(Title Image: ITV Wales)
They achieved their best-ever Senedd election result, but somehow the Conservatives in Wales have managed to come out of this having not moved forward as much as they would have liked.
It’s strange to describe the Conservative’s best performance in a Senedd election as a pyrrhic victory but it certainly comes across like that.
They didn’t make a dent into Labour where it mattered the most (constituencies) to build momentum on 2019. They did well where they were perhaps hoping Abolish the Assembly would do well at Plaid Cymru’s expense (the lists). They come out of it with more seats overall but can’t do the most impactful thing they could do in opposition – stop electoral reform/expansion of the Senedd – because they can’t block a supermajority.
It’s a struggle to work out what they’ll be able to achieve in Cardiff Bay for the next five years.
During the election results coverage, some of the talking heads suggested Andrew RT Davies’ leadership might be in question, but I don’t see why it would be. Indeed, he didn’t have the best of campaigns personally but he can at least point to the results as clear progress.
The focus will have to turn from criticism of the Welsh Government’s pandemic handling (which has clearly been given a thumbs up by those who voted) to the recovery. I don’t think there would be any harm in talking up the good things the UK Government has done in tandem with the Welsh Government rather than in opposition to them.
They may well find that the other parties in the Senedd don’t trust them anymore given the views some of their candidates have made quite clear on devolution and their low regard for the Senedd’s work. The days of a Nick Bourne/David Melding/Suzy Davies consensus-building conservatism are probably over for now.
That might be good in terms of holding the government to account instead of continuing with the chummy Bay Bubble atmosphere of the pre-Brexit days, but I suspect most members who’ve sat through the last five years will be hoping for a quieter five years. If anyone is going to kick up a stink or continue with the nonsense we saw in the previous term, it’ll likely come from the Tory benches.
They’ve lost some of their most naturally gifted MSs – presumably voluntarily, but perhaps some of them walked before they were pushed due to the internal shift towards devoscepticism. There’s been a big turnover and while some of the new faces have political or back office experience, it’s very different to being in the chamber. It could take a while for some of them to get up to speed.
They still have the Union to fight for but have to be far more intelligent going about it. They don’t have to convince “British Wales” that the Union is worth it. Actually, it’s those who voted Labour and the 20% or so Plaid Cymru voters who don’t support independence.
Given what they’ve been coming out with for the last few years, it’s ironic to suggest this, but fully embracing federalism would make far more sense than trying to argue for devolution to be rolled back or abolished (a position that’s been dealt a far, far bigger blow at this election than independence has).
