(Title Image: ITV Wales)
They achieved their best-ever Senedd election result, but somehow the Conservatives in Wales have managed to come out of this having not moved forward as much as they would have liked.
On the surface of it, and much like Labour, it’s mainly good news.
Brecon and Radnorshire is perhaps the only result you can point to as meeting pre-election expectations (+14.3%). James Evans’ task was made easier given a popular incumbent had stood down and the Lib Dems took a gamble on ensuring their leader in Wales would win a list seat in a gamble that very nearly didn’t pay off.
Other stand-out results include Newport East (+13.2%), Alyn & Deeside (+10.9%) and comfortably seeing off a challenge from Plaid Cymru in Aberconwy (+7%). There were two strong performances on the Mid & West Wales (+6.2%) and North Wales (+7.7%) regional lists too.
While the Tories broadly increased their vote share by an average of least 5-7% in most constituencies, Labour often managed to move ahead by a similar amount, meaning the Tories struggled to make up ground despite increasing their vote share. The Conservatives were perhaps expecting most of the 2016 UKIP vote to go to them for delivering Brexit, but maybe only half of it did with most of the rest going back to Labour.
Some constituency performances were underwhelming including Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (+0.1%), Wrexham (+0.8%) and Bridgend (+3.9%). They seemed to under-perform – by and large – where they already held the seat (with a few exceptions like Aberconwy and Montgomery).
Two constituencies produced disappointing results: Cardiff North (-3.6%) and Vale of Glamorgan (-0.8%). Cardiff hasn’t been kind to the Tories in the last few years and their councillors must be concerned going into next year’s local elections facing a buoyant Labour.
