After looking at democracy, attention turns to the star teams in the sport of representative democracy: the parties.
Would independence knock Labour off its perch?
If independence happens “by accident” (i.e. Wales becomes independent by default, such as through England seceding from the Union, or a gradual fragmentation of the UK over decades), you would expect Labour to survive intact and at the same relative strength they have now in Wales.
Labour would carry no negative political baggage for having not picked sides. They could campaign for people to unite behind them to ensure stability as they have government experience. Under these circumstances, Labour would remain the dominant “broad church” party – akin to Fianna Fáil in post-independence Ireland.
The more likely scenario is Wales becomes independent following a referendum “yes” vote, with Labour either campaigning on both sides or opting to back the Union.
If, as in Scotland in 2014, it produces a closer-than-expected result they might pay an electoral penalty for being “anti-Welsh” or in cahoots with the Conservatives. In this scenario, you would expect a weaker post-independence Labour Party, but one that retains significant influence and would gradually rebuild.
Either way, independence would present challenges to Labour’s internal politics and its position as the establishment party.
Without a “blame everything on Westminister” narrative, the lack of a cause and effect in Welsh politics might end; the public will pay attention to what’s happening in Cardiff. At present things are very comfortable for them – responsibilities without accountability.
While there’s currently a protective bubble provided by Westminister’s incompetence and a weak Welsh media, after independence Labour would come under much closer scrutiny as hot-button issues like criminal justice, welfare, foreign policy and defence are decided and debated in the Senedd. How would a Senedd in an independent Wales react to the latest escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, for example?
Labour’s affiliation with trade unions would continue to put them on a firm financial footing. However, they would need a membership drive to make up for any lost income from the UK party would probably have to spend more fighting elections.
Would independence kill Plaid Cymru?
One highly ironic outcome is that independence would be fatal to Plaid Cymru in the same way Brexit killed UKIP. If Plaid achieves their core political goal they would, logically, have no reason to exist anymore.
There are several ways it could go:
- Plaid Cymru displaces Labour as the main centre-left party (as the SNP has done to an extent in Scotland). In order to not lose social capital, civil society groups and trade unions align themselves to Plaid. Labour would be left as a more out-and-out socialist party rump (similar to the Labour Party in Ireland).
- Plaid Cymru carries on, but instead of focusing on independence (that argument being won) becomes more culturally conservative and ecological in scope. They could evolve into something like the “agrarian” parties you see in the rest of Europe. They would abandon pretences of competing with Labour in post-industrial Wales, leaving that to a new sister party. In this scenario, they might displace the Conservatives as the main party of rural Wales – both English and Welsh-speaking.
- Plaid Cymru and Labour merge to form a new “big tent” centre-left party that becomes the dominant force in Welsh politics. It would play out as the Labour scenario but under a different brand.
- Plaid Cymru splits due to different visions of what a post-independence Wales should look like. Members would then either join pre-existing parties closest to their goals or establish new ones that closely cooperate through electoral pacts – possibly as an alliance similar to the Greens-EFA in the EU Parliament.
Conservatives: Independence’s big winners?
The Tories would certanly oppose independence and take leadership of any “No” campaign in a hypothetical future referendum (as in Scotland in 2014).
Firstly, what happens in a scenario where Wales would be set to become “independent by accident”. Amongst a panicked Tory rank and file, there might be a sense we’ve slipped too far down the slippery slope and support for abolishing the Senedd (which already exists within the Conservative party) might translate into support for abolishing Wales.
If, however, Wales became independent and there was nothing the Tories could do about it (i.e. a referendum “yes” vote) they’ll have no choice but to adapt – and until recently they had adapted well to devolution. There’s no reason to assume they couldn’t do the same in a newly independent Wales.
They could, inadvertently, become the big winners in the post-independence political landscape if a few things play out their way.
Embracing cultural nationalism would take votes in Welsh-speaking Wales if Plaid Cymru ever left the stage. That’s combined with appealing to the small-c conservative, ageing Welsh demographic.
If they combined that with dropping the populism, ditching past baggage (particularly the legacies of Thatcherism and Brexit) and adopted a more moderate “compassionate conservative” stance, with genuinely well-thought-out policies, they could hoover up votes.
If they moved even closer to the centre ground, the possibility of a new centrist/liberal party could emerge – possibly a merger between the Conservatives and Lib Dems – becoming a Welsh equivalent of Ireland’s Fine Gael. A “we lost the argument on independence/what independence should look like, but let’s make the most of it” party.
Independence therefore could, ironically, become the Conservatives’ best chance of realising their dream of forming a government in the Senedd.
