The final local election preview takes in the post-1996 authorities that were part of the former South, West and Mid Glamorgan.
Pedants who will say, “Well, Rhymney Valley was in Mid Glamorgan so surely you should put Caerphilly here?” are politely redirected to the Gwent preview.
- Current Administration: Labour majority.
- Current Leader: Cllr. Huw Thomas (Lab).
- Number of Seats (2022): 79 (+4).
- Current Seat Distribution: Labour (39), Conservative (21), Liberal Democrats (11), Propel (3), Independents & Non-Affiliated (1).
Previous Results:
- 1995 – Labour control.
- 1999 – Labour control.
- 2004 – No Overall Control.
- 2008 – No Overall Control.
- 2012 – Labour control.
- 2017 – Labour control.
For everyone thinking that the tide might be turning against Labour in the capital, I’d remind them that the 2012-2017 term produced one of the most dysfunctional local government administrations in the post-1996 landscape and Labour still won the next election with a landslide.
The threatened black swan event was the possible six-week refuse collectors strike called by the Unite union over claims of bullying, but it was called off at the last minute following a breakthrough in talks.
There’s long been a near north-south split in Cardiff’s political geography with Labour dominating the south and the Conservatives dominating the north. The Lib Dems for a few years managed to dominate central Cardiff and are still strong in the Cyncoed and Penylan areas.
You can’t see the Lib Dems making a significant comeback, but they would do well if they kept what they have. The Conservatives notionally stand to benefit from some of the ward changes in the north but unless they can win seats across the city, the best they can hope for is second place (and should achieve that).
All in all, I doubt Labour will be losing too much sleep over their chances of keeping a majority.
The big unknown is the possible performance of the Common Ground Alliance between Plaid Cymru and the Greens. They could tap into a very broad range of “oppositionists” on the left ranging from straight-up NIMBYs to long-standing critics of the council’s policies who haven’t had an outlet that’s acceptable to them before.
The shortlist of grievances includes dissatisfaction with delays to critical infrastructure (particularly the length of time it’s taken for a new bus station to be built); a sense that the council are “in developers’ pockets” (resulting in some poor modernist architectural blight); opposition to large greenfield developments such as the new Velindre Hospital and Plasdwr; opposition to the latest wave of Russell Goodway-inspired projects in Cardiff Bay (such as the new arena).
There’s always a risk that such a pact will end up defining themselves by what they’re against than what they’re for, but they should be in a position to win at least a few seats – probably in third or fourth place in wards like Grangetown, Canton, Riverside and Cathays. I said previously that winning six seats would be a decent enough outcome.
Elsewhere, you would expect the three sitting Propel councillors to be returned in Fairwater – including Neil McEvoy himself – though they may find it a bit more difficult to add to that number.
