The Political Machine: IndyWales & Elections

The third part of this series on democracy and independence looks at one of the more important elements: elections and voting. [jnews_block_22 number_post="3" include_post="14316,14343,14395"] What electoral reforms have already been introduced in Wales? [caption id="attachment_14375" align="aligncenter" width="948"] <img class="size-full wp-image-14375" src="https://stateofwales-com.stacktemp.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/welsh-electoral-reforms-as-of-2024.jpg" alt="A list of present and future electoral reforms in Wales. These include votes at 16, changes to the Senedd's electoral system, the option for local government to adopt STV and the proposed introduction of candidate gender quotas for Senedd elections." width="948" height="1272" /> Click to enlarge, best viewed in a new tab/window.[/caption] It's safe to assume all of these would carry over after independence. So in most respects, the electoral environment is likely to be unchanged. The remaining points of focus are likely to be: The voting system – whether the closed-list system at Senedd level (from 2026) is durable, and whether all tiers of government (community, council, Senedd) should have the same voting system. The role of the Electoral Commission (or a successor agency post-independence). How elections are run: the role of local government, how votes are counted and the timing of counts. How, when and where a person votes. How elections are conducted and how voters are informed about parties ( Part II ) and candidates. Voting Systems: Which one's the best? Firstly, it's worth looking at what the rest of Europe's democracies do: [caption id="attachment_14376" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] <img class="size-full wp-image-14376" src="https://stateofwales-com.stacktemp.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/electoral-systems-europe-map.jpg" alt="A map of Europe showing the voting method for national parliaments. The voting methods are: first-past-the-post, two-round system, closed list PR, the mixed member system, open list PR, single transferable vote and Greece which uses a unique system." width="1600" height="1121" /> Click to enlarge, best viewed in a new tab/window.[/caption] The majority of countries use list-based proportional representation (PR), with most of those using an open-list system (where a voter can choose a preferred candidate on a party list). Closed-list systems (where the order on party lists, and the order in which candidates are elected, is decided by political parties) are less common. Mixed Member Systems – where politicians are elected in constituencies and on regional or national party lists – are also relatively common. Wales is set to drop this system as part of the Senedd (Members & Elections) Bill (read more about that here ). England/the UK Parliament and France are unique by using first-past-the-post and a two-round system respectively. Greece uses a mix of closed-list PR and a majority bonus system, where parties that receive a certain percentage of the vote win extra seats. Despite often being described as the closest thing to a "best" voting system, Single Transferable Vote (STV) isn't that common. Only Ireland, Northern Ireland and Malta use it; Scotland does it at the local government level, but has no plans to introduce it to the Scottish Parliament (as far as I'm aware). What makes a "good voting system"? The McAllister Review into the Senedd's electoral arrangements set out several "principles" by which different electoral systems were judged 1 : Government accountability and effectiveness – Returns "effective, accountable and stable governments", whether majorities or coalitions. Proportionality -Should be no less proportional than the Senedd's Mixed Member Electoral System (1999-2026). Member accountability - Ensures all Members are accountable to voters and able to represent them effectively and appropriately. Equivalent status - Ensure all Members are elected with the same mandate. Diversity - Encourage and support the election of representatives that reflect the make-up of the population. Voter choice – Allows voters to select or indicate a preference for individual candidates. Equivalent mandates – Votes should have the same value, with seats taking population and geography into account. Boundaries - Should be based on clearly defined geographic areas which are "meaningful to people" and take into account existing communities and electoral/administrative areas. Simplicity – Voting should be easy to understand. Sustainability and adaptability – Systems should be future-proofed to adapt to changing political, demographic and law-making trends. The following voting systems were rejected for different reasons 2 : [caption id="attachment_14377" align="aligncenter" width="700"] (Pic: From "A Parliament That Works For Wales", click to enlarge)[/caption] The Senedd is unlikely to return to the Mixed Member System (used between 1999-2026), despite it being considered a viable option in the McAllister Review. So four electoral systems used in Europe have been (hypothetically) deemed to be unsuitable for Wales: first-past-the-post, a two-round system, the Mixed Member System and closed-list PR. The Welsh Government, Labour and Plaid Cymru didn't accept this conclusion and from 2026 we're set for Senedd elections to use closed-list PR. Why has the Senedd opted for closed-list PR when the McAllister Review rejected it? [jnews_block_10 number_post="1" include_post="13802"] I went through it in a bit more detail there ↑. A summary of the arguments used by the Welsh Government - specifically present Counsel General, Mick Antoniw ( Lab , Pontypridd) 3 – and the Senedd's Reform Committee 4 would be: The results would be 100% proportional, which is more than the Mixed Member System. All Senedd Members would be elected with the same mandate as they would no longer be split into constituency and list members. Closed-list ballot papers are easy to understand; voters get a single vote for a party of their choice. Closed lists are "tried and tested"; electoral officers are used to them as seats are calculated in the same way as the 1999-2026 Senedd regional lists (D'Hondt method). The D'Hondt method – the maths used to calculate which parties win which seats (further explained by the Electoral Reform Society ) – wouldn't lead to too many smaller parties being elected to the Senedd and "holding undue influence", when they might otherwise benefit from different maths (i.e. Sainte-Laguë method, Hare quota). Closed lists make it easier to introduce gender quotas (via the Senedd Electoral Lists Bill, though it's unclear as of April 2024 whether the Senedd has the power to do this). Filling vacancies will be faster and more cost-effective as by-elections would no longer happen; the seat would pass to the next person on a party list who wasn't elected the first time around. Despite some considerable opposition against it – which was almost completely overlooked in the Bill's Explanatory Memorandum (though more comprehensively covered in the committee report) – we are where we are. What are the likely options for further reform in the future? Two other options considered by the McAllister Review (and the Senedd Reform Committee) were open-list PR and Single Transferable Vote (STV). Pretending for a moment that the closed-list system doesn't work and the Senedd decides to change things again, pre or post-independence, they're likely to be the two options on the table. [caption id="attachment_14378" align="aligncenter" width="948"] Click to enlarge, best viewed in a new tab/window.[/caption] 1. Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform (February 2022). "A Parliament that Works for Wales" (p212-213). Available at: https://senedd.wales/NAfW%20Documents/About%20the%20Assembly%20section%20documents/Expert%20Panel%20on%20Assembly%20Electoral%20Reform/A%20Parliament%20that%20Works%20for%20Wales.pdf 2. Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform (February 2022). "A Parliament that Works for Wales" (p128-129) 3. Welsh Government (September 2023). "Senedd (Elections & Members) Bill, Explanatory Memorandum" (p 35-43). Available at: https://senedd.wales/media/ixjdywtx/pri-ld16037-em-e.pdf 4. Senedd Cymru, Reform Bill Committee (January 2024). "Senedd (Elections & Members) Bill, Stage 1 Report" (p 93-101). Available at: https://senedd.wales/media/bupjpf3z/cr-ld16271-e.pdf IndyWales & Running Elections [caption id="attachment_14387" align="aligncenter" width="800"] Elections have been partially devolved to Wales, with the Electoral Commission retaining an important role in electoral administation (Pic: Electoral Commission, via Twitter).[/caption] How are elections in Wales currently run? There are four main players: The Electoral Commission – Oversee electoral arrangements and regulation at an all-UK level, as well as the register of political parties and campaigners ( Part II ). Local Government – Handles the practical aspects of elections including candidate nominations, maintaining the electoral register, running polling stations, printing ballot papers and postal votes, counting votes and declaring results. The Chief Executive of each of the 22 unitary authorities acts as a local Returning Officer – the person in charge of running an election on the ground. (Local) Democracy & Boundary Commission – At present, it's the body responsible for setting the boundaries for local government wards and Senedd constituencies. However, as part of the Elections & Elected Bodies Bill, it's set to become the main administrative and coordination body for Welsh local government and Senedd elections. Boundary Commission for Wales – Sets and reviews Westminister constituency boundaries; after independence this wouldn't be relevant. The Electoral Commission & Wales Electoral arrangements at local government and Senedd level were devolved in 2017. The (Senedd's) Llywydd's Committee is responsible for overseeing the Electoral Commission's devolved work in Wales. Some elements that remain non-devolved include: Elections to the UK Parliament, Police & Crime Commissioner elections and arrangements for/regulation of UK-wide referendums (after independence this wouldn't be relevant). Registration of political parties and general functions of the Electoral Commission (i.e. recording donations) - see Part II . The Electoral Commission's enforcement powers and punishments for election-related offences. The digital system used for the electoral register – though it's subject to Welsh language requirements. The Electoral Commission planned to spend £26.3million across the UK in 2024-25 5 . The majority of the funding will come from the UK Parliament (88%), with the Senedd making a £1.25million contribution (5.4%). Naturally, its budget varies depending on whether elections are due or not. The Electoral Commission at the UK level is managed by a group of 10 Commissioners – one of whom has direct responsibility for Wales. They're answerable to a Board. What are the options for managing elections after independence? For practical reasons, many elements would likely remain unchanged - including the role of local government in electoral arrangements. However, there's a debate to be had over whether acting as a Returning Officer should be considered part of a council Chief Executive's role, and covered by their existing pay , rather than something they charge a fee for. As for the rest: Maintain separate election regulation and boundary commissions (2 agencies) – The Electoral Commission would continue as is with its Cardiff office. This shouldn't be that difficult but may require additional specialist roles currently based in London to be replicated here. The Democracy & Boundary Commission would act as a national co-ordinator between returning officers and the agency that sets election boundaries. Maintain separate election regulation, election co-ordinator and boundary commissions (3 agencies) – As above, except the Electoral Commission would remain stand-alone, while the Democracy & Boundary Commission would be split into two agencies – one focusing on co-ordination between Returning Officers; the other setting electoral boundaries. Create a single independent electoral administration agency (Single agency) – This is probably the sensible choice and would effectively mean the present Electoral Commission merging into the soon-to-be-beefed-up Democracy & Boundary Commission. As for costs, a proportional share of the UK Electoral Commission 2024-25 spending plans – based on population – would be around £1.3million, so only a bit more than the Senedd currently contributes. In an election year, this might go up to £1.5-1.6million. The operating expenditure of the Local Democracy & Boundary Commission was £1.2million in 2022-23 6 . So you would expect a single electoral regulator would cost around £2.7-2.8million a year to run -the combined costs of the Electoral Commission and Local Democracy & Boundary Commission's activities in Wales. How much do elections in Wales cost? The 2021 Senedd election cost £4.6million 7 – which gives you a ballpark figure for a national-level election. An additional £600,000 was added to the costs due to Covid-19 measures. The cost of the 2017 UK general election was just under £141million (UK-wide figure) 8 . There's no Wales-only figure, but based on the total costs submitted by Returning Officers (£98.3million) on a per-constituency basis (40 out of 650), you would expect the proportional Wales-only figure to be around £6million, or £4.9million based on population share. The cost of local government elections and by-elections (at all levels) will vary, so there's no definite figure. 5. Electoral Commission. "Corporate Plan for Wales 2022/23 to 2026/27", Chapter 9: "Managing our costs in Wales". Available at: https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/about-us/our-plans-priorities-and-spending/corporate-plan-wales-2022/23-2026/27/9-managing-our-costs-wales 6. Local Democracy & Boundary Commission (12th December 2023). "Annual Report & Financial Statement 2022-23" (p36). Available at: https://d34hss7hg6i3n.cloudfront.net/publications/LDBCW-Final-Accounts-AR-2022-23-Web.pdf 7. Welsh Government (September 2023). "Senedd election costs: 2021". Available at: https://www.gov.wales/senedd-elections-costs-2021 8. UK Parliament, Chris Skidmore MP (13th September 2017). "Written Statement: Cabinet Office Consolidated Fund Standing Service". Available at: https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statements/detail/2017-09-13/HCWS130 What needs to be looked at in terms of voting and election conduct? [caption id="attachment_14386" align="aligncenter" width="700"] Are out current election arrangements outdated? Or is it a case of "if it ain's broke, don't fix it"? (Pic: Hywel72 under Creative Commons Licence BY-SA-4.0).[/caption] I'm going to look at some in more detail than others, more for the word count than anything else. Electoral fraud & voter ID Electoral fraud is almost non-existent in Wales. According to the Electoral Commission 9 , since 2017 there have been (by my count) 53 instances of electoral fraud recorded by the four Welsh police forces, leading to a total of one conviction. ONE. All other incidents were either settled locally (i.e. the offenders being given advice) or subject to no further action. Only 6 of these instances related to voting. The vast majority of recorded offences (36) related to campaigning – so were committed by candidates, parties and agents (i.e. false statements on nomination and expense forms). The UK Government decided to find a solution to a problem that didn't exist and has made it a legal requirement to bring a valid form of photo ID to vote in UK Parliament and Police & Crime Commissioner elections – so our first experience of this in Wales is 2024's PCC elections. While photo ID solves the "crisis" of people impersonating other people – and you can apply for a free voter ID - it doesn't solve the far more widespread electoral fraud committed while campaigning. I'd like to think the Senedd (pre or post-independence) is smart enough to not bring in voter ID for elections. The easiest, and most cost-effective, solution would be for voters to have to take a polling card with them to vote (or send it with a postal vote) – it's currently not a requirement, you only have to give a name and address. Each polling card could have a unique QR code or alike to ensure a person can only vote once; this has already been piloted elsewhere . 9. Electoral Commission. "Electoral fraud data 2017-2023). Available at: https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/research-reports-and-data/electoral-fraud-data Electronic voting At the moment all votes are on paper (whether in person or via post). Moving to a more high-tech method – whether via electronic voting machines or voting via app/over the internet – would present some advantages. One is that votes could be counted more quickly – if not instantly. It would also make it easier for people whose first language is neither English nor Welsh to vote, as well as people with sensory disabilities. It might increase turnout by making voting more convenient if you could potentially vote from home. There are obvious downsides too. The first is whether there would be confidence in the results. At present, tellers can watch votes being counted and ballot boxes being emptied in person, but you can't do that with e-voting. Similarly, there are security concerns – a voting machine or electoral server can be hacked or have a bug; pen and paper with tamper-proof sealed boxes can't. It's the same for assisted/electronic counting. Many countries use electronic counting – either as some sort of scanner, or a tallying machine. Scotland has used electronic counting for local and Scottish Parliament elections since 2007 and it's particularly useful where complicated electoral systems like Single Transferable Vote (STV) are used. Also, e-voting systems usually use closed-source software supplied by tech companies and likely to come with an expensive licence to use it. This isn't the case with open-source software (like Linux) where you can inspect the code yourself if you have the technical know-how. Candidate deposits A deposit is a sum of money a candidate puts in with their nomination papers. If they receive above a certain vote percentage (usually 5% of votes cast) they get this money back. There are no deposits to stand for a community council or local authority. There may be an argument to introduce one for local authorities/county councils or, potentially, directly elected mayors. There's a £500 deposit to stand as an MP or Member of the Senedd. The deposit to stand as a Police & Crime Commissioner is £5,000. Keeping a deposit system – or increasing it (whether by a higher monetary value or a higher vote share threshold for candiates to retainthem) - might discourage parties from putting up poor quality "paper candidates" (candidates that they know stand no realistic chance of being elected), but it would present a barrier to candidates with low or fixed incomes. As losing a deposit has a stigma attached, it dampens political plurality by discouraging smaller parties and novelty candidates from standing. Political broadcasts, election literature & election information At present, political parties are allocated a set time, free of charge, by public service broadcasters – particularly during election campaigns or in response to (UK) budgets. Should rules around party political broadcasts be loosened in Wales (to effectively allow paid-for political advertising)? Should public funding be set aside for political parties (based on their electoral success) – as in New Zealand – to cover the cost of election literature and producing political broadcasts? Should we do something similar to Switzerland and send a single booklet to each household – with space set aside for political parties (or campaigns in a referendum) – containing all the relevant election information? Could we copy Ireland and, during election periods, allow political parties to put temporary signs on lamp posts (instead of front gardens)? [caption id="attachment_14379" align="aligncenter" width="948"] Click to enlarge, best viewed in a new tab/window.[/caption] Should Wales introduce compulsory voting? As mentioned in Part I , low turnouts in Welsh elections are something that has long been believed to undermine the legitimacy of elections and democracy more generally. The idea of compulsory voting being introduced in Wales has been debated in the Senedd - one of the keenest proponents being Plaid Cymru's Adam Price MS. He tabled a debate on a proposed backbench Members Bill in 2023 which proposed making voting a "civic duty", with a "none of the above" option included on ballot papers and an "appropriate sanction" for not voting. His motion was approved by 20-12 with 20 abstentions. [caption id="attachment_14380" align="aligncenter" width="948"] <img class="wp-image-14380 size-full" src="https://stateofwales-com.stacktemp.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/compulsory-voting.jpg" alt="Common arguments for and against the introduction of compulsory voting. The main advantages are increased legitimacy (due to higher turnouts) and reducing disengagement from politics by requiring people to form an opinion. The main disadvantages are issues over whether people should be compelled to vote in terms of human rights, and that compulsory voting only masks problems in a democracy instead of solving them." width="948" height="1128" /> Click to enlarge, best viewed in a new tab/window.[/caption] There was support for the idea in principle across all parties – though all but one Tory MS voted against it (along with Labour's Alun Davies) and most Welsh Government MSs abstained. The Welsh Government's response - via the Counsel General, Mick Antoniw - was that reforming the electoral system was the priority. Trying to pass a law for compulsory voting would also need "careful consideration" as there are potential human rights issues. It's not entirely clear if the Senedd have the power to bring in compulsory voting either (similar to challenges around gender quotas - Part IV ). With independence, the issue of the powers wouldn't be a problem, though human rights issues could remain. How have other nations introduced compulsory voting? There are three broad categories: Enforced (Australia, Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) – Voting is compulsory and people who don't vote are prosecuted. This is usually in the form of a fine and/or loss of civil privileges, such as being barred from using certain public services. If you count North Korean elections as being legitimately democratic, then not voting could prove fatal. Enforced in principle, but not in practice (Belgium, Singapore, Egypt) – In these situations, there's usually a punishment for not voting, but it's rarely enforced. Or there's a civic penalty that's unlikely to seriously disadvantage someone (i.e. being struck off the electoral register). Soft touch/no enforcement (Paraguay, Greece, Mexico, Thailand, Costa Rica) – Voting is either described as a constitutional duty or is "officially" compulsory, but it's neither enforced nor punished. How could Wales introduce compulsory voting? You would assume it would be introduced as an electoral reform law. I doubt there would be a referendum on it. However, as it alters the constitution to compel the public to do something there's an argument that it should be subject to a referendum. There would need to be a massive public information campaign, regardless – that would likely cost several million pounds. One other main issue is, of course, whether this would be enforced. It'll be straightforward to work out who doesn't vote. It would presumably be for local government democratic services departments to chase up non-voters. You would expect the first instance to result in a written warning and fines to be issued for all instances after that; assuming the Senedd wants to go down the road of full enforcement. De-registering someone from voting (as a penalty) won't work as we're moving to automatic voter registration in Wales anyway. Any fines would need to be high enough to act as a deterrence, but low enough that it doesn't cause undue hardship. Anything between £10-50 would be the range. Other questions would include what the legitimate excuses would be for not voting, as well as what happens to people who refuse to pay the fines – do they go to court to face even higher fines? If there's a critical mass of people who refuse to vote, would that clog up the courts? Or would it be best dealt with via a more informal tribunal?

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Elections

Although many reforms have been introduced in Wales, or are in the pipeline, what elements of voting & elections need another look?

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Democracy

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Political Parties

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Better Politics

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Political Parties

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Better Politics

Owen Donovan

Archive

Categories

Copyright

Subscribe by Email

Search

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Elections

Although many reforms have been introduced in Wales, or are in the pipeline, what elements of voting & elections need another look?

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Democracy

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Political Parties

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Better Politics

1. What electoral reforms have already been introduced in Wales?

1. What electoral reforms have already been introduced in Wales?

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Political Parties

The Political Machine: IndyWales & Better Politics

Owen Donovan

Archive

Categories

Copyright

Subscribe by Email

Search