The final local election preview takes in the post-1996 authorities that were part of the former South, West and Mid Glamorgan.
Pedants who will say, “Well, Rhymney Valley was in Mid Glamorgan so surely you should put Caerphilly here?” are politely redirected to the Gwent preview.
- Current Administration: Labour minority.
- Current Leader: Cllr. Huw David (Lab).
- Number of Seats (2022): 51 (-3).
- Current Seat Distribution: Labour (24), Independents & Non-Affiliated (20), Conservative (7), Plaid Cymru (2), Liberal Democrats (1).
Previous Results:
- 1995 – Labour control.
- 1999 – Labour control.
- 2004 – Labour control.
- 2008 – No Overall Control.
- 2012 – Labour control.
- 2017 – No Overall Control.
I’m looking at this in more detail over at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr (obviously) with ward-by-ward previews being posted this week.
Of all the current Labour-controlled authorities in the south, Bridgend is the one that could possibly let the red side down.
Despite generally stepping up when it mattered during the pandemic, the council doesn’t seem to be particularly popular at the moment after a series of serious service failures including ongoing rows over home-school transport, perceived pressure on local services from new housing developments and the Caerau insulation scandal. The fallout from the Logan Mwangi murder trial could lead to serious repercussions for the council’s social services department in the future too. The overall impression is that, “Something’s not right.”
Labour usually wins most of the seats in the three valleys north of the M4 but has come under increasing pressure from organised Independent groups county-wide. If the Independents have a good election, they could not only deny Labour majority or minority control but be in a position to form an alternative administration.
That scenario is unlikely if not impossible, but Labour would probably need to overperform and see a few close-run ward contests go their way to win a majority.
The Conservatives won 11 seats in 2017. Due to infighting and other disputes, several councillors left the group. The remaining Tories have an overall poor attendance record and poor levels of referrals/activity. Despite this, they could potentially retain or even gain a few seats in Porthcawl (Newton, Nottage, Rest Bay), but it’s doubtful whether they can repeat 2017’s performance.
