The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales – the latest installment in the Welsh Constitutional Universe franchise – recently published its final report (Cymraeg – pdf; English – pdf).
There’s also an easy-to-read version (Cymraeg – pdf; English – pdf).
The Commission was a 2021 Labour Senedd election manifesto commitment and was taken forward under the co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru. The entire exercise cost just over £1.5million.
The Commission was tasked with considering options for strengthening Welsh democracy and devolution, as well as options for Wales’ long-term constitutional future.
This was going to be a piece about post-politics in Wales – why we don’t “do” politics anymore. Ironically, I couldn’t be bothered. That’ll be touched on in a separate mini-series on independence and democracy starting in March.
As a primer to that, this piece looks at the Commission’s findings and the chances of anything being delivered (lol).
Under this option, Wales would become a nation-state, with full responsibility for everything. While it provides Wales with the greatest level of control, it’s also the most uncertain/risky option and would present big short-to-medium-term challenges (i.e. the economy, nation-building).
The Commission didn’t make any recommendations on independence.
What were the key findings?
- Support for independence has increased compared to previous commissions/conventions, but it remains a minority view. There was no change to opinions on independence amongst citizens’ panel members following their discussions, meaning independence was a consistently more popular option than federalism (though nowhere near as popular as enhanced devolution).
- Independence would give citizens in Wales full control over all decisions affecting them; whether we would want to share powers or decision-making with other countries would be up to us.
- Independence would present an opportunity to shape equality and inclusion rules to suit our own needs. However, it would also raise questions around citizenship and changes to things people now take for granted (i.e. dual-nationals, “Who is Welsh?”, borders).
- Independence would almost certainly require negotiation beforehand; a “universal declaration” (UDI) would make it difficult for Wales to secure international recognition.
- An independent Wales would have to establish state institutions and structures from scratch, which comes at a cost. There’s also the question of what would happen to, and replace, UK Government institutions and agencies headquartered in Wales (i.e. DVLA, Companies House). There would be an opportunity to streamline and simplify how the country is run to suit our own needs though.
- An independent Wales would have far more certainty and stability in what it can or can’t do than either devolution or federalism – though it would be dependent on the public finances situation and our international standing.
- An independent Wales would likely spend more than it brings in through taxes (“fiscal deficit”) – though there’s disagreement on the exact figure as it would be partially dependent on independence negotiations.
What are the chances of delivery going forward?
Ask Plaid Cymru. See also: Five Steps to Independence. There’s no point adding to it.
Verdict
Contrary to some of the reporting and commentary on this, the conclusion was that “all options are viable” – not just independence.
Independence is always “viable”. It’s all the other stuff that determines whether it would work.
Think of it like moving house. You can move house at any time. It’s “viable”. Whether it would work or not depends on the deposits, agents, removal firm, conveyancing, surveys, mortgage/rent payments, insurance and the neighbourhood.
