In 2019 – not long after the first AUOB Cymru march in Cardiff – I wrote “Five Steps to Independence”. It went through the key milestones the independence movement should be expected to hit to get from where we are now to where we want to be.
In this update, it’ll look again at where the Welsh independence movement is, what it’ll take to get to move to the next steps and how long each step could be expected to take.
Key Goals
- Establish and sustain a grassroots/citizen-led pro-independence campaign.
- Give the independence movement a presence in civic society.
- Set out, promote and publicise both the emotional (heart) and practical (mind) arguments in favour of independence.
- Successfully move the Overton Window (the zone in which political policies are considered mainstream) so that independence is considered a realistic and credible option for Wales.
Historic Parallels
- Scotland: Common Weal (pro-independence think tank), All Under One Banner (AUOB), Labour for Independence (ginger group), Women for Independence, Business for Scotland, pro-independence alternative media.
- Ireland (pre-partition): Home Government Association/Home Rule League, Repeal Association, Irish Republican Brotherhood, The Nation (newspaper).
- Wales: YesCymru, AUOB Cymru, Undod, Labour for IndyWales (ginger group), pro-independence alternative media.
- Catalonia: Assemblea Nacional Catalana, Omnium Cultural (cultural pressure group), Catalan Way (mass demonstrations).
- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania: Popular Front of Estonia, Latvian People’s Front, Latvian National Independence Movement, Lithuanian Liberty League, Baltic Way (mass demonstrations).
What progress has Wales made?
We only seriously started this journey following the first AUOB independence march in May 2019, which proved (to a limited extent) that people are serious about independence.
All of the necessary precursors needed to enable Step 1 to happen – devolution, formation of YesCymru, publication of Independence in Your Pocket and major constitutional issues (Brexit, UK Government chaos) – are there. Independence was also considered by the Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales.
With support for independence now being regularly recorded in the mid-30s after don’t knows are removed (it was single figures not that long ago), it’s reasonable to assume the Overton Window has moved to a degree.
As for how much it’s moved, it’s probably that Welsh independence is now considered something in between “radical” and “acceptable” as of 2023 rather than outright “unthinkable”. However, independence is almost certainly less likely to be considered “popular” or “sensible” compared to federalism or extra devolved powers.
What needs more work in Wales?
The “Head” Argument: The independence movement is making strides in terms of winning hearts, but “heart” arguments are fleeting and there’s a reluctance to deal with the “head”.
What I’ve often found is that things that seem simple become far more complicated once you sit down and try to work them out. Even the work here at State of Wales is no substitute for the resources and expertise available to political parties, academic departments or the civil service.
So the first hurdle is developing a clear “head” argument for independence, with watertight arguments drafted and backed up by people who know what they’re talking about.
For the sake of offering an example, “Wales wouldn’t spend as much on defence as the UK” is a good Twitter soundbite. It’s also a shallow statement that would be easily picked apart if you don’t have snappy answers to everything else.
For a start: military organisation, personnel and materiel requirements, how a Welsh defence policy would sit with a Welsh foreign policy (so you have to consider foreign policy before considering defence), accompanying issues like national security and intelligence gathering/sharing, as well as our obligations under international law.
There are plenty of opportunities to do things differently in a way that would put Wales on a stronger footing than we currently have within the UK. We need to hear more about that, less about flags and….
Grievance politics – it’s time to grow up: The idea that Wales is always hard done by is an easy stance to take but it’s lazy, sometimes embarrassing – being pursued with all the righteous indignation of a stroppy teenager.
Anger and resentment are powerful emotions (and tools if you’re a politician) but leave you open to believing the wrong things because of your own biases (some of the stuff around the economics of water, for example). You’re angry about it and want an easy answer: “Westminster bad!” The UK Government and Parliament are shit, have always been shit and always will be shit – but that’s more down to negligence, adherence to tradition and conventions over common sense, and overconfidence in their own abilities, than some sort of plot against Wales.
More often than not, the people who moan the most (and the politicians and parties pursuing that kind of populism) offer the fewest solutions. It’s there to get you to react and nothing else. Independence or further devolution – without a workable way forward – could end up making some of these issues worse. Media outlets, political parties and movements that foster this “politics of grrrrr” are rarely rewarded for it in the long run. Perhaps I’m in the minority, but it gets boring very quickly.
Presence: The good news is that issues around governance and comms within YesCymru have been sorted (edit: lol). Things seem more stable and professional than they were during the “wobble” of 2021-22 (edit: lol).
As for the bad news, the IndyWales movement has definitely hit a ceiling. While polling shows a medium-term trend upwards towards “yes” for independence, pro-independence polling has averaged between 29-31% (with don’t knows removed) for at least four years.
We know about longstanding weaknesses in what passes as a Welsh media. The independence movement’s over-reliance on social media up until this point has become a hindrance since algorithm and policy changes.
The AUOB Cymru marches have been vital in providing a visual demonstration of support for independence – so in that respect, it’s been a game-changer.
Once the marches have passed by, you’ll be lucky to see independence mentioned outside online echo chambers – often preaching to the converted – or the occasional small YesCymru event.
It’s good that people get a sense that they’re “doing something” – no matter how small – but there has to be a payoff and you can only get so far with flags and marches.
