While I’ll be doing the Bridgend-related local election stuff over at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr – starting shortly after this – here’s a look at what the main parties (and some smaller ones) might be seeking to achieve in May at an all-Wales level and what position they might be in to achieve those ambitions.
Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems used to be one of the most influential parties in Welsh local government – and they remain more than just a minor party in Welsh local government with around 60 seats – but their fortunes there faded along with the fortunes of the party more generally. They used to form part of administrations that once ran the likes of Cardiff and Swansea, but nowadays outside of their heartlands in central Wales and the west you would probably struggle to find many Lib Dem councillors. Many have suffered the humiliation of having to join Independent opposition groups on some local authorities in order to maintain some influence.
The only counties where they have any serious, meaningful representation at the moment are Powys, Ceredigion, Cardiff and Swansea. Again, these are probably where you would expect the Lib Dems to do well but they might face more competition that usual from the likes of the Greens. In many other parts of Wales, keeping their current seats and adding even a half dozen to them nationally would count as “doing well”.
If they can put themselves in a position to be part of a ruling administration anywhere, then it would count as a good night.
Greens
Cardiff will be the obvious place to watch following the Common Ground alliance with Plaid Cymru, with a joint ticket preventing vote splitting between the two eco-left parties.
The Greens have, to their credit, put up a lot of candidates this year. Under the Common Grown alliance, they (technically) have close to a full slate in Cardiff – even if the majority of candidates in that pact seem to be Plaid members – and they also appear to have respectable numbers in Monmouthshire (17 candidates) and Swansea (13).
However, they seem to have lost a large number of candidates in Powys and the first elected Green county councillor in Wales – Emily Durrant – has since defected to Plaid Cymru and isn’t standing this year.
At pretty much every election I say that “the Greens need to make a breakthrough” and they never do, so there’s no point in saying it again. Cardiff may be their safest and only bet at county level.
Propel
While they have long had to prove that they’re something other than a Cardiff version of Llais Gwynedd or a personal vehicle for Neil McEvoy, unsurprisingly the vast majority of Propel candidates (36 out of a total of around 45-50 nationwide) are standing in the capital.
They secured a few defectors in other local authorities over the last two years (mainly from Plaid Cymru). In the short time since then however, Propel seem to have gone backwards following the blowout in 2021, having lost quite a few members (based on a glance at candidate notices and party declarations).
Keeping the three seats they currently have in Cardiff’s Fairwater ward – and maybe adding one or two to it in neighbouring wards like Ely and Caerau – ought to be the realistic expectation.
Elsewhere
There are seemingly no Llais Gwynedd candidates running, though it appears as though two former Llais Gwynedd candidates have already been elected unopposed running as Independents.
Similarly, there are several former and current Abolish the Assembly members running as Independents – most notably their only current councillor (in Powys), Claire Mills. At least one candidate is running under the Abolish banner (in the Vale of Glamorgan).
It does look as though Gwlad have secured some community councillors in Rhondda Cynon Taf through uncontested seats. They’re also standing a few candidates at county level, with their best hopes of winning local authority representation perhaps being in Carmarthenshire, where Sian Caiach is standing.
Other parties that have put up candidates this year include:
- Sovereign Party – I think this was formerly called Sovereign Wales; they’re standing four candidates in Cardiff, not sure about elsewhere.
- Trade Union & Socialist Coalition (TUSC).
- Communist Party.
- Reform UK – the successor to the Brexit Party, putting up surprisingly few candidates.
- Heritage Party – UKIP splinter group.
- Britain First – standing at least one candidate (in Rhondda Cynon Taf).
- Social Democratic Party (SDP).
- Women’s Equality Party.
- Breakthrough Party – a socialist Labour splinter group.
- Volt – a pro-Federal Europe party.
- Freedom Alliance – an anti-lockdown party that ran a lot of candidates in the 2021 Senedd election.
