In 2019 – not long after the first AUOB Cymru march in Cardiff – I wrote “Five Steps to Independence”. It went through the key milestones the independence movement should be expected to hit to get from where we are now to where we want to be.
In this update, it’ll look again at where the Welsh independence movement is, what it’ll take to get to move to the next steps and how long each step could be expected to take.
Key Goals
- Agree on the final terms of Wales’ secession, including apportionment and transfer of moveable assets.
- Settle outstanding financial issues (i.e. apportionment of debt, financial regulation, monetary policy issues such as currency).
- Negotiate (where applicable) joint working arrangements regarding cross-border, trade or other economic issues (i.e. National Grid, defence, national security, policing).
- Draft an interim written constitution for Wales (optional) and/or lay the groundwork for a constitutional convention (also optional).
- Begin preparatory work for transition.
Historic Parallels
- Ireland: Anglo-Irish Treaty 1921.
- Australia: 1926 Imperial Conference/Balfour declaration; Statute of Westminster 1931; Australia Act 1986.
- Canada: 1926 Imperial Conference/Balfour declaration; Statute of Westminster 1931; Canada Act 1982.
- Czech Republic & Slovakia: Inter-governmental conference 1992; Constitution Acts 541 & 542.
- United States: Treaty of Paris 1783.
- Norway: Karlstad Conference 1905.
- Belgium: Treaty of London 1839.
When could this realistically happen?
The day immediately following a “yes” vote to independence in a referendum or equivalent. As for when that will happen in Wales, your guess is as good as mine.
Before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the Scottish Government’s white paper “Scotland’s Future” anticipated the negotiating period would last up to two years.
If you want a contrast, it took around 18 months for the UK Government to agree a withdrawal agreement with the European Union before Brexit (March 2017 – October 2019).
Whether independence negotiations would be more or less complicated than Brexit is up for debate.
As Wales shares the common law system with England all existing laws would continue to apply in Wales after independence. A lot of the Brexit negotiations were taken up by discussions over EU rules and laws as well as the status of Northern Ireland. Nothing like that would necessarily happen with Wales which points to independence negotiations being “easier” in terms of laws and bureaucracy.
So criminal and civil laws would continue to apply (under the principle of a common law system), secondary legislation would continue to apply, and regulatory systems would still apply. Responsibility for enforcement would shift (in many, but not all, cases as some are already devolved) from London to Cardiff.
The more complicated issues would involve non-devolved policy areas.
The negotiation period would address material concerns including issues around currency, apportionment of national debt, cross-border issues, water, energy, public and state pensions, the civil service and negotiating a fair and proportionate share of movable and immovable UK assets (i.e. military equipment, foreign currency reserves if applicable, overseas properties).
The UK isn’t a signatory to the Vienna Convention on Succession of States (pdf), but it would likely form the legal starting point for how assets would be divided.
England would almost certainly be/seek to be the successor state to the UK and would likely retain the UK’s seat at the UN (including the UN Security Council), would probably be the “parent state” for the UK’s overseas territories and would retain the UK’s nuclear weapons.
What are the other things to consider?
How to approach independence negotiations: The first step would be to separate issues that require deeper negotiation from those that would be mutually agreed upon fairly easily.
The “Internal Market”, water and energy would be something we would probably want deep discussions on from a Welsh perspective. Meanwhile, the UK/English would certainly want similar discussions on things like national security, debt and state pension liabilities.
Some issues might be sorted out fairly quickly – the Common Travel Area addresses most (but not all) cross-border movement issues – while you would assume the EU withdrawal agreement would apply to Wales in terms of ongoing trade with EU member states (whether we would want to change that would be up to us).
General responsibility for negotiations could be overseen by a senior cross-party negotiating team (led by the Welsh First Minister). Cross-party sub-committees – including experts from academia and civil society – could focus on detailed line-by-line negotiations in specific areas. They would provide regular updates.
It wouldn’t be a good idea to set any hard deadline for negotiations to be concluded (a rough one is fine) or any “red lines”. Precisely when Wales becomes independent depends on how long negotiations take.
The Day Job: While all this stuff is going on in the background, it must remain business as usual elsewhere: local government, NHS, schools and the wider economy.
The risk is a “yes vote” in a referendum (or alike) would cause uncertainty, even panic, amongst those individuals and organisations that backed the Union. Meanwhile, independence supporters might get ahead of themselves and over-excited.
One solution would be to form a National Government to maintain “business as usual”. No controversial legislation would be introduced and the Senedd’s committees can focus on relevant inquiries concerning independence (much like Brexit).
“Losers’ Consent”: A key lesson the UK Government didn’t learn from Brexit but we in Wales certainly did when it came to devolution in 1997.
There would need to be a place for the “losing side”/Unionists. Their views would need to be taken into account when negotiating independence and preparing for transition. In the same way key figures in the “No” campaign in 1997 helped lay the ground rules for what would become the Senedd.
That would result in some concessions without undermining the principle of independence itself.
Examples might include Wales becoming a Commonwealth Realm (monarch as head of state, but with Welsh control over things like the Crown Estate), possibly retaining the pound as currency and maintaining some traditionally “British” ceremonial and cultural traditions (i.e. flying the Union flag on certain events like Remembrance Day, maintaining some aspects of the BBC).
