(Title Image: ITV Wales)
They achieved their best-ever Senedd election result, but somehow the Conservatives in Wales have managed to come out of this having not moved forward as much as they would have liked.
They got a bounce, even in “no-go areas” for the Tories – While Mark Drakeford and Labour got a bounce for their handling of the pandemic, amongst the few things Boris Johnson and the UK Government have got right was taking a punt on securing vaccine supplies as early as possible, as well as specific policies like the furlough scheme. So the Conservatives should have expected a bounce too (including a bounce from returning UKIP voters) and arguably got one.
It might not have necessarily translated into seats (particularly constituencies), but it certainly might have played a big part in their extra list gains.
There are several constituencies where – should the Labour vote fall back in the future and Plaid fail to make up ground (for whatever reason) – the Conservatives might be sniffing around when they otherwise wouldn’t have been expected to: Alyn & Deeside, Newport East, Newport West, Pontypridd, Torfaen.
A pushback against independence? – The Unionist and devosceptic vote likely solidified behind the Conservatives at the expense of the smaller right-wing parties; though no doubt some Tory voters might have given Abolish, UKIP and Reform UK their vote on the lists.
It does appear as though Tory voters did turn out to vote. Maybe not in the same numbers as they would in a UK General Election, but postal votes in some constituencies like Aberconwy apparently went very heavily in the Conservative’s favour.
Maybe the rapid growth of YesCymru and cheeky media framing of this election as being about independence gave “British Wales” enough of a scare to rally behind a British nationalist party. I doubt many of them could take Abolish seriously, though it’s clear many people voted on more than the constitution. For once this didn’t seem to be treated as a Westminster mid-term and Welsh issues were at the forefront.
“Sleaze? What sleaze?” – Recent revelations/headlines about Boris Johnson’s interior decoration choices – and the sort of disregard for human life that you would expect from a black metal band – didn’t make any difference to the Conservatives. It only would have in those places where the Labour vote stood still or went backwards.
The UK is starting to develop a political culture like Italy and France where politicians are expected to be bent. People shrug their shoulders when scandals emerge. Men (it’s almost always men) who cultivate a populist persona for themselves are usually given a lifetime pass for “being naughty”, or can even spin being caught out as an establishment witch-hunt or an obsession of an out of touch media and political bubble.
