While I’ll be doing the Bridgend-related local election stuff over at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr – starting shortly after this – here’s a look at what the main parties (and some smaller ones) might be seeking to achieve in May at an all-Wales level and what position they might be in to achieve those ambitions.
- Number of councillors (2017): 473
- Councils in outright control (7): Caerphilly, Cardiff, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Swansea, Torfaen.
- Councils in minority control (2): Bridgend, Flintshire.
- Councils in a ruling coalition (2): Pembrokeshire (with Independents, Plaid Cymru & Lib Dems), Vale of Glamorgan (with Independents).
The initial impression I get from Labour’s campaign so far is that they’re eager to turn this into a mid-term referendum on the performance of the Conservative UK Government.
That usually works for them. Keir Starmer and Boris Johnson have bugger all to do with whether the bins are collected on time, planning decisions and setting council tax, yet voters are yet again being encouraged to “send a message” to the latter regardless.
Putting that to one side, Labour are in a strong position. They’re in outright control or minority control of nine authorities and form part of ruling coalitions in a further two – meaning they’re involved in running half of Wales’ county councils.
A decent performance would see them retain control of the councils they currently run by themselves, taking outright control of Flintshire and retaining minority control of Bridgend (if not narrowly securing majority control). Merthyr Tydfil looks like it could potentially be easy pickings too.
A good night could potentially see them do all of that and play some involvement in running Carmarthenshire, Vale of Glamorgan and Denbighshire by becoming the largest party group in each of them.
Blaenau Gwent has swung back and forth between Independent and Labour control in the previous few local elections. Based on that pattern it would be Labour’s “turn” this year, but they would have to make significant gains to make that happen.
A great night would see them take or extend their overall control of all of the valleys local authorities and make a big comeback in places like Wrexham and Anglesey.
There are some individual ward-level contests where they could struggle due to boundary reorganisations, but they ought to be cautiously optimistic that they’re not going to be any worse off nationally than they are now – even if their campaign has got off to a seemingly uninspired start.
