A round up of some of the things you might want to keep an eye on when the local election results come in later this week.
Will the Welsh Government’s voting pilots boost turnout?
Several local authorities are taking part in early voting pilots, where electors can either vote on the days immediately before the usual voting day or the weekend before. At least one pilot is also putting polling stations in secondary schools to encourage the newly-enfranchised 16-and-17-year olds to get into the habit of voting.
Turnout in local elections is often very poor – lower than Senedd elections, even – so the pilots would have to show some sort if uptick to be considered successful. So far, with a few exceptions the election campaign has been low key and the general impression I get is one of apathy – but that’s just Bridgend and it may be different elsewhere.
I’m doubtful as to whether these pilots will work. I don’t think there’s any sign yet that lowering the voting age to 16 for the Senedd elections last year caused a mass rush to polling stations by young people either.
Some aspects of local government will change after the election when the Local Government & Elections Act comes fully into effect, including measures to “improve public participation” such as petitions systems and annual reports. As usual, it might be the case of the Welsh Government and Senedd correctly diagnosing a problem but coming up with the wrong solutions.
Making voting more convenient isn’t the issue and neither is making it compulsory – the problem is not having anything to vote for.
Many council services have been centralised, hived off to voluntary organisations or regional bodies, downsized or outsourced and it’s become increasingly unclear to many people what councils or councillors do.
Decisions in local government are now heavily guided by officer recommendations and Welsh and UK government policies. While councillors still play a role in scrutinising decisions and raising concerns on behalf of constituents, even Cabinet Members are seemingly left with very little to do other than wield a rubber stamp.
Will Independents remain the second biggest group in Welsh local government?
Perhaps fearful that they won’t hoover up as many votes from a possible anti-Tory backlash as they might like, Labour has targeted Independent candidates and groups through social media ads over the last week or so.
Depending on your political affiliations, Independents either don’t want to let the tribalism and baggage that comes from being a political party member get in the way of serving their community, or they’re hiding their true political beliefs and are actually Tory/Labour/UKIP/Nationalist/Labour/Nazi/Trot/Monster Raving Loony in disguise (delete as appropriate).
The odds are that if you’re a member of a party and are continually frustrated at your local party’s lack of success you’ll lean towards the latter belief. That does Independent candidates a disservice because they’re popular and influential in most parts of Wales. It takes guts to stand without the backing of anyone else or a party machine – but is that the case with most Independents now?
Independents often pick up support when they tap into the belief that a dominant local political party has let the community down or has become complacent and there’s no credible alternative found in another party.
In some areas, they’ve become political parties in all but name and there’s a risk they may fall into the same rut as the mainstream parties and get punished for that themselves.
Can the Tories hang on to their council seats in “The Red Wall”?
The early chatter is that the Conservatives could expect to lose a significant number of council seats in English local elections so, naturally, the same chatter applies to Wales.
It might not be that clear cut. First of all, the Conservatives only run one council outright and in some councils often don’t need to win large numbers of seats to play a part in running them. As things stand you would expect them to retain control of Monmouthshire and play a part in running the likes of Conwy.
The acid test will be in places like Wrexham, Flintshire and Bridgend, which don’t naturally lean Conservative but have Conservative MPs that haven’t covered themselves in glory since being elected in 2019. Some Conservative candidates have even gone so far as to drop the name “Conservative” from their election literature.
Elsewhere, there’s the chance that the UK Government’s perceived unpopularity will work against Tory councillors. As such, the Conservatives in Wales have been eager to point out that these are local elections that have no bearing on the UK Government and people should vote on local issues – putting things like council tax front and centre of their campaigns. The problem is that many people will be far more aware of what’s happening at Westminster and its long history of pantomime politics than their local council.
Will Plaid Cymru take outright control across Y Fro Gymraeg?
Although Plaid Cymru is likely to retain overall control of Gwynedd, in 2017 they fell narrowly short of taking control of the other three councils in “Y Fro Gymraeg” – Anglesey, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.
They would only have to notionally gain a half dozen or so seats on their 2017 results to achieve that, but given boundary reviews and alike it’s unclear whether that task has been made easier or harder this year.
Winning outright control of more councils (rather than gaining seats) will be crucial to Plaid’s post-election narrative on whether they’ve done well or not given that there’s a possibility they could lose seats in places like Rhondda Cynon Taf.
Will Labour rule the Valleys?
There’s a general expectation that Labour is going to do relatively well. I said at the start of the coverage that they ought to be confident they won’t finish off any worse than they are now and a different outcome would be a surprise (though likely more bad news for Keir Starmer than Mark Drakeford).
There are some councils in the south where Labour will face a tougher challenge than elsewhere, like the Vale of Glamorgan, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend and possibly Neath Port Talbot. If, however, they have a good night it’s likely they could outright control, or be in a position to lead, every council from Swansea to Torfaen. Another one to keep an eye on is Merthyr Tydfil, where Labour are expected to take control from Independents.
Will the “Common Ground Alliance” in Cardiff bear fruit?
There will be high expectations from both Plaid Cymru and the Greens that their electoral pact in Cardiff will secure a respectable number of councillors.
The Greens have long needed to make some kind of breakthrough in Welsh politics (my definition of “breakthrough” would be winning a double-figure number of seats across Wales). Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru will be seeking to rebuild its presence in the capital following disappointing results in 2021 and the loss of its only councillors to Propel.
In the absence of single transferable vote and with seemingly no single-member wards in Cardiff, an electoral pact makes sense to avoid vote splitting between two parties that occupy similar political ground. It’s almost secured them a full slate of candidates and puts them in a position to sneak a few seats through third or fourth-placed finishes. So it’ll be worth looking at how well Common Ground performs compared to a more established “third party” such as the Lib Dems (and Propel).
If it works, then it may be something we’ll see in future elections where it’s not practical or desirable for Plaid and the Greens to stand against each other (especially in “British Wales”/M4 corridor and the north-east).
I don’t think they necessarily need to win a load of seats to consider the pact a success; anything between 3-6 seats would be enough to qualify as a success as long as they get results that would put them in a position to win more seats in the future (i.e. a good fifth-place finish in a four-seat ward). Anything other than that though could prove embarrassing.
