It’s an understatement to say that sections of society have trust issues with the police at the moment. It’s impossible to “police by consent” if members of the public are afraid of and/or can’t rely on the police to keep them safe.
Given that we know what some of the issues are with policing (Part Vb), how could Wales reform the police to address these challenges?
This part looks at recruitment, training, powers and personnel. The final part of this mini-series (Part VIII) – probably more important than this one – will look at how to hold the police to account.
If we want to maintain police services as they currently are then we know we would need something in the region of £780-790million a year (at 2021 prices) across the whole of Wales.
As set out in Part Va, there are three main sources of police funding: direct government grants, redistribution of business rates and the police precept.
The precept and business rates are already levied in Wales, while – regardless of whether Wales is independent or policing is devolved – the Welsh Government would have to provide the direct grant funding which currently comes from the UK Home Office.
Finding the money
The current tripartite model (central government grant, business rates, precept) – This best suits the current territorial police force model (Option 1 in Part VI). If there was an all-Wales police force (Option 2 in Part VI) then you would probably expect a single national precept to be set which may mean a reduction in the precept for some parts of Wales and an increase in others.
- Central government funding-only – While this would lower council tax and business rate bills, it would almost certainly require income tax increases to cover it. Based on Welsh Centre for Public Policy figures3 that every 1% increase in income tax raises £218million across all tax bands, then it would probably have to increase by at least 2.3% to cover the shortfall4 and even further to 3.6% to cover the total cost of policing.
- Business rates and precept-only – Based on current spending, if policing was funded solely this way, then it would leave a £265million gap. The council tax precept would have to increase quite significantly (probably double) to cover the loss of central government grant funding.
- New local taxes – This could include a portion of funding from a land value tax, local income tax, local sales tax, perhaps a portion from road pricing or a mix of all of them combined with a lower council tax precept. Under a model where there were municipal police forces, those forces could be funded out of council tax (or an equivalent).
Distributing the money
At the moment, policing funding – particularly the central government grant and the redistribution of business rates – is determined by an allocation formula that takes into account different factors such as the demographics of the force area, population density, crime rates (and their seriousness), social characteristics and road accidents (amongst other things).
Based on a series of international comparisons5 the option on the table may include:
- Demographic-led formula (current method) – funding based on demographic, socio-economic and crime data.
- Resource-led formula – funding based on relative workload/”man-years”.
- Basic funding + top-ups – all forces get a similar “floor” amount of money per officer, topped up by additional funding based on relative workload, demographic data and performance.
The other big financial issue is pensions. Whether policing is devolved or Wales becomes independent there would need to be a bespoke police pensions scheme (as is the case in Scotland). As it’s a public pension scheme, existing recipients would likely continue to receive their pension, while new entrants would end up on a Welsh police pension scheme.
Public pensions are a much broader general topic. Wales could set up a distinct police pension, create a general public sector pensions agency (as in Scotland), or negotiate an alternative arrangement. That alternative could be something like merging police pensions into the Welsh local government pension funds (police pensions are already administered by them).
3. – Welsh Centre for Public Policy, (July 2018). The Welsh Tax Base – Risks & Opportunities after fiscal devolution. Available here: https://www.wcpp.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/The-Welsh-Tax-Base-_WCPP-Final-180627.pdf
4. – Welsh Government business rates redistribution (£143million in 2021-22) and council tax precepts (£360million in 2021-22), totalling £506million.
5. – UK Home Office, (July 2015). Consultation on reform of police funding arrangements in England and Wales (Annex D). Available at:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447083/2015_07_20_Police_funding_consultation_doc.pdf
