The penultimate local election preview looks at the five local authorities that make up most of the former county of Gwent or the Gwent Police force area – take your pick.
- Current Administration: Conservative majority.
- Current Leader: Cllr. Richard John (Con).
- Number of Seats (2022): 46 (+3).
- Current Seat Distribution: Conservative (23), Labour (8), Independents & Non-Affiliated (8), Liberal Democrats (3), Vacant seat (1).
Previous Results:
- 1995 – Labour control.
- 1999 – No Overall Control.
- 2004 – Conservative control.
- 2008 – Conservative control.
- 2012 – No Overall Control.
- 2017 – Conservative control.
Boundary changes could make this a tighter contest than expected as the Tories – mathematically – wouldn’t have a majority as things stand.
Apart from 1995, the Conservatives have always been the largest single group in the county and you would fully expect that to be the case again.
Labour could sense blood, having put up a full slate of candidates. They normally do well in the major towns in the county (Abergavenny, Caldicot, Chepstow) except Monmouth. Getting up to double figures would be a good achievement and may put them in a position to deny the Tories a majority.
The ones to watch could be the Lib Dems. As in Powys, if they can turn disgust towards the UK Government in Tory heartland areas to their advantage – because Tories may be willing to vote for them rather than Labour as a protest – then they could do well. They’ve only ever won 5 seats at most in previous elections, but even taking one or two could make the Conservatives sweat over their chances of retaining a majority.
Former Conservative MS, Nick Ramsay, is seeking a return to politics and is standing for the Liberal Democrats in Raglan – where there were only about 50 votes in it between themselves and the Conservatives in 2017.
The other thing to note is a large number of Green candidates (17), presumably standing in place of Plaid Cymru (who are putting up no candidates at county level at all) – whether as part of an unofficial agreement or not. Could they sneak a seat?
