(Title Image: New Statesman)
Beginning a short series of more in-depth examinations of the performance of the parties in the 2021 Senedd election, I start with the undoubted winners – Labour.
A vote of confidence (from those who bothered to vote) in the Welsh Government’s handling of the pandemic and Mark Drakeford – Mark Drakeford has said himself that the pandemic response is probably what tipped things heavily in Labour’s favour and he’s probably right.
The Conservatives made a lot of noise about parts of the economy hardest hit by the pandemic and promising pork, while Plaid tried to present a vision for radical change post-pandemic. The problem there is that businesses don’t vote and the pandemic isn’t over yet.
The story of one business owner whose livelihood has been affected by the pandemic is certainly something that will resonate with people, but many of those will have also either enjoyed the recent easing of lockdown restrictions or been through the very efficient and successful vaccination programme. In the battle between placing public health or the economy top of the pandemic response, public health won in Wales (and it’s not as if the Welsh Government haven’t done anything to support businesses on top of UK Government support).
I mentioned previously that there is a lot of soft dislike for Mark Drakeford out there (the harsher “Dripford” types can be safely ignored), but it’s probably because of frustration at his cautious approach to lockdown rather than any disagreement with it. Broadly, the public thinks he’s got it right. He certainly hasn’t across the board – but that’s best dealt with in more detail after the pandemic.
Mark’s Red Army – Labour’s “Get Out the Vote” operation in Wales is second to none and it can only be matched or bettered by the Conservatives during Westminster elections. Labour can call on activists, trade unionists and a large number of councillors (which is why Plaid and the Tories need to take next year’s local elections seriously) to show up at a moment’s notice, deliver leaflets, drive people to polling stations etc.
Some of that may not have been possible this year. Even then anyone living in one of the key seats or council wards were probably visited by Labour activists at least twice and received at least five/six leaflets (from my experiences in Bridgend). While I would take the tales of “hearing good things on the doorstep” with a pinch of salt (I’ve never seen anyone answer the door to a political canvasser and I live in a key Labour ward), just being seen by as many people as possible to put in the effort can be enough. The problem is we don’t see them outside of elections.
The backroom organisation, mobilisation and alike is operating at several levels above Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives even in lean years. When it comes together perfectly, you get results like this.
The Tesco Party – Labour are far more effective at being a big tent than the more narrowly-defined Plaid Cymru and Conservatives.
They’re nationalist and patriotic without being IndyConfident. They talk the talk on being radical but more often than not act more predictably and conservatively. They even allow some level of internal dissent from the party’s agreed positions – unlike Scottish Labour, independence-supporting voices in Welsh Labour are tolerated. Labour have bent in the wind to accommodate the growth of YesCymru, while their MPs can berate “separatists” on social media knowing full well they’ll be standing on different issues to their MS colleagues.
In many ways, Labour in Wales is a bit like Tesco.
The public like the idea of supporting the independent local shop or farmers market (Plaid, Greens) and think Waitrose (Tories) are better because they charge higher prices, do a good Christmas advert and the right sort of people shop there. Tesco is everywhere though even if they’re more concentrated in some places than others.
People will go to those other stores occasionally and they’ll have regular customers but most people end up at Tesco. The local Somerfield closed years ago and you have to go miles to the nearest Co-Op (Lib Dems). Some old men will be drinking Special Brew in the car park and shitting in the bushes (Abolish the Assembly, UKIP etc.)
Customers will complain about produce that’s gone off or rude staff now and again, but the dull reliability, predictability, resilience and loyalty scheme keeps them coming back.
It’s not spectacular. It’s not glamorous. But people know what they’re going to get. It’s not restricted to organic locally-sourced in-season produce (Plaid, Greens) and you won’t get funny looks if you use the wrong credit card or complain about being charged £3.50 for two proudly British chicken breasts (Tories). I may be going a bit too far with these supermarket analogies, but the challenge to Plaid, in particular, is to become Aldi or Lidl.
