In 2019 – not long after the first AUOB Cymru march in Cardiff – I wrote “Five Steps to Independence”. It went through the key milestones the independence movement should be expected to hit to get from where we are now to where we want to be.
In this update, it’ll look again at where the Welsh independence movement is, what it’ll take to get to move to the next steps and how long each step could be expected to take.
Key Goals
- Secure the necessary constitutional powers to hold an independence referendum (a Section 109 Order under the Government of Wales Act 2006).
- Approve an Independence Referendum Act.
- Either: Secure majority support from the electorate for independence in the referendum.
- Or: An internationally recognised declaration of independence under the UN principle of self-determination (very difficult if not impossible).
Historic Parallels
- Scotland: Edinburgh Agreement; 2014 independence referendum (unsuccessful).
- Ireland (pre-partition): UK General Election 2018; Declaration of Independence 1919 (unrecognised).
- Norway: 1905 independence referendum (successful).
- Iceland: 1944 independence referendum (successful).
- Catalonia: 2017 independence referendum (unconstitutional/unrecognised).
- Slovakia: Declaration of Independence 1992.
- Estonia: Declaration of Sovereignty 1988; Declaration of Independence 1991.
- Lithuania: Declaration of Independence 1990.
- Latvia: Declaration of Independence 1990.
- Montenegro: 2006 independence referendum (successful).
When could this realistically happen?
Based on what happened in Scotland, you would only expect Wales to reach this stage in the second term of a pro-independence government. So the earliest this could realistically happen is 2030-2034.
That’s assuming the Senedd electoral reforms are passed and we go back to four-year terms, as well as Plaid Cymru forming successive Welsh governments following the 2026 and 2030 elections. Stop laughing.
What are the other things to consider?
The “legality” of independence: Self-determination is recognised in international law. However, there’s no agreement on whether that extends to independence – as opposed to other forms of self-government or even identifying as a distinct nationality.
Under the 1975 Helsinki Accords, there’s no contradiction between protecting the territorial integrity of a nation-state (in our case the UK) and the principle of self-determination. This means there’s no automatic right to independence, but it’s generally accepted that a nation-state only exists with the consent of its citizens.
Referendum vs declaration: For a constitutional change this big, there are two choices.
The first is a electing a pro-independence majority in the Senedd and they just declare independence because they have a mandate to do so from the electorate. While that would avoid the hassle of a referendum and the messiness that comes with it, it’s unlikely to be accepted by either the UK Government or the international community (who would be worried that it would set a precedent for other stateless nations).
That avenue should only be considered under a limited number of extreme conditions. That includes (but isn’t limited to): active repression of Wales/Welsh people by the British Government, abolishing the Senedd without consent, or more worrying developments such as the election of an extremist UK Government (though most definitions of “extremist” will vary).
Independence can happen peacefully without a referendum (i.e. the Velvet Divorce of Czechoslovakia). Nevertheless, the realistic option is a legal referendum under a Section 109 order, because a constitutional change this big would need the consent of the majority of voters; some may even argue a super-majority.
It would also be impossible for the international community to deny independence or formal recognition if a yes vote was secured under UK constitutional law.
The timescales: Based on Scotland’s example, the time between requesting the necessary powers to holding an independence referendum would likely be at least 18 months with a 16-week regulated period of campaigning. There would be campaign spending limits and organisations would have to register as official campaign groups.
By the point upon which a referendum can take place, the big questions should have been answered by the civil service, economists and other legal and constitutional experts. We should all have a very clear idea of what independence should look like, the potential positive and negative impacts of independence and all other types of contingency planning that would be put in place for negotiations and transition.
