(Title Image: Welsh Labour)
With the 2021 Senedd election in full swing (or in as much swing as is possible under the circumstances), this week I’ll be giving a detailed run down of where the three main parties are at the moment, as well as a look at the prospects of the new and minor parties set to run in May.
I start with Labour.
Five Key Events of the Fifth Senedd
Brexit Hangover – The Fifth Senedd has seemingly been one disaster for Labour to manage after another. It started within weeks of the new term with Wales voting to leave the EU (one of the few occasions where Labour have been on the wrong side of public opinion in Wales). Labour subsequently had to deal with on-off pressure to support a second Brexit referendum, the rise and fall of Corbynism and rise of Boris Johnson Populism/Bullshit respectively, two UK general elections (one not so bad, the other a bit of a disaster) and behind the scenes Brexit bureaucracy tying the hands of the Welsh Government in other ways.
Decision-making became slower than we’re used to (which was pretty slow anyway). The Welsh Government had to try and simultaneously make the case for a softer form of Brexit (which didn’t happen), placate a Leave-voting Welsh public (who have seemingly now changed their minds) and try to flesh out a post-Brexit vision for devolved EU policy areas in Wales (largely kicked into the next term because it took ages for the UK to agree to a deal).
Death of Carl Sargeant – One of the most shocking events in modern Welsh political history, which brought Carwyn Jones’s premiership to a slightly premature end in 2018. The whole episode stinks, from the mishandling of the original harassment complaints (from both perspectives), the circumstances around Carl Sargeant’s dismissal (which we will never get the full picture of) and contradictory statements during the coroner’s inquest.
With the processes now over, hopefully the Sargeant family has some sense of closure; but this certainly changed something in Cardiff Bay. The Welsh political bubble likes to present itself as being squeaky clean, but everything seemed a lot murkier after this, not helped by the overall poor quality of debate and standards of behaviour this term.
Climate Emergency Declaration & Newport Bypass – While overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate emergency hasn’t gone away. The Senedd became one of the first legislatures in the world to declare such an emergency following pressure brought on by a global youth strike movement.
While the cynical amongst us may well see it as an attempt for politicians to feel better about themselves and show that they’re listening without actually doing anything about it, it focused attention on related issues such as decarbonisation of transport and improving air quality. This immediately brought it into conflict with one of the longest-running infrastructure sagas in Welsh history: whether to build an M4 bypass of Newport.
Despite being a 2016 Labour manifesto commitment, following the climate declaration it would’ve been hypocritical to give the bypass the go-ahead – so it was ditched. In doing so, it’s triggered questions over Labour’s record on major infrastructure projects. Marrying immediate economic considerations with progressive and urgent ecological ones will be one of the biggest challenges facing all of the parties in the Sixth Senedd.
Local Government reform quietly shelved – During the Fourth Senedd, this was the big topic in Welsh politics. I said not long after the 2014 Williams Commission report was published that many of its recommendations would never see the light of day and that’s precisely what’s happened.
Questions over the size and number of councils – and the wider role of local government in post-devolution Wales – are cans that have been well and truly kicked down the road. A full reorganisation has been shelved in favour of moves towards regional collaboration and voluntary mergers, while the existing governance models for city regions are already confusing and low-profile.
Headline-grabbing moves to lower the voting age to 16 in Welsh elections have camouflaged the fact that both the Senedd & Elections and Local Government & Elections Acts are fairly weak laws that don’t even go halfway to where they need to be.
Covid-19 Pandemic – The second defining moment of the Fifth Senedd alongside Brexit. I’ve said previously that this is best explored in more detail once we’re in the clear; despite the vaccination roll-out we’re still a long way away from that point.
In terms of how the pandemic has impacted Labour in Wales, politically it’s turned out to be somewhat advantageous. The profile of Welsh ministers has arguably never been higher. Also, it’s saved Mark Drakeford’s bacon. Given he’s overseen two disastrous UK-level election performances for Labour, he could well have faced a leadership challenge during 2020 had the pandemic not happened.
The pandemic has brought questions over Wales’ relationship with the UK Government and the wider Union to the fore in a way that was previously unthinkable. The reliance on tourism and the impact of second homes on rural communities is now also being discussed openly without accusations of Anglophobia. Issues like a universal basic income, regeneration priorities in town centres and remote working – which you would normally think are well and truly on Labour’s turf – are also part of the pandemic zeitgeist.
Lurking in the background are doubts about the Welsh Government’s record on health and social care, as well as their communications strategy. Some really bad decisions were made during the first wave of the pandemic in Cathays Park. Also, until Kirsty Williams (a Lib Dem) took it upon herself to teach scrutiny-averse Labour ministers “how it’s done”- in terms of communicating with the public – it verged on amateur hour. It was probably a lack of confidence, but as the months wore on, the Welsh Government by and large were up to the task and Labour would naturally stand to benefit from that. But as said, it’s not all rosy.
Key Strengths
Welsh politics is remarkably stable. There are three guarantees in life: death, taxes and Labour winning a majority of first-past-the-post seats in the Senedd. Some of their leads look shaky compared to 2016, but incumbency still counts as do local factors – which may give Labour an advantage. Wales is as much post-political as it is post-industrial.
Mark Drakeford has massively boosted his (otherwise very low) personal profile as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. He’s come across as a balanced, competent, reassuring presence during a national emergency and pretty much everything Boris Johnson isn’t. It’ll be difficult for the opposition to make up that kind of ground. As mentioned, it’s right to say he had an awful 2019 and has, politically-speaking, been the biggest “winner” (in the loosest possible terms) of the pandemic anywhere in the UK.
There’s an unusual (some might rightly say unfair) advantage in having been able to get around pandemic-related campaign restrictions by virtue of being in government. In the weeks and months before the purdah period, Welsh Government ministers regularly spoke directly to the people of Wales through public broadcasters (including what amounted to a 50 minute political broadcast on S4C) in a way which hasn’t otherwise happened since devolution; and who sticks around to hear what the opposition thinks afterwards? The image that sticks most in my mind from Prif Weinidog mewn Pandemig was Andrew RT Davies’ high-contrast face screened to an empty office.
Labour occupy the middle ground on the constitutional question. While independence and abolishing the Senedd perhaps get more air time than they warrant (compared to their respective levels of support amongst the public), the most popular option for the constitutional future of Wales has regularly been more powers devolved to Wales short of independence – which is where Labour’s MSs are by-and-large. Proposals for the future of the UK published by Jeremy Miles this term were also fairly practical. Their problem is that Labour MPs are reading from a different book and the party will be unable to deliver any constitutional changes for the foreseeable future, which will be likely to further polarise constitutional debate over the next five years if campaigners run out of patience.
Key Challenges
Labour lack charisma (and they won’t necessarily be thanked for their pandemic response). They’ve become a typically dull, robotic, technocratic, humourless establishment party. For all of the extra publicity and general (but not absolute) positive reaction to the Welsh Government’s handling of the pandemic, a lot of the time Labour are simply unlikable. Extra publicity can be a double-edged sword. There’s a lot of soft dislike for Mark Drakeford despite his increased profile, while some of the Welsh Government’s decisions during the pandemic haven’t been well-explained or well-received even if well-intentioned (the non-essentials sales ban in supermarkets comes to mind).
An election-winning machine (but not much else). Their democratic socialist credentials have been tested on several occasions in the Senedd. This includes failed votes on free school meals, teaching the history of people of colour, introducing proportional representation to local government and banning zero-hour contracts. Labour have either been found wanting, “agreeing in principle”, or believing “now’s not the time”. The party have for far too long been too eager to look for reasons not to do something. You also see some cult-like statements where it seems the party is the be-all and end-all of someone’s existence. Maybe that’s why they’re so successful – because so many people have a vested interest, directly and indirectly, in Labour remaining in power – but it could be their undoing too as it’s offputting. It’s hard to tell whether Labour believe in anything bigger than themselves.
They have a fairly poor track record in some areas and lack ambition. Decision-making is painfully slow at times, going through round after round of seemingly needless consultations and task and finish groups before being stuck in bureaucratic and legislative constipation. Ministers lean on the expertise of other people – despite often being told several times what they should do – because they’re seemingly terrified of getting things wrong and being held accountable. The Welsh Government have also missed some key performance targets fairly consistently (i.e. hospital waiting times, which are probably even worse now) and tried to move the goalposts on key targets like affordable housing.
There’s very little long-term strategic thinking because of their managerialism. Welsh Labour were caught out by the rise in right-wing populism, caught out by Brexit, caught out by the rise in support for Welsh independence (and direct-rule), caught out by the Ford engine plant closure, caught out more recently by the Aston Martin job loss announcement (that James Bond parody is looking really tone deaf now) and Liberty Steel cash problems. Labour seem to be behind the curve on anything that can’t be neatly addressed on a case-by-case basis. They consistently dampen down fires instead of putting them out, usually resorting to throwing money at problems instead of fixing the underlying root causes.
This is going to be a defensive election for Labour and it’s more about what seats they can keep rather than where they can win.
They ought to be the most concerned about seats in the north-east (Clwyd South, Wrexham, Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd). Nearly all of them went to the Tories in 2019 and while losing a few of them would likely result in Labour winning at least one list seat to compensate (due to how the additional member system works), there’s a danger that once they’re gone they’ll be difficult to take back. The “good news” is Labour have large majorities there (with the exception of Vale of Clwyd), but that could easily disappear in a low turnout.
Other key defences (for largely the same reasons) are Bridgend, Gower, Vale of Glamorgan, Cardiff North and – at a stretch, though unlikely – the two Newport seats.
Plaid Cymru will be eying up Caerphilly and Llanelli. Given how the polls have shifted, I doubt Labour will be losing any sleep over Cardiff West or Blaenau Gwent. Labour are also likely to be competitive in Aberconwy and Rhondda. Nick Ramsay’s recent decision to stand as an Independent in Monmouth may – if the Tory vote was equally split – allow Labour to come up through the middle, but that would be a stretch.
In terms of the list seats, some polls have pointed towards a possibility they could win a third list seat in Mid & West Wales (especially if they lose Llanelli).
What would be a good result?
Depending on which polls you choose to believe, it’s either heading to be Labour’s worst election since devolution or a fairly good result….which really narrows it down. It’s probably likely to lie somewhere in between.
If they can produce a result in the ballpark of 2016 (27-29 seats), that ought to be good enough. Given the ideological splits within the opposition, they should be able to run as a minority government on those numbers with occasional negotiations with Plaid Cymru (and any remaining Lib Dems or other left-leaning members elected).
Anything below 26-27 seats would certainly require a formal coalition for them to stay comfortably in power. The only realistic option in those circumstances would be Plaid Cymru, but Labour can’t offer them anything on the constitution; I don’t see Mark Drakeford ever taking the risk of holding an independence referendum in exchange for a coalition even if Wales would – as things stand – comfortably vote to stay in the Union.
