The final local election preview takes in the post-1996 authorities that were part of the former South, West and Mid Glamorgan.
Pedants who will say, “Well, Rhymney Valley was in Mid Glamorgan so surely you should put Caerphilly here?” are politely redirected to the Gwent preview.
- Current Administration: Independent minority (with support from other Independent groups).
- Current Leader: Cllr. Lisa Mytton (Ind).
- Number of Seats (2022): 30 (-3).
- Current Seat Distribution: Independents & Non-Affiliated (17), Labour (15), Vacant seat (1).
Previous Results:
- 1995 – Labour control.
- 1999 – Labour control.
- 2004 – Labour control.
- 2008 – No Overall Control.
- 2012 – Labour control.
- 2017 – Independent control.
Merthyr is likely to be one of the more interesting contests.
Independents currently have a majority on the council, but because they’re in separate groups only one of them is involved in the administration. That administration has been bogged down with challenges over the last term including the suspension of the Council Leader and Welsh Government intervention over financial concerns.
What the current council does have going for them is a successful regeneration programme (which Labour may well claim started under their previous administration) and the fact they have seemingly learned lessons from various interventions and even managed to run a budget surplus on occasion.
Nonetheless, Labour will have Merthyr very high up its target list and will only need to make a few gains on their 2017 results to get over the line and form an administration.
The biggest problem they face is that while the boundary review has resulted in the wards remaining the same in number, nominally the cut in the number of councillors hurts Labour more based on the 2017 results. They would need more first and second-place finishes in wards like Dowlais, Park and Gurnos.
Some wards such as Vaynor, Penydarren and Bedlinog are also rock-solid for the Independents, but some Independent groups are standing against other Independent groups – which may complicate matters.
Plaid Cymru has increased their number of candidates and has a full slate in the Town ward – maybe they can sneak a third or fourth-place finish.
Labour will be confident they can get to at least 16 seats, but it might not be as easy going as they think.
