The third part of this series on democracy and independence looks at one of the more important elements: elections and voting.
Firstly, it’s worth looking at what the rest of Europe’s democracies do:
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The majority of countries use list-based proportional representation (PR), with most of those using an open-list system (where a voter can choose a preferred candidate on a party list). Closed-list systems (where the order on party lists, and the order in which candidates are elected, is decided by political parties) are less common.
Mixed Member Systems – where politicians are elected in constituencies and on regional or national party lists – are also relatively common. Wales is set to drop this system as part of the Senedd (Members & Elections) Bill (read more about that here).
England/the UK Parliament and France are unique by using first-past-the-post and a two-round system respectively.
Greece uses a mix of closed-list PR and a majority bonus system, where parties that receive a certain percentage of the vote win extra seats.
Despite often being described as the closest thing to a “best” voting system, Single Transferable Vote (STV) isn’t that common. Only Ireland, Northern Ireland and Malta use it; Scotland does it at the local government level, but has no plans to introduce it to the Scottish Parliament (as far as I’m aware).
What makes a “good voting system”?
The McAllister Review into the Senedd’s electoral arrangements set out several “principles” by which different electoral systems were judged1:
- Government accountability and effectiveness – Returns “effective, accountable and stable governments”, whether majorities or coalitions.
- Proportionality -Should be no less proportional than the Senedd’s Mixed Member Electoral System (1999-2026).
- Member accountability – Ensures all Members are accountable to voters and able to represent them effectively and appropriately.
- Equivalent status – Ensure all Members are elected with the same mandate.
- Diversity – Encourage and support the election of representatives that reflect the make-up of the population.
- Voter choice – Allows voters to select or indicate a preference for individual candidates.
- Equivalent mandates – Votes should have the same value, with seats taking population and geography into account.
- Boundaries – Should be based on clearly defined geographic areas which are “meaningful to people” and take into account existing communities and electoral/administrative areas.
- Simplicity – Voting should be easy to understand.
- Sustainability and adaptability – Systems should be future-proofed to adapt to changing political, demographic and law-making trends.
The following voting systems were rejected for different reasons2:
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The Senedd is unlikely to return to the Mixed Member System (used between 1999-2026), despite it being considered a viable option in the McAllister Review.
So four electoral systems used in Europe have been (hypothetically) deemed to be unsuitable for Wales: first-past-the-post, a two-round system, the Mixed Member System and closed-list PR.
The Welsh Government, Labour and Plaid Cymru didn’t accept this conclusion and from 2026 we’re set for Senedd elections to use closed-list PR.
Why has the Senedd opted for closed-list PR when the McAllister Review rejected it?
Last week, the Senedd (Members & Elections) Bill was tabled. It comes after the best part of 20 years of...
Senedd & Elections Bill: The Good, The Bad, The Missed Opportunities
I went through it in a bit more detail there ↑.
A summary of the arguments used by the Welsh Government – specifically present Counsel General, Mick Antoniw (Lab, Pontypridd)3 – and the Senedd’s Reform Committee4 would be:
- The results would be 100% proportional, which is more than the Mixed Member System.
- All Senedd Members would be elected with the same mandate as they would no longer be split into constituency and list members.
- Closed-list ballot papers are easy to understand; voters get a single vote for a party of their choice.
- Closed lists are “tried and tested”; electoral officers are used to them as seats are calculated in the same way as the 1999-2026 Senedd regional lists (D’Hondt method).
- The D’Hondt method – the maths used to calculate which parties win which seats (further explained by the Electoral Reform Society) – wouldn’t lead to too many smaller parties being elected to the Senedd and “holding undue influence”, when they might otherwise benefit from different maths (i.e. Sainte-Laguë method, Hare quota).
- Closed lists make it easier to introduce gender quotas (via the Senedd Electoral Lists Bill, though it’s unclear as of April 2024 whether the Senedd has the power to do this).
- Filling vacancies will be faster and more cost-effective as by-elections would no longer happen; the seat would pass to the next person on a party list who wasn’t elected the first time around.
Despite some considerable opposition against it – which was almost completely overlooked in the Bill’s Explanatory Memorandum (though more comprehensively covered in the committee report) – we are where we are.
What are the likely options for further reform in the future?
Two other options considered by the McAllister Review (and the Senedd Reform Committee) were open-list PR and Single Transferable Vote (STV).
Pretending for a moment that the closed-list system doesn’t work and the Senedd decides to change things again, pre or post-independence, they’re likely to be the two options on the table.
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1. Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform (February 2022). “A Parliament that Works for Wales” (p212-213). Available at: https://senedd.wales/NAfW%20Documents/About%20the%20Assembly%20section%20documents/Expert%20Panel%20on%20Assembly%20Electoral%20Reform/A%20Parliament%20that%20Works%20for%20Wales.pdf
2. Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform (February 2022). “A Parliament that Works for Wales” (p128-129)
3. Welsh Government (September 2023). “Senedd (Elections & Members) Bill, Explanatory Memorandum” (p 35-43). Available at: https://senedd.wales/media/ixjdywtx/pri-ld16037-em-e.pdf
4. Senedd Cymru, Reform Bill Committee (January 2024). “Senedd (Elections & Members) Bill, Stage 1 Report” (p 93-101). Available at: https://senedd.wales/media/bupjpf3z/cr-ld16271-e.pdf
