While I’ll be doing the Bridgend-related local election stuff over at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr – starting shortly after this – here’s a look at what the main parties (and some smaller ones) might be seeking to achieve in May at an all-Wales level and what position they might be in to achieve those ambitions.
- Number of councillors (2017): 324
- Councils in outright control (1): Blaenau Gwent.
- Councils in minority control (1): Merthyr Tydfil (though a majority of councillors are in different Independent groups).
- Councils in a ruling coalition: (9): Carmarthenshire (with Plaid Cymru), Ceredigion (with Plaid Cymru), Conwy (with Conservatives), Denbighshire (with Conservatives and Plaid Cymru), Pembrokeshire (with Labour, Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems), Powys (with Conservatives), Vale of Glamorgan (with Labour), Wrexham (with Conservatives), Ynys Môn (with Plaid Cymru).
Wales is one of the last strongholds of traditional Independents and they’re currently the second largest faction in local government.
There won’t be any single set of expectations due to the nature of Independent candidates. They’ll naturally have the flexibility to campaign on local issues and they’re not beholden to any party interests.
Independent candidates usually don’t do well at national level, but there were some standout performances in 2021 and they already control – or are involved in running – eleven local authorities, going toe-to-toe with Labour.
Independents have always been viewed with some level of suspicion by members of organised political parties – usually but not always labelled as “Tories in disguise” (particularly by Labour supporters) – even if they’re often people who’ve been party members in the past (details that are now available on the nomination statements).
Some have gone further and formed formal Independent “parties” – one of the more successful ones in 2017 being the Newport Independents.
Despite the “champion of the community” stereotype, some Independent-run local authorities and community councils have been embroiled in mismanagement scandals. The most notable is Merthyr Tydfil, where the Welsh Government intervened to appoint an improvement board during 2019-2021 and the leader was suspended for a code of conduct breach.
The leader of Blaenau Gwent Council – another key Labour target – faced a no-confidence motion in March after Audit Wales published a damning report into the management of a council-owned waste company.
It’s hard to tell where the Independents will do well or fall short because it’ll be dependent on local circumstances. You would expect Labour to go hard to take back Merthyr (as mentioned) and the Blaenau Gwent “electoral cycle” favours Labour this year too.
Historically, Independents have never seemed to do well in Cardiff, Caerphilly and Rhondda Cynon Taf and their influence has waned in places like Swansea and Neath Port Talbot.
You would nonetheless expect Independents to remain influential in Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan and most of the councils in the north.
There’s a general expectation that Independents could improve on their performance in Bridgend compared to 2017 too, but might fall short of being able to form an alternative administration to Labour.
