While I’ll be doing the Bridgend-related local election stuff over at Oggy Bloggy Ogwr – starting shortly after this – here’s a look at what the main parties (and some smaller ones) might be seeking to achieve in May at an all-Wales level and what position they might be in to achieve those ambitions.
- Number of councillors (2017): 185
- Councils in outright control (1): Monmouthshire.
- Councils in a ruling coalition (4): Conwy (with Independents), Denbighshire (with Independents and Plaid Cymru), Powys (with Independents), Wrexham (with Independents).
On paper, you would anticipate a tough election for the Conservatives. In normal circumstances, the sheer number of scandals, PR blunders and culture war stoking would result in a backlash – but their core support seems to be holding up.
Within Wales, the Conservatives have often tried to stoke inter-regional resentment by consistently pointing out supposed biases in local government funding. You would also expect them to pledge to either cut or freeze council tax wherever they’re standing. While they say they want to focus on local issues “that matter to people”, it won’t be played like will it?
They performed well in 2017, but since then have had a patchy record at council level and lost quite a few seats due to defections, infighting etc.- notably in Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan.
While there appear to be localised drops in candidate numbers compared to 2017 – especially Swansea – the Conservatives have put up an apparent record number of candidates overall. That has to be positive for them.
At present, the Conservatives control a single council outright (Monmouthshire), though they’re involved in ruling coalitions in a further four – so they’re in a similar position to Plaid Cymru as things stand, though further away from outright controlling any other councils without big gains.
They have to retain control of Monmouthshire at the very least. They would probably want to be the single largest party/in a position to form a coalition in the “Blue Wall” areas in the northeast – Wrexham, Denbighshire, Conwy. They’ve often threatened to do something in Newport too.
The northern Cardiff suburbs may be fruitful ground for them given some seemingly favourable boundary reorganisations which haven’t hit them as hard as other parties. I don’t think they’d be in a position to form an alternative administration in Cardiff, but they’d want to retain their place as the largest opposition group.
Pembrokeshire and Powys are strange ones. Despite Tory success at Westminster and Senedd level, they’ve often struggled to take seats off Independents at council level.
It’s probably in places where they’ve had localised fallings-out or a few unexpected victories in 2017 where you might see the Tories fall back. Overall, they would probably want to challenge Plaid Cymru for second place amongst the political parties.
