The final local election preview takes in the post-1996 authorities that were part of the former South, West and Mid Glamorgan.
Pedants who will say, “Well, Rhymney Valley was in Mid Glamorgan so surely you should put Caerphilly here?” are politely redirected to the Gwent preview.
- Current Administration: Labour majority.
- Current Leader: Cllr. Andrew Morgan (Lab).
- Number of Seats (2022): 75 (n/c).
- Current Seat Distribution: Labour (47), Plaid Cymru (17), Independents & Non-Affiliated (7), Conservative (3), Vacant seat (1).
Previous Results:
- 1995 – Labour control.
- 1999 – Plaid Cymru control.
- 2004 – Labour control.
- 2008 – Labour control.
- 2012 – Labour control.
- 2017 – Labour control.
The trend since the 2004 election has been: Labour big win – Labour win – Labour big win – Labour win, which points towards 2022 being “Labour big win” (i.e winning more than 50-55 seats).
The big factor behind a possible “Labour big win” is the Leader. Andrew Morgan has stood out as one of the more popular and communicative local authority leaders in Wales over the last few years and unlike certain other local authorities seems to be more of an asset than a liability. People actually know who he is – and, trust me, that’s a bigger deal than you might think.
There are, nevertheless, some potential problems. For one, ongoing issues around the February 2020 floods and what may be perceived to be a sense of inaction on the council’s part. Labour has been punished for policy failures in RCT in the past – notably the campaign over the Nantygwyddon tip – but it’s unclear whether the floods have captured that same sense of injustice (because people are just more cynical and apathetic now).
If Labour manages to repeat their 2021 Senedd performances in Rhondda and the Cynon Valley then it could turn out to be a difficult election for Plaid Cymru. Plaid dropped to a single figure number of councillors in 2012 and while things might not end up being that bad it’s probably more about what seats they can keep than what they can gain.
One of the contests to watch is the new Mountain Ash ward, where 2 Labour candidates – including Andrew Morgan – will be standing against Plaid Cymru group leader, Pauline Jarman, for the two seats on offer. Pauline Jarman has a personal vote, but that’s a tough ask.
Plaid seems to be overly reliant on doing well in the Rhondda Fawr – although they’ve been making inroads in Pontypridd and have had flash-in-the-pan success in the northern Cynon Valley and the south of the county (Llanharry, Llantwit Fardre etc.) in previous elections. For Plaid Cymru it may well be a case of “hope for the best but prepare for the worst”.
Historically, Independents have never performed particularly well in RCT. While an organised Independent group was formed during the term by sitting Independents, disaffected Conservatives and Lib Dems, they’re miles away from being influential and retaining their current seats would be a decent outcome.
The south of the county – around Church Village, Llantwit Fardre, Pontyclun etc. – may be increasingly leaning Conservative as an extension of the Vale of Glamorgan (similarly to parts of Bridgend) though they’ve only enjoyed token success so far.
