The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales – the latest installment in the Welsh Constitutional Universe franchise – recently published its final report (Cymraeg – pdf; English – pdf).
There’s also an easy-to-read version (Cymraeg – pdf; English – pdf).
The Commission was a 2021 Labour Senedd election manifesto commitment and was taken forward under the co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru. The entire exercise cost just over £1.5million.
The Commission was tasked with considering options for strengthening Welsh democracy and devolution, as well as options for Wales’ long-term constitutional future.
This was going to be a piece about post-politics in Wales – why we don’t “do” politics anymore. Ironically, I couldn’t be bothered. That’ll be touched on in a separate mini-series on independence and democracy starting in March.
As a primer to that, this piece looks at the Commission’s findings and the chances of anything being delivered (lol).
Under this option, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would become self-governing on an equal basis, with powers set out in a written constitution. The UK would remain a single nation-state, with the UK Government and Parliament being responsible for everything not already run by the four nations (i.e. foreign policy, defence).
The Commission didn’t make any recommendations on federalism.
What were the key findings?
- There was “strong support” for federalism amongst some witnesses, but it was the least attractive option overall. Support for federalism at citizens’ panels actually fell (by more than half) at the end of discussions compared to the start.
- There was no consensus on how a federal UK would work, though there was clear support for England remaining a single territorial unit in the event of federalisation. It was also assumed there would be a reformed UK House of Lords/second chamber.
- Federalism would require reforms to how the UK nations are funded.
- It’s also likely to result in Wales having more tax and spending powers. This could, however, result in a “tax flight” if Wales set higher taxes than England.
- Wales’ powers would be better protected with federalism and a written constitution than under devolution because it would be more “permanent” and difficult to change.
- Establishing a federal UK would require goodwill and good faith by all parts of the UK, meaning a “shift in political culture and thinking”.
What are the chances of delivery going forward?
Until the English question – its size relative to the other nations – has an appropriate and workable solution, there’s no chance of federalism functioning in the UK.
So anyone interested in a federal UK needs to focus their efforts in England. Not Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. We’re not the ones who need convincing or have the most to gain or lose by it.
Verdict
I feel the cold hand of the Lib Dems on this one. It’s keeping something alive that only select groups are enthusiastic about and to the rest of us would’ve seemed like a good idea in the 1970s.
So pushing federalism in 2024 is a bit like doing “The Hustle” in flares and medallions. Everyone else looks on with a mix of amusement, quiet respect at the effort but a certain amount of pity. “I don’t know what you’re talking about! Disco’s not dead!”
