This final tranche of posts in the “A Welsh Justice System” series looks at the consequences of crime and the possible options for Wales concerning the rehabilitation (and punishment) of criminals.
To start things off – “What are the causes and effects of crime in Wales?”
I touched on general crime levels and trends in the run-up to last year’s Police & Crime Commissioner elections (which made this bit a little easier).
Violent Offences
Following the general trend across EnglandandWales, reported violent crimes have increased in the four Welsh police force areas. In September 2020, the violent crime rate in Wales (30.9 incidents per 1,000 people) was higher than the EnglandandWales average (30.1).
Perhaps the biggest surprise is that North Wales tops the table in Wales and it’s driven mainly (in North Wales and Gwent) by significantly higher rates of what’s logged as “stalking and harassment”.
Sexual Offences
Again North Wales stands out, both for having the highest rate overall, but also seemingly having seen a significant decline in recorded sexual offences during 2019 and 2020.
The other forces are broadly similar and Wales has the same offence rate as England. The main problem here has been in securing convictions, with Wales having one of the lowest conviction rates for rape in EnglandandWales.
Crimes Against Property
Except for criminal damage and arson, the rates of crimes against property in Wales have been consistently lower than in England and were on a downward trend in all force areas by the end of 2020 (presumably pandemic-driven). There’s little you can take from this.
Drug Offences
The former PCC for North Wales, Arfon Jones, was particularly outspoken on drug laws and North Wales has maintained a below-average rate of drug offences.
I don’t know why – probably pronounced problems in the Llanelli area, as well as students – but the Dyfed-Powys force area has consistently maintained the highest drug offence rate when you would’ve perhaps expected a bigger problem in South Wales and Gwent.
Public Order Offences
Something has been happening in Gwent. It could simply be that the recording process has improved or people committing public order offences are being caught more often but the high rate in Gwent stands out quite dramatically. North Wales has seen problems too.
What are the usual outcomes of court cases?
The number of convictions has generally been falling. Research from the Wales Governance Centre7 found that in 2019 the conviction rate in Wales stood at 88% – however, the overall number of convictions has fallen by just over 2,400-a-year between 2013 and 2019.
The trend for immediate custodial sentences has also fallen (particularly for women and young offenders), though the proportion of immediate custodial sentences handed out in Welsh magistrates and crown courts remains higher than in England.
There’ll be more detail on this in Part XV.
7: Dr Robert Jones, Cardiff University (September 2020). Prison, Probation & Sentencing in Wales 2019.
