative benches and individual members certainly talk-the-talk. Will they actually get that opportunity though?
There’s the potential that they could ride the wave of increased support for independence and those concerned by the threat to devolution posed by the current UK Government. Even if it’s perhaps a far more complicated picture than Plaid Cymru think (there are those who support independence who are wary of Plaid for other reasons, some of which I’ll touch on shortly), this could mark a point where soft support for independence (i.e. the Indycurious; those who say they would vote Yes in a referendum but aren’t that enthusiastic) solidifies behind them a bit. They can count on around 20% of the vote, but to put themselves in a position to lead a government it needs to hit 30%+ – which even then is still lower than present levels of support for independence in a Yes-No question (with don’t knows removed).
They’re the most digitally-savvy political party in Wales. That could prove crucial in an election campaign that’s likely to be fought online more vigorously than in previous elections. Their spring 2021 conference seemed very well organised given the circumstances, while Plaid has made a conscious effort to court the youth vote. They perhaps don’t have to spend that much on digital advertising as they have a large organic reach online and they seem to have gotten a foothold on newer social media platforms like TikTok much sooner than other parties. It’s down to a matter of reaching people outside the Plaid echo chamber – which due to how social media works is as much a challenge to overcome as it is a useful tool.
Plaid Cymru is unlikely to face that much competition from the splinter parties (Gwlad, Propel etc.) in general. This is certainly true on the regional lists because I doubt that many people outside of the Welsh political Twittersphere will have heard of the likes of Gwlad; constituencies are a different matter, particularly Llanelli and Cardiff West. Plaid is also swimming in a completely different pool of voters to the Conservatives, Abolish etc. and are still recognised as the nationalist party. Resultingly, they’re near-guaranteed around 20-25% of the national vote. If there’s a very low turnout (as I suspect might be the case), Plaid stands to benefit disproportionately as you would expect greater buy-in to Senedd elections from their core support than supporters of other parties.
Key Challenges
The oldest chestnut: “They’re a party for Welsh-speakers”. Whether it’s true or not doesn’t matter as that’s how they’ve been pigeonholed and it’s questionable whether they’ve done enough to shake off this tag; they won’t win an election or independence without English monoglots on board. In the south, with a few exceptions they’re seen as a bit of a middle-class party too – Labour/Lib Dems for the Tafwyl and Eisteddfod crowd – with their own cliquey establishment. While they can usually count on the support of at least 20% of the electorate in Senedd election nationally, at constituency level it usually matches the proportion of adult Welsh-speakers.
They seem poorly-run and gaffe-prone. Despite their outward appearance of professionalism, there’s been an embarrassing number of off-the-field scandals this term. There are a lot of egos involved and the national cause has all too often become tied to personal causes within and around the party, leading to groupthink and cliques grouped around individuals. Social media has made it far simpler to pick up on and amplify this. It’s also suspicious that these splits almost always seem to happen in places where Plaid have made progress to some extent. Are their candidates selected fairly? Do they properly vet new members? Should they stop and think before handing a membership form to that councillor who’s just defected for the fourth time?
Plaid Rhan O Gymru. In large parts of the country Plaid Cymru’s presence is close to non-existent and it becomes a self-perpetuating cycle of low membership, low campaigning energy and subsequent low support from the centre. Where there’s been a breakthrough (or near-miss) in recent years, it’s often been a result of individual efforts and candidates having a high personal profile. There’s no clear strategy for growth outside their core area in Y Fro or beyond those seats where so-called “rising/established stars” are standing. As Ashley Drake recently found out, if you’re in the wrong place and your voice doesn’t carry enough weight at the top of the party, Plaid will be more than willing to throw you under a bus.
It’s becoming too easy to point to them saying one thing then doing another. Plaid Cymru has been far too focused on how they present their message than the content and consistency of the message itself. They struggle to speak plainly. They over-think relatively straightforward problems which resultingly ties them in knots and makes it harder for them to explain their reasoning; I picture them asking themselves questions like, “Which literary quote defines this new recycling policy the best?” instead of, “Is this actually going to work?”
A streak of NIMBYism has been developing within Plaid for a while now too – camouflaged by their new found obsession with the Future Generations Act – yet that brings it immediately into conflict with their desire to put shovels in the ground on grand new national or regional (some may argue pork barrel) projects. There are also times they’ve supported a particular policy (in the Senedd) then done the opposite (in local government or on a local branch/personal level) – and it’s been that way for a decade or more. The most recent high-profile example is – as suggested above – their seeming last minute u-turn in support of the new Velindre Cancer Centre in Cardiff after vocally opposing the choice of location. It’s pragmatism done badly and once parties get a reputation for u-turns, not having any clear principles and talking down to people it can turn very ugly, very quickly – just ask the Lib Dems.
Plaid’s polling figures have been stable and usually rise and fall within the margin of error (+/- 2%). In normal circumstances that would be a relatively good thing, but for those convinced Plaid Cymru will lead the next government it’s not so good. There does seem to be a ceiling in Plaid support in and around 20-25%.
If there are going to be any gains, they’ll likely come on the regional lists (particularly North Wales and South Wales East) depending on constituency results.
Other than notionally gaining Dwyfor Meirionnydd (which Plaid lost when Dafydd Elis-Thomas left the party; it would be a massive shock if Mabon ap Gwynfor didn’t win there), there are three obvious constituency targets: Aberconwy, Caerphilly and Llanelli. Though given Plaid’s relative lack of success in taking constituency seats from other parties in the same manner as the SNP, only the most optimistic Plaid supporter will think they will take all of them. One is possible (and Llanelli is perhaps the most likely of the three), two is stretching it but within reason, three or more is perhaps unlikely to happen (depending on turnout).
I doubt Blaenau Gwent and Cardiff West will be in play for Plaid Cymru in the same manner they were in 2016 either. There are also plenty of seats where Plaid have talked themselves up but made limited progress such as Neath, Cynon Valley, Islwyn, Aberavon and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire.
In terms of defences, Labour will be quietly confident they can push Leanne Wood in Rhondda. Plaid’s vote share in Rhondda slipped back quite a bit at the 2019 UK election (not directly comparable, but worrying nonetheless). That might be worth keeping an eye on as a potential “surprise”. The Lib Dems are always a threat in Ceredigion too, though more so at Westminster level.
What would be a good result?
It’s obvious that Plaid want to win constituencies. Given the quirks of the additional member system, winning constituencies won’t necessarily mean an increase in overall seats unless they get a high proportion of list votes as well.
So while Plaid Cymru are campaigning with a message to Labour supporters “not to waste their regional list vote” and give it to them, longer-term the party wants to tilt away from a reliance on list seats to winning and holding constituencies like the SNP – namely the three mentioned earlier: Aberconwy, Caerphilly and Llanelli. In general, a decent result for Plaid (regardless of constituency or regional list gains) would be around 13-16 seats and challenging the Tories to become the largest opposition party again (though most polls suggest a third-placed finish).
Plaid has long ruled out working with the Conservatives and have seemingly ruled-out any coalition with Labour that would result in them being the junior partner, but there has to be something for them to point to afterwards as a success because they can’t afford another five years as the third party.
