In this first of four county-by-county previews over the coming week, here’s a summary of where things stand in the six northern local authorities.
- Current Administration: Independent-Conservative coalition.
- Current Leader: Cllr. Charlie McCoubrey (Ind).
- Number of Seats (2022): 55 (-4).
- Current Seat Distribution: Independents & Non-Affiliated (26), Conservative (15), Plaid Cymru (8), Labour (6), Lib Dems (4).
Previous Results:
- 1995 – No Overall Control.
- 1999 – No Overall Control.
- 2004 – No Overall Control.
- 2008 – No Overall Control.
- 2012 – No Overall Control.
- 2017 – No Overall Control.
While the constituency seats at Senedd and Westminster level (Aberconwy and Clwyd West) are held by Conservatives, at local government level it’s often been a wrestle between Independents and Conservatives for the top dog position.
Conwy will be very high up the list of authorities where the Conservatives will want to come out as the largest group, but they may struggle to get a majority even though they’re the only party/group to have put up a full slate of candidates.
Given the close working relationship between the Tories and some Independents, the outcome this year is likely to be the same – though the Conservatives would want to win enough seats to be the lead partner in a coalition (18-20 seats by my guess).
The only thing that may alter that outcome is if Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems manage to exceed expectations and put the option of a rainbow coalition on the table with the Independents.
Labour and the Lib Dems have seen a considerable drop in their councillor numbers over the years, from pushing 20 each in the 1990s to single figures now. Both parties seem to do better along the more built-up northern coast.
Plaid Cymru support has remained stable over the years. Given the attention focused there by the party leadership, perhaps they believe they can get their councillor numbers into the teens and push to become the largest opposition party. Their support has long been concentrated in the rural south of the county and there’ve been several boundary changes there.
One ominous sign for Plaid is that a former Senedd candidate, Trystan Lewis – once considered one of the party’s rising stars and who came close close to winning Aberconwy in 2016 – is standing as an Independent against Plaid Cymru in the Llansannan ward.
