While I’ll be doing the Bridgend-related local election stuff over at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr – starting shortly after this – here’s a look at what the main parties (and some smaller ones) might be seeking to achieve in May at an all-Wales level and what position they might be in to achieve those ambitions.
- Number of councillors (2017): 203
- Councils in outright control (1): Gwynedd.
- Councils in a ruling coalition (5): Carmarthenshire (with Independents), Ceredigion (with Independents), Denbighshire (with Conservatives and Independents), Pembrokeshire (with Labour, Independents and Lib Dems), Ynys Môn (with Independents).
Plaid Cymru has focused on the record of the few councils they run (or are involved in running) over the last term. That’s a good idea as people living in large parts of Wales probably have little to no inkling as to what what a Plaid Cymru-run local authority means as, at best, the party only has a single-figure number of councillors.
They’ve put their Senedd agreement with Labour front and centre – particularly universal free school meals in primary schools – and have arguably one of the few eye-catching policies at this election, which is a pledge that Plaid Cymru-run councils would extend free school meals to all secondary school pupils.
One of the more noticeable things this year has been the sharp drop in Plaid candidates in some local authorities compared to 2017, though there are exceptions to this such as Wrexham. That’s a worrying sign as it can’t all be down to the cut in the number of councillors because of the boundary review, but it may not turn out that bad if they win where they need to win and could be interpreted as a careful targeting of resources.
Realistically, they should be aiming for retention of control over Gwynedd and taking outright control of Anglesey, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion. To do that they only have to win a handful of seats compared to 2017, but boundary changes may complicate matters.
There are other local authorities where they would want to maintain their current presence – particularly Rhondda Cynon Taf, Neath Port Talbot, Caerphilly – and build upon their current number of councillors in places like Conwy, Denbighshire and Wrexham.
Based on the party’s manoeuvres over the last couple of weeks, regaining a foothold in Cardiff seems to be a priority following their local Common Ground alliance with the Greens. Given the hype machine behind it, that agreement has to deliver – perhaps a modest target of up to 6 seats – or it’ll be something of an embarrassment. Two perennially underachieving parties joining forces to underachieve together would be typical of both.
Moderate gains of maybe 12-15+ seats overall on what they got in 2017 would be a realistic goal. That wouldn’t be as bad as it sounds if it results in taking outright control of councils, even if those gains are likely to come in Y Fro yet again.
A sizable reversal though – particularly in the valleys – would start mumbling in the background on Adam Price’s future as leader, particularly if the focus on places like Cardiff means Plaid take their eye off the ball in more promising areas or it results in them losing senior councillors.
