In 2019 – not long after the first AUOB Cymru march in Cardiff – I wrote “Five Steps to Independence”. It went through the key milestones the independence movement should be expected to hit to get from where we are now to where we want to be.
In this update, it’ll look again at where the Welsh independence movement is, what it’ll take to get to move to the next steps and how long each step could be expected to take.
Key Goals
- Ratify a binding text/treaty (if applicable) for secession.
- Ensure any new government departments and public agencies are up and running.
- Begin a gradual process of transferring sovereign powers in non-devolved areas from the UK/England to Wales.
- Set a definitive date for Welsh independence (“Independence Day”).
- Establish a Constitutional Convention (or any other agreed method) to draft a permanent constitution for Wales (see more in the series “A Welsh Constitution“).
Historic Parallels
- Ireland: UK Parliament (14th December 1921) and Dáil Eireann (14th January 1922) votes to approve/ratify the Anglo-Irish Treaty; Irish Civil War (1922-23); registration of the treaty with the League of Nations (1924).
- Montenegro: 4 days between the independence referendum “yes” vote and a parliamentary declaration of independence.
- Czech Republic & Slovakia: 36 days between the passing of the Constitution Act and the agreed independence date.
- Norway: 33 days between the end of post-referendum negotiations and the formal recognition of Norwegian independence by Sweden (1905).
- Iceland: 25 days between the independence referendum “yes” vote and the formal recognition of Icelandic independence by Denmark (1944).
When could this realistically happen?
It’s dependent on how long the negotiation stage takes.
Based on Ireland’s example, any final agreement is likely to be drafted as a treaty, with an agreed date for its provisions to come into force (“Independence Day”).
You would assume both the English Parliament and Senedd would have to pass majority votes in favour. If negotiations are successful with no outstanding issues, this ought to be a formality.
What are the other things to consider?
The need for a “buffer period”: For want of comparison, the buffer period between the final agreement on Brexit and the UK leaving the EU was around four months. You would expect something similar (anything between 3-12 months) in the case of Wales leaving the UK.
During this transition period, Wales would be de facto independent – though powers could be sensibly transferred in phases rather than in one go. It would ensure all formal arrangements for independence (establishing new government departments, public information campaigns, cross-border arrangements etc.) are in place well ahead of time and with the appropriate budgets.
“The real work starts”: Getting to the point of independence is only half the battle. Our toolbox will finally be full (or nearly full), but we’ll be on our own.
It’s unlikely an independent Wales would have a fully operational military (one capable of full overseas deployment) for perhaps up to a decade – that’s if we decide we want a traditional military in the first place.
We would have to set up embassies, consulates and high commissions. On paper, it’s straightforward enough but as a relative newcomer on the international scene, we would be best placed to watch and observe first before diving in.
Then there are all the long-term issues: in-work poverty, under-employment, demographic pressures, the health service, the transport network and (if not resolved beforehand) any outstanding fiscal issues and constitutional issues like republicanism. Issues regarding currency and the need for a Welsh central bank, for example, would likely have been long resolved by this point (or you would hope so).
Adapting: I covered this in more detail in the “After the UK” series, particularly The Impact of the End of the Union.
It’ll be the little things you notice first: no union flags; no BBC (possibly); you won’t be hearing/reading very much in the news (if a Welsh media still exists) about the UK Parliament; there’ll be talk about Welsh aid to troubled international hotspots, Welsh Olympic teams and Welsh immigration policies – amongst other things.
Independence could be genuinely scary for some people so nationalists would be wrong to write those feelings off. That’s why “losers’ consent” is important.
As for what happens after that, it’ll depend on who you vote for. There might be new parties or (more likely) we continue to have the trifecta of Labour, Conservatives and Plaid.
