The final detailed post-election reaction looks at Plaid Cymru, who have the most to be disappointed about of the big three parties. Although it’s perhaps not quite as bad as it first appears, they shouldn’t be let so easily off the hook.
In Y Fro constituencies, it’s about as good as it gets. Arfon’s Sian Gwenllian now has the largest share of the vote of any MS (63.3%). The Plaid vote in Ynys Môn, Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is/was pretty much maxed-out anyway. There was a bit more room for expansion in Ceredigion and Arfon due to previous Lib Dem and Labour performances.
Outside of Y Fro, there were two stand-out performances: Wrexham (+8.5%) – where the candidate Carrie Harper has been doing a lot of legwork for years – and an unexpected second-place finish in Montgomery (+7.7%). Other signs of progress in possible future target seats include Preseli Pembrokeshire (+5.6%), Ogmore (+4.5%) and Pontypridd (+4%). They also did better than usual in Cardiff Central (+4.7%).
Plaid didn’t perform particularly well in any of their key target constituencies of Llanelli (-7.9%), Aberconwy (-3.8%) and Caerphilly (-1.1%). They had a marmite candidate in Llanelli in Helen Mary Jones – who wasn’t helped by the implosion of the local branch over the last few years – running against a fairly high-profile Labour minister. In Aberconwy, an inexperienced candidate was “helped” by a negative campaign. While Delyth Jewell had the best time of the three in a difficult Caerphilly campaign knowing she was guaranteed a list seat anyway, Plaid were probably well aware if she had taken Caerphilly the Conservatives would’ve likely won three list seats in the south east (and like many others, including myself, may have over-estimated the threat from Abolish).
While Plaid Cymru firmly saw off Propel’s Neil McEvoy in Cardiff West it came at a price (-15.8%). Plaid didn’t do well in some of their previous “potential growth” seats either like Neath, Cynon Valley and Aberavon.
All of this is before mentioning the two terrible results: Rhondda (-19.3%) and while a big drop in the Plaid vote in Blaenau Gwent was expected I don’t think anyone expected that (-19.8%).
The other noticeable thing is how poorly Plaid did on the regional lists. Given the effort they put in to try and get list votes from Labour supporters, it’s embarrassing to have fallen back in South Wales Central (-2.7%) and South Wales East (-0.6%). Just to prove why every vote can count, Carrie Harper missed out on being elected to the North Wales list by around 21-22 votes. Winning 14 seats may have changed the narrative around Plaid’s election results a bit (though perhaps not by much given the ramping beforehand).
