My coverage of the 2021 Senedd election ends with a look at everyone else. The “new” State of Wales will be launching/re-launching hopefully in the next couple of weeks, so the site will be down towards the end of May.
At one point it looked like the Lib Dems were going to be wiped out, but Jane Dodds just managed to get through on the Mid & West Wales regional list.
Results of Note: None; their results can be categorised as either bad or really bad.
By my count, the Lib Dems lost 36 (THIRTY-SIX) deposits in the Senedd election (constituency and regional) and an additional three Police & Crime Commissioner deposits (at five grand a pop). As a party predominantly made up by well-educated metropolitan and rural liberal types, the Lib Dems as a group are likely to be able to take the financial hit. But for the party of David Lloyd George to put in a performance like this – and in terms of their overall standing – they still somehow manage to plumb new depths. It’s gone beyond the point of amusement to genuine pity.
It was always going to be down to whether Bill Powell or Jane Dodds would win a seat. In that contest, the leader in Wales (Dodds) was given priority despite not winning a selection ballot for a constituency. As a result, she was put front and centre and Kirsty Williams still featured in their electoral literature despite standing down. The pandemic recovery was put at the forefront of their campaign but didn’t communicate the details as well as other parties and were a bit vague. They took a gamble that a good showing (but short of victory) for the Lib Dems in the mid-Wales seats will carry over the regional ballot and result in Jane Dodds’ election. It very nearly didn’t pay off.
You would have expected the Lib Dems to have done much better in Ceredigion (where they finished way behind in fourth place), Montgomery (where they finished behind Plaid Cymru in a seat they once held not that long ago) and Cardiff Central (where they had a high profile candidate in Rodney Berman). There’s nowhere you can point to and say “that’s a good result”.
What can they take from this?
They’ll be thanking their lucky stars they’re still there. The time is long overdue for them to have a serious, honest internal discussion: “What’s the point of the Lib Dems?” There’s lying to us, then there’s lying to themselves. Some very outspoken Lib Dems on social media need to wind their necks in. They are Wales’ largest minor party (though the Greens may have something to say about that) and should expect to be treated as such.
The idea they can run in every seat in Wales and stand in the Police & Crime Commissioner elections is now surely dead unless they enjoy taking the kind of hidings that are usually confined to specialist clubs. They need to make very careful strategic decisions on where to focus their resources, time and energy and might have to completely abandon some areas except at community council level. They’re still not quite out of the game in parts of Cardiff and central Wales and also have hope in the form of a seemingly youthful membership (perhaps drawn into the party by their Remainer stance), but next year’s local elections loom large.
I’m sure most of the people reading this took no pleasure at all from seeing Abolish the Assembly have their arse handed to them.
Results of Note: Blaenau Gwent (6.6% of the vote – their only retained deposit), Caerphilly (3.9% – fourth place), Brecon & Radnor (3.8% – sixth place), Wrexham (3.5% – fourth place), Vale of Glamorgan (3.3% – fourth place).
Pandemic restrictions aside, the conditions were absolutely perfect for them: a Welsh Government who really were curbing freedoms (not just what Abolish and others had cried wolf over for years) and going the extra mile to annoy the entire population; a Senedd as a whole which has been engulfed in some serious personal scandals and incidents over the last five years; a government in Westminster who would likely not give a second thought to authorising a devolution referendum if they could get away with it; a UKIP in terminal decline presenting an open goal for a new populist party; discussion of independence going mainstream and “scaring the squares”; being inexplicably given a prime time platform on BBC Wales.
They were trying to spin that they were a new party only a few months old but that was another lie; they stood in 2016 and despite the perfect conditions for them this time around managed to go backwards. They lost votes. El Risitas died for this.
The obvious conclusion to draw as to why they performed so poorly is that is the populist vote was split between multiple parties, while the out-and-out anti-devolution vote was split between themselves and UKIP. Even if Abolish and UKIP stood one anti-devolution candidate on a joint ticket, they wouldn’t have won any seats but would have at least retained thousands of pounds worth of deposits….which makes it even funnier.
On a more serious note, I feel sorry for anyone who was convinced to part with money for this if they’re on a low or fixed income. Electing Abolish MSs could never lead to the Senedd being abolished by itself. There are many perfectly good reasons to be disappointed with successive Welsh governments, but it would take a series of unlikely events to trigger a referendum to abolish the Senedd, so Abolish offer false hope that it could ever happen. It’s so extreme and ridiculous that only example in history (as far as I know) of a country voting away its own parliament and law-making powers in a referendum was Austria in 1938.
This was a grift by a group of self-serving carpetbaggers at the top who probably deep down don’t care about devolution either way and exploited anti-devolution feeling to feather their own nests and make names for themselves. They didn’t give a moment’s thought as to what would happen if they got elected. Much like a few of UKIP’s 2016 intake, they wanted to ride a bandwagon and get a big payday at Welsh taxpayers’ expense doing the least work possible. It wasn’t as if they would turn down the salary and not employ family members and friends afterwards.
Abolish took advantage of people’s frustration with politics, as well as a rose-tinted nostalgia for supposed glory days before devolution which never existed. Helped by Facebook algorithms, they’ve become a conveyer belt of misinformation (and worse), carefully targeted to feed off the anger of the same group of people over and over again, but not really having that much impact outside of it – almost like the entire party, except at the top (where the grift happens), is a support group for cloud yellers. In its own way it’s sad because many have been convinced to hate and even fear those who’ve probably done more to help them than they realise. Amidst the utter tripe they’ve been spouting over the last couple of years they’ve even sunk so low as to comment on people’s appearances (I’ve decided it’s better not to say anything at all in response to that).
Those who’ve bought into it wholeheartedly will double-down, so anyone proclaiming the death of Abolish the Assembly is being premature. Nonetheless, this is a massive setback because their access to Welsh taxpayers’ money has been cut off. They’ll almost certainly be back in 2026 and will probably contest next year’s council elections – maybe under new leadership or a new name. Also, the equivalent party in Scotland only got around 0.3% of the vote which was about 10 times lower than in Wales. Abolish weren’t a million miles away from the Greens and got a lot of fourth-place finishes – however distant.
Some of the newly-elected Tory MSs will have passed that reported “test” of their views on devolution and a whole host of other things. They’re still there in spirit.
What can they take from this?
Fuck off.
The Greens managed what was arguably their best national-level election result in Wales, but continue to need to do work in order to get within touching distance of success.
Results of Note: Monmouth (5.6% – retained deposit, fourth place), Cardiff Central (5.4% – retained deposit, fifth place), South Wales Central (5.7% – fourth place, ahead of Lib Dems and Abolish), South Wales East (4.8% – fifth place, within 50 votes of Abolish).
Although in terms of vote share the Greens achieved outcomes similar to the Lib Dems, at least they’re heading in the right direction. Although their overall proportion of constituency votes was down on 2016 that’s because they decided to run in fewer seats. Per-seat, the vote share was far more encouraging and they increased it – sometimes by up to 50% or more – in every seat they stood in. It’s still nowhere close to where they need to be but it’s a sign of progress given that they’ve never had an MS.
Maybe they were one of the beneficiaries of a reduction in the voting age. Maybe people are starting to take climate change with the seriousness it deserves and are looking for an alternative who they know understand what’s at stake.
What can they take from this?
They’re starting to get the right idea that it’s sensible to only stand on the regional lists and in a few promising constituencies. What criteria they would use to determine what a “promising constituency” is is entirely up to them, but it’s clear there are some parts of Wales that are starting to open up to the Greens as the Lib Dems decline.
Short-term, they need to win council seats next year. Cardiff is looking promising for them and again 16-and-17-year-olds will be able to vote.
Both parties were struggling to find a niche for themselves with Brexit out of the way, while UKIP’s 2016 Senedd breakthrough remains a distant national embarrassment.
Results of Note: UKIP’s results make the Lib Dems look good. It’s absolutely magnificent. Reform UK didn’t do anything of note either other than a fourth-place finish in Preseli Pembrokeshire.
UKIP and Reform UK lost every single deposit.
Reform UK has as much cause to be aggrieved by their treatment by BBC Wales as the Greens. They had a full slate of candidates, a manifesto (however thin), had members elected from Wales in their own right to the European Parliament (as the Brexit Party) and several candidates who were sitting MSs (who this time around finished last or close to last place).
There’s very little you can say. The only crumb of comfort here for both of them is that the only party that managed to get swings against them as badly as UKIP was Plaid Cymru in Cardiff West, Blaenau Gwent and Rhondda.
What can they take from this?
UKIP are dead. There’s no coming back from this and they made their bed with the lunatic fringe at that disasterous 2019 European Parliament election. When your hope and salvation is Neil Hamilton, surely you’ve gone long past the point where it’s best to just go home.
Reform UK have potential if they can convince Nigel Farage to come out of “retirement” and put serious work into ideas to reform the UK – but they’re not going to are they? Hopefully, this is the last we’ll see and hear of the 2016 UKIP intake. They got their payday and they’ll be satisfied that Brexit has been done. Was it worth it though?
Propel attracted a bit of attention immediately before and during the election campaign because they had a sitting MS. In the end, it’s hard to work out what either themselves or Gwlad achieved.
Results of Note (Propel only): Cardiff West (9.5% – fourth place, retained deposit), Dwyfor Meirionnydd (5.5% – fourth place, retained deposit).
At the start of the election it looked like Propel were offering something a bit different. A “contract” with the people of Wales – even if it’s taken directly from the Brexit Party – sounds new.
“Wales Needs Champions” is a good tagline. The problem is it lost its effectiveness and became unintentionally funny when it was said just before another three-figure number of votes and lost deposit.
Given the effort Neil McEvoy went into to try and make out Cardiff West was a two-horse race between himself and Mark Drakeford, to finish behind his former party Plaid Cymru, the Tories and more than 14,000 votes behind the First Minister is quite humbling.
Like the other minor parties, their biggest mistake was not thinking carefully about where to target resources. That said, it’s difficult to figure out where Gwlad’s vote is (probably amongst conservatives in the north west). It was a costly, inexplicable mistake for both parties to run in the Police & Crime Commissioner elections too, which are set up so it’s nearly always Labour vs Conservative (with the occasional Independent) in England and Plaid Cymru joining in here.
Every vote Propel gained (in the Senedd and PCC elections) cost them around 35p in lost deposits. For Gwlad the figure was £1.18, meaning they lost more £ than they gained votes. Gwlad also received only around 1,000 more regional list votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party got in 2016.
What can they take from this?
Yes, “that” picture made a lot of people laugh, but I do genuinely believe Propel has potential. They’re certainly on to something by focusing on issues that matter to people’s day-to-day lives instead of grand ideological posturing; it’s something Senedd politics and the Welsh political bubble has a blind spot to. Their problem is that while they perhaps have the right message, they don’t have the right messenger. They have to offer a bit more depth than a vehicle (heh) for Neil McEvoy’s personal ambitions and need to avoid becoming a Cardiff version of Llais Gwynedd. You would expect Propel to contest next year’s local elections where they could retain/pick up some seats. I don’t think they’re going anywhere unless 2022 goes sour for them.
Both parties should give serious consideration to merging, to be frank. Propel brings the presentation/branding and the only recognisable political figure (for better and for worse); Gwlad brings a bit more policy depth and might be able to rein in the populist impulse a bit. Apart from a few policy issues, there wasn’t much between the two anyway.
Results of Note (Independents): Islwyn (Kevin Etheridge, 19.3%, runner-up); Blaenau Gwent (Mandy Moore, 11.4%, fourth place); Bridgend (Steven Bletsoe – 10.8%, fourth place); Neath (Steve Hunt, 8.1%, fourth place); Pontypridd (Wayne Owen – 6.8%, fourth place); Aberavon (Scott Jones – 6.1%, fourth place).
One of the stories of the election which hasn’t been picked up that often anywhere else is how well (some, not all) Independent candidates did. Many of them achieved result-influencing shares of the vote.
Independent candidates secured more constituency votes than Abolish the Assembly and the Greens in their own right and more than UKIP, Propel and Gwlad combined. It’s a sign that in some counties, Independent groups and individuals are becoming more influential in local politics than usual. It’s less of a “lost cause” as long as there’s some sort of organisation behind it and candidates aren’t left leafleting or strategising by themselves.
Each candidate will have stood on their own set of policies and will likely be well-known locally, which can be an advantage over some parties that have no local foundation. It’ll be interesting to see how this develops, but the question to the parties who often challenge for these third/fourth place votes is how do they convince people to back them instead?
Elsewhere, the only result of note from the minor parties was Llais Gwynedd’s Glyn Daniels coming within around 50 votes of retaining his deposit in Dwyfor Meirionnydd.
The Communists saw their share of the vote increase slightly, though interestingly they “won” seats in the Children’s Commissioner shadow election for 11-15-year-olds.
The Freedom Alliance are a strange one. They came out of nowhere, clearly have some sort of professional backing or funding behind them, yet didn’t achieve very much.
