This final tranche of posts in the “A Welsh Justice System” series looks at the consequences of crime and the possible options for Wales concerning the rehabilitation (and punishment) of criminals.
To start things off – “What are the causes and effects of crime in Wales?”
There’s no single cause of crime and it’s as much a product of society as the actions of a single person or group of people. In a broad-stroke sense, the most commonly cited causes of crime include:
Poverty – It’s lazy to say outright that “poverty causes crime” as the majority of people living in poverty won’t become criminals. There is some evidence that crime rates within poor communities can be suppressed if matched with income redistribution and higher levels of public spending1– but we already knew that. If people have limited life chances, then crime may be one of the only means by which they can materially make themselves better off (even survive) in the shortest space of time.
Substance Abuse – Between 2006-2016, the proportion of violent crimes committed in Wales where offenders were under the influence of alcohol ranged between 44% and 73% – much higher than England2. For illegal recreational drugs, the range was between 11-33%. Drug addiction has also been a driver for thefts to pay off drug-related debts and there’s the long-standing problem of drink spiking and date rapes. While not every crime will be drink or drug-related it’s clear a sizable proportion are. Drugs are also linked to organised criminal gangs such as those involved in “county lines” – which have impacted most parts of Wales.
Peer pressure – Negative peer pressure can lead young people in particular towards crime. It’s not exactly easy to resist as being outside a group may make you a target for crime as much as being in a bad group can push you towards committing crimes. Most of the time this is going to be low-level stuff like petty vandalism and anti-social behaviour, but dealing with that will take up a disproportionate amount of police resources and just one mistake could prove costly.
Family instability – There’s evidence that divorce and family breakdown in itself doesn’t necessarily lead to an increased risk of a child getting involved in crime or repeat offending as long as the separation process is clean and dealt with maturely3. The risk only appears if parenting is inconsistent, there are adverse childhood experiences involved (i.e. being abused as a child, bullying, being expelled or excluded from school, growing up with alcoholic parents) or smaller crimes in youth turn into bigger ones in adulthood4.
Personal circumstances – Much like substance abuse, issues such as mental health problems (including certain personality disorders), long-term unemployment5, learning disabilities6 and alike increase the chances of someone turning to crime – much for the same reasons as poverty.
Revenge, greed & control – Crime is partially governed by psychology, emotion/instinct and a person’s state of mind. Greed can be driven by desperation or simply taking something that doesn’t belong to you because you want it. Some so-called “crimes of passion” may be driven by revenge, while organised crime may be a combination of all of them. Some people may even get a kick out of it and enjoy crime and the lifestyle it grants you, while it’s often been said that crimes like rape are about control and degradation as much as they are about sex.
1: Anser, M.K., Yousaf, Z., Nassani, A.A. et al. (2020). Dynamic linkages between poverty, inequality, crime, and social expenditures in a panel of 16 countries: two-step GMM estimates. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-00220-6
2: Office of National Statistics, Crime Survey for England and Wales (July 2017). Estimates of Violent incidents where the victim believed the offender(s) to be under the influence of alcohol or drugs in England and Wales, year ending March 2006 to year ending March 2016. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/adhocs/007185estimatesofviolentincidentswherethevictimbelievedtheoffenderstobeundertheinfluenceofalcoholordrugsinenglandandwalesyearendingmarch2006toyearendingmarch2016crimesurveyforenglandandwales
3: Mednick, B. R., Baker, R. L., & Carothers, L. E. (1990). Patterns of family instability and crime: The association of timing of the family’s disruption with subsequent adolescent and young adult criminality. Journal of youth and adolescence. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01537887
4: Van Duin, L., De Vries Robbé, M., Marhe, R., Bevaart, F., Zijlmans, J., Luijks, M.-J. A., Doreleijers, T. A. H., & Popma, A. (2021). Criminal History and Adverse Childhood Experiences in Relation to Recidivism and Social Functioning in Multi-problem Young Adults. Criminal Justice and Behavior. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854820975455
5: Edmark, K. (2005), Unemployment and Crime: Is There a Connection?. Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2005.00412.x
6: Prison Reform Trust, (2008). No One Knows. Available at: http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/No%20One%20Knows%20report-2.pdf
