Following last week’s local elections, here’s a more detailed look at what happened nationally and what each of the parties/groups can take from the results.
There’s still a result from a two-member ward missing due to a postponement, but even if Labour won both seats it wouldn’t change the overall outcome in Neath Port Talbot.
Things largely played out as people expected. There weren’t too many shocks. You could argue that the main parties and Independents (as a whole) can come away from this feeling relatively pleased with the outcome….except the Tories.
There’s always an eagerness on the part of the UK media to try and get some sort of “What does this mean for the next General Election?” angle on what are essentially 22 separate elections. Other than contributing to the overall poor performance by the Conservatives, there’s very little to read into it.
The other main things to note – which I’ll look at in a bit more detail later – include: Labour building on their majorities in the south and being in a position to run several more councils; Plaid Cymru performing strongly in Y Fro Gymraeg; Lib Dem comebacks in Powys and Swansea; the long-awaited electoral breakthrough for the Greens.
Potential Coalition Options
- Conwy – It looks like it would have to be the Independents + someone else. You would expect the existing Independent-Conservative coalition to continue but it depends on which Independents won what.
- Denbighshire – It looks as though it’ll be a Labour-led coalition, probably with Independents, possibly with Plaid Cymru and/or the Greens.
- Flintshire – Labour or Independents would need to do some sort of deal with the Lib Dems. Labour could continue with a minority administration depending on the make-up of the Independents and their different groups.
- Merthyr Tydfil – Labour + one of the Independent groups, though a Labour minority administration is a possible option.
- Monmouthshire – Labour only just fell short of a majority, but the only coalition option is with the Independents and/or the new Green councillor. A minority administration appears likely.
- Neath Port Talbot – There are a few options: a Labour minority administration, a rainbow coalition between Independents, Plaid, the Lib Dems and Greens or Labour + another (realistically only Plaid Cymru based on the numbers.).
- Pembrokeshire – Probably another non-aligned Independent-led coalition, likely with Labour.
- Powys – The Lib Dems are in a position to lead a coalition, probably with Independents and/or Labour or Plaid Cymru. It doesn’t seem like an Independent-Conservative coalition would be viable.
- Vale of Glamorgan – You would expect the Labour-Independent coalition to continue unless Labour decides to work with another party (Plaid Cymru).
- Wrexham – You would expect the Independent-Conservative coalition to continue unless the Independents decide to work with another party (Labour or Plaid Cymru).
